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Hungary's unemployment rate rose to 4.7% in August 2026, with the three-month average at 4.8%, just below a 10-year high. The number of unemployed reached roughly 230,000–235,000. Employment fell by about 21,000 from July, driven by retirements and workforce…
Global markets stayed resilient after a rates sell-off, with the 10-year UST yield rising about 8bp to 5.20% and futures pricing a 71% chance of an October Fed hike. Supporting data: jobless claims at 197k and new-home sales up 6.4%. Norway hiked, Sweden…
Oil fell as US and Iranian negotiators explored a phased deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, with Brent near USD 105/b and WTI below USD 93/b. Iran reportedly proposed a seven-day reopening if conditions are met, though prior diplomacy failed. Supply risks…
Commodities showed resilience despite the US 10-year yield hitting a 19-year high above 5.2% and a stronger dollar. Precious metals fell about 2% with gold down 1.8% to test $4,235 support. Industrial metals gained 0.8%, led by copper up 1.5% on tight China…
Saxo's 25 September options brief reports MOVE, the Treasury volatility index, closed above 100 for the first time in its three-month store, rising 9.56% to 104.58, while the S&P 500 closed just 0.02% lower. The 30-year yield touched 5.50%, its highest since…
Early industry data indicate Canadian real GDP stalled in July after averaging 0.4% monthly gains in Q2. Manufacturing, wholesale and retail sales fell, though manufacturing GDP was likely near flat given weakness in petroleum and autos. Oil and gas output…
Next week brings September flash CPI for Poland and Kazakhstan and Czech second-quarter GDP details with industrial PMI. Poland's headline CPI is estimated above 4.0% year-on-year after the fuel VAT cut expired and crude rose, exceeding the National Bank of…
Energy-market rebalancing is slipping further away. The partial Hormuz blockade, Red Sea disruption and attacks on Saudi infrastructure keep oil and gas prices elevated, lifting inflation and delaying rate cuts. Under the baseline, assuming oil below $80 from…
The dollar starts next week dominant, near two-month highs, supported by a hawkish Fed and Treasury yields at multi-decade peaks; markets price an 83% chance of a further October hike. EUR/USD sits near 1.14 after a 300-pip monthly slide, GBP/USD near 1.32,…
The September US jobs report, due Friday, is expected to show roughly 100k jobs added with unemployment holding at 4.1%, leaving an October Fed rate hike in play, with a downward revision to August also anticipated. Eurozone inflation data will be watched for…
ING expects the Reserve Bank of Australia to hike the cash rate 25bp to 4.6% on 29 September 2026, citing sticky trimmed mean inflation at 3.6% y/y, resilient labour demand (three-month average job creation of 34k, participation at a record 67.1%) and higher…
Risk sentiment improved briefly on reports of a phased US-Iran deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, but hurdles remain. Tightening bias broadened: Norway hiked, Sweden signalled a hike, BoE's Lombardelli and Breeden moved closer to a hike, and Fed's Paulson…
Eurozone M3 money supply grew 3.5% year-on-year in August 2026, up from 3.4% in July, while private-sector credit rose 3.6%. Household loan growth held at 3.1%, corporate loans slowed to 4.2% from 4.4%. The ECB's balance sheet reduction still weighs on M3.…
USD strength has slowed and looks stretched near-term. Thursday's long-end Treasury yield rise failed to lift the dollar as it had before, while the short end stalled after Wednesday's PMI-driven jump, implying the market is wary of pricing more Fed…
Saxo Bank's quick take notes Brent trading near USD 105.4 after a USD 10 weekly range, as talk of a Qatar-mediated phased Strait of Hormuz deal with Iran offsets Houthi missile attacks on Saudi cities. The 30-year Treasury yield reached 5.50%, its highest…
ING expects the RBA to raise rates 25bp, citing tight labour markets, upside Q2 GDP surprise and firm inflation; August CPI seen at 4.1% YoY. China's official manufacturing PMI is forecast at 50.1 and non-manufacturing at 49.2. Japan's services PPI seen at…
A global bond sell-off has pushed back-end yields higher, triggering risk-off flows that help the dollar consolidate recent gains. Oil remains bid after a failed UN summit and scepticism over US-Iran talks, keeping upside risks for rates. ING sees Brent…
Germany's GfK consumer confidence indicator fell in September 2026 to its lowest level since May, contradicting recent improvements in the Ifo index and PMIs. Income expectations slumped on labour market uncertainty and fears of higher prices; buying…
Westpac's September 2026 Housing Pulse says Australia's housing correction has broadened and intensified since early 2026. Turnover may be stabilising but at a weak level, with prices still falling. With underlying inflation above the RBA's 2-3% target and…
Global monetary conditions are tightening except in China, with elevated U.S. long-term yields and less offshore dollar support from the Gulf and China. Despite increased risk in the Gulf, crude flows through Hormuz have adapted but remain below pre-war…