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With Brent near $100, sterling money markets price more than four Bank of England hikes, taking SONIA to about 4.75%. ING's economist disagrees: the BoE is expected to hold and eventually cut to 3.25% by mid-2027 as inflation converges to target by mid-2027…
The ECB hike discount is stretched, but hard to lean against given high uncertainty. Liquidity conditions will continue to tighten. Repo markets should absorb the adjustment, but a higher reserve requirement, year-end pressures or ECB borrowing stigma could…
State Street's Q3 2026 white paper argues gold is a portfolio diversifier with historical staying power. In 14 S&P 500 peak-to-trough drawdowns greater than 15%, gold averaged +5.89% versus -23.70% for the index, with positive returns in eleven. The paper…
In the week to 22 September 2026, surging US Treasury yields and renewed Fed tightening expectations lifted the Dollar Index about 1% and prompted speculators to rebuild the aggregate dollar long from $5.9bn to $18.4bn. Yen longs were cut by 48k contracts…
President Trump's rejection of Iran's proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz has revived supply-disruption fears, pushing Brent above USD 107 while global bond yields hit fresh cycle highs. Gold broke below USD 4,230 support and silver tumbled over 4% as…
Emerging markets are no longer a commodity-cycle proxy: IT is now the largest sector in the MSCI EM Index, credit quality has improved, reserves exceed $7tn and a weaker dollar plus light positioning support returns. Valuations still reflect old assumptions,…
OCBC revises its RBA call to a 25bp hike at the September 2026 meeting, lifting the cash rate to 4.60% from 4.35%, citing resilient labour demand (employment +39,500; hours worked +13.7mn) and high participation (67.1%). A single 25bp cut is now expected in…
MUFG argues the macro backdrop remains supportive of a stronger US dollar, with the dollar index near year-to-date highs and next resistance at the 24 June high of 101.80. Oil near USD110/bbl on stalled US-Iran talks keeps upward pressure on US yields;…
Micron enters earnings with record revenue, roughly 86% guided gross margin and about $31 non-GAAP EPS. Saxo argues the debate has shifted from earnings growth to durability: whether AI and HBM have structurally raised Micron's earnings power or whether…
The dollar's recent rally faces downside risks as markets await US September jobs data, with October FOMC hike pricing at 16bp. ING expects a consensus 90k payrolls print with possible August revisions lower, keeping hike odds above 50% but unlikely to…
Commonwealth Bank's Regional Movers Index for the March 2026 quarter shows average regional home buyers are 33. Net internal migration growth hotspots span five states, led by Tasmania's Meander Valley with a 1028% rise, followed by South Australia's Loxton…
Wellington argues investment-grade private credit can be added to corporate DB liability-hedging portfolios with nominal tracking-risk impact, since it is fixed-rate, IG-rated, long-duration debt. Plans may need at least 5%-10% of liability-hedging assets to…
The State Street Floating Rate Fund returned 0.38% net in August, beating its benchmark by 0.01%. The RBA held the cash rate at 4.35% but kept a tightening bias. Stronger Q2 GDP and firm CPI prompted the fund to expect a September hike and another in…
AI-driven data center demand is forecast to generate $3.8 trillion in global AI-related capital expenditure by 2030, but power access delays nearly 40% of U.S. projects, while complex contracts and semiconductor shortages raise costs. Trade finance tools such…
PIMCO finds AI-linked hyperscalers now supply almost one quarter of USD nonfinancial bonds, up from under 13% last year and 4% in 2024. Yet the evidence for cash-flow crowding out of other corporate borrowers is weak. Repricing is visible: A-rated…
MUFG reports USD/JPY opened the week at 156.98, rose to 159.03 on Fed hike expectations, then pulled back below 158.50 after Finance Minister Katayama's warning. A clear break of the 200-day moving average near 158.50 would put 160 back in reach. A December…
The Trump-Xi summit extended the US-China trade truce by two months to 10 January 2027, high on symbolism but light on substantive breakthroughs. OCBC argues a narrow 'G2 interface' — bilateral crisis management, including a new AI dialogue — is emerging atop…
Natixis argues the November 2026 US-China summit left China with the upper hand, with the trade truce and China's rare-earth export controls deferred only to Jan. 10 instead of a year. As Xi landed, the 10-year Treasury yield rose about 16bp above 5.1%, the…
Asia FX faces a tougher external backdrop as elevated Brent crude and high global yields reinforce each other; the spot-over-front-month Brent premium has risen to about US$18/bbl from a negative spread in early September, and the US 10-year yield is above…
ING examines how US Treasury Secretary Bessent could lower the 10yr yield. If the Treasury cancels 10yr, 20yr and 30yr auctions, adds buybacks, and the 10yr SOFR rate falls 50bp to 4.25%, the 10yr Treasury yield could drop 100bp from 5.25% to 4.25%, touching…