Asia week ahead: RBA decision, key data on China, Japan, Korea, Indonesia · THINK Economic and financial analysis
中文标题
亚洲一周前瞻：澳洲联储决议，中国、日本、韩国、印尼关键数据 · THINK 经济与金融分析
Core conclusion · Tlines extraction
ING expects the RBA to raise rates 25bp, citing tight labour markets, upside Q2 GDP surprise and firm inflation; August CPI seen at 4.1% YoY. China's official manufacturing PMI is forecast at 50.1 and non-manufacturing at 49.2. Japan's services PPI seen at 3.6% YoY and Tokyo headline CPI at 2.5%. South Korea's CPI expected to ease to 3.0%. Indonesia's CPI is forecast at 3.3% YoY on El Niño food pressures.
- Institution
- ING THINK
- Published
- 09/25/2026
- Research topic
- Inflation · Semiconductors
- Time horizon
- Not explicitly stated
Key arguments
- RBA is expected to hike 25bp, with risks still tilted to the upside and further vigilance needed to return prices sustainably to target.
- China's official PMIs should show a modest recovery, with manufacturing at 50.1 and non-manufacturing at 49.2.
- Japan's activity and inflation data are forecast to show firm price pressures, with Tokyo headline CPI accelerating to 2.5% YoY.
- Indonesia's CPI is set to accelerate to 3.3% YoY on El Niño-driven food prices, led by rice, with spillovers into core inflation.
Key numbers
- RBA rate hike expected
- 25bp
- Australia August CPI YoY
- 4.1%
- China official manufacturing PMI
- 50.1
- Tokyo headline CPI YoY
- 2.5%
- Indonesia CPI YoY
- 3.3%
Main risks
- RBA may not hike if housing market cooling outweighs tight labour market and upside inflation risks.
- China's export-oriented RatingDog PMI could outperform official PMIs, complicating the recovery picture.
- El Niño-driven food price increases in Indonesia could feed into core inflation more than expected.
Corresponding source evidence
Separately, August CPI data is likely to accelerate further to 4.1% year-on-year, driven primarily by higher diesel and food prices, alongside persistent underlying core inflation pressures.
We look for the National Bureau of Statistics to report a slight recovery in its official manufacturing and non- manufacturing PMIs to 50.1 and 49.2, respectively.
Growth in the series has been moderating over the past 3 months, even as overall profits have improved from previous years.
Context: the conclusion is Tlines' automated extraction, not the institution's wording. Quoted evidence is publisher wording. Scope and date must travel with the conclusion.
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AI analysis
Cross-institution comparison · CPI
How this page was produced
Tlines extracted the conclusion, arguments, numbers and risks above from the report published by ING THINK on 09/25/2026, then structured them for comparison. The publisher's own wording is reachable through the source link on this page and is displayed in full above. Last updated 10/17/2026. Methodology · Source policy · AI usage · Request a correction