'Westpac Housing Pulse September 2026'

中文标题

西太平洋银行 Housing Pulse 2026年9月

Westpac / Westpac IQ09/25/2026updated 10/17/2026

Multiple economies

Citable research brief

Core conclusion · Tlines extraction

Westpac's September 2026 Housing Pulse says Australia's housing correction has broadened and intensified since early 2026. Turnover may be stabilising but at a weak level, with prices still falling. With underlying inflation above the RBA's 2-3% target and oil above US$100/bbl, the RBA is widely expected to raise rates again in September, with risk of a further increase. Westpac now forecasts a 7.3% peak-to-trough price decline, similar to 2022, and sees the run into year-end as particularly nervy.

Institution: Westpac / Westpac IQ
Published: 09/25/2026
Research topic: Crude Oil (WTI)
Time horizon: November 2026 · 2022 · 2026

Crude Oil (WTI) · WTI

Key arguments

The housing correction that began in early 2026 has broadened and intensified, with prices still moving lower.
Rate rises and uncertainty over housing-related tax policy changes risk creating an 'air pocket' and thin trading conditions.
The Westpac Consumer Housing Sentiment Index is shading lower, pointing to a 25% turnover decline versus the initial 20% forecast.
Minimal selling pressure and a relatively tight physical and on-market supply-demand balance should limit the correction.

Key numbers

Peak-to-trough house price decline forecast: 7.3%
Revised turnover decline forecast: 25%
Initial turnover decline forecast: 20%
RBA underlying inflation target band: 2-3%
Oil price level: above US$100/bbl

Main risks

A steeper drop in activity could produce thin trading conditions, raising the risk of more volatile and weaker price outcomes and an air of panic.
Underlying inflation above the RBA's 2-3% target band, with oil above US$100/bbl, could see the RBA deliver another rate rise in September with a clear risk of a further increase.
Heightened uncertainty about the impact of housing-related tax policy changes could compound the downdraft from rate rises.

Corresponding source evidence

6 Housing forecast update 8 Prudential policy update 10 State by state NSW: buyers’ market 12 Vic: testing limits 14 Qld: sudden stop 16 WA: abrupt weakening 18 SA: goldilocks?
The next issue will be published 20 November 2026. · November 2026
Additional material: charts & tables 26 Summary & forecast tables Economic & financial forecasts 32 Housing market data 34 Appendix 38 westpaciq.com.au EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

Context: the conclusion is Tlines' automated extraction, not the institution's wording. Quoted evidence is publisher wording. Scope and date must travel with the conclusion.

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