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Between 2015 and 2019, euro area goods exports from the major economies moved largely in tandem; since 2023, trajectories have diverged, with Southern European resilience tied to successive rotations across capital goods, chemicals, energy, manufactured and…
Standard Chartered argues money is becoming a spectrum of deposits, tokenised deposits, stablecoins and tokenised money market funds, and that treasury's task is choosing the right rail, form and settlement asset per transaction. Fragmentation persists…
Dutch headline HICP inflation rose to 3.0% YoY in September from 2.8% in August. Fuel was the main driver, with motor fuel prices up 27.3% YoY, while services inflation accelerated to 3.8% and mobile phone prices also contributed. Supermarket food, especially…
ASML (14 Oct) and TSMC (15 Oct) report amid a semiconductor selloff driven by higher bond yields, geopolitical risk and AI capex doubts. TSMC already posted Q3 revenue of NT$1.49tn, up about 51% year-on-year. ASML plans roughly 65 low-NA EUV units in 2026,…
State Street upgraded its US dollar view from negative to neutral after a September rally driven by higher yields, elevated oil and resilient US growth; it flags the dollar as most likely to break higher out of an 18-month range and the euro as most likely to…
US-Iran conflict escalation has raised CEE inflation risk via energy, food and record shipping costs, echoing 2022. Core inflation is still stable because pass-through is slow and weak food prices delayed the shock, but base effects are fading and January…
USD/JPY traded near 158, capped by the 200-day moving average around 158.50, after opening the week at 157.73. Speculation over US attacks on Iran supported oil and commodity currencies. September CPI on 14 October and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's 15 October…
The yen has firmed modestly, with USD/JPY nearing 158.00 after trading just below its 200-day moving average near 158.50 this month. Intervention risk and expected BoJ tightening are capping the pair's upside even as broad USD strength persists. MUFG expects…
Asian chip stocks plunged after a Chinese memory design advance by CXMT; the Kospi fell 6.12%, triggering a sell-side curb, with Samsung and SK Hynix hit. US bank earnings and key data (US CPI, Fed speakers) loom. Oil eased to USD 105.50 after Monday's spike,…
RBA minutes show the board unanimously raised the cash rate 25bp to 4.60% in September and remains open to further increases if required. Members cited stronger domestic capacity pressures, higher oil prices and AI-related demand as inflation risks. CBA's…
Citi remains in the 'resilience' camp on global equities, citing a firm macro backdrop and consensus MSCI AC World EPS growth of +35% this year, decelerating to +16% in 2027. Three headwinds are acknowledged — Fed hiking, geopolitics, French OAT-Bund spreads…
Tokenization is shifting from pilot to production, driven by system upgrades, regulated on-chain money, and regulatory clarity. This enables atomic, 24/7 collateral settlement, widens the eligible asset universe, and boosts cross-border mobility. A hybrid…
US banks report Q3 results on 13–14 October, with JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup and Wells Fargo first, then Bank of America and Morgan Stanley. Analysts expect healthy profits even after the KBW Bank Index fell about 13% since August on rising Treasury…
US equities closed mixed: S&P flat, Dow +0.4%, Nasdaq -0.4%, with memory-chip and semiconductor names down 4-10% after China's CXMT DRAM progress. Brent rose 1.8% to USD106.7/bbl and WTI 2.0% to USD93.7/bbl on Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia and continuing…
ICE Brent settled 1.8% higher, just shy of $107/bbl, as Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia and Persian Gulf supply risks outweigh scepticism over the Russia-Ukraine energy ceasefire. Hurricane-related shut-ins in the Gulf of Mexico have fallen to 605k b/d. TTF…
The RBI's new FX measures, including a 20% FERR on large USD/INR forwards, helped spot INR strengthen 1% in a day. But pressure moved to forward premia, wider onshore-offshore spreads and higher bond yields. MUFG expects USD/INR to rise gradually to 97.50 by…
Scotiabank keeps its broad growth outlook largely unchanged: US activity is more resilient than earlier estimated after upward revisions (Q2 GDP +2.2%), while Canadian growth holds up and is expected to accelerate in 2027. Tighter financial conditions partly…
MUFG expects the 10-year JGB yield to stay elevated near 3% in the week of October 13, with an intraday range of 2.965%-3.115%. The 2-year-forward 1-month TONA OIS rate, a proxy for terminal-rate expectations, is seen holding around 2.5%, the top of the BoJ's…
MUFG forecasts September 2026 headline CPI at 0.52% MoM (3.6% YoY) and core at 0.19% MoM (2.4% YoY), in line with consensus. Core goods face tariff and import/energy pressure, partly offset by used-auto deflation, while wireless services and lodging…
Turkey's current account posted a USD 4.05bn surplus in August on seasonal tourism and a narrower energy-driven goods deficit. MUFG expects the CBRT to look through this seasonal improvement at its 22 October meeting, as Brent holds above USD 100/b and FX…