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Global rates rose and pulled New Zealand along. Strong US data and resurgent oil pushed US yields higher, lifting NZ rates and cutting the trade-weighted index 4% below the RBNZ's September MPS assumption. Markets price about a 75% chance of an OCR hike on 28…
Westpac expects the RBA to hike the cash rate 25bp to 4.60% at its September meeting, with a split vote likely amid disagreement over trend supply capacity. August CPI is forecast at 0.4%mth with upside risk, trimmed mean at 0.2%mth. Employment rose 39.5k but…
The US 10-year minus 2-year Treasury spread has narrowed to just under 30 basis points, a bear flattening that could invert. UBS CIO argues the slope shows tighter policy, not an imminent recession: PMI strength, solid jobs, and 25% S&P 500 earnings growth…
Scotiabank's Latam Weekly previews Chile GDP, Peru CPI and Colombia's BanRep decision, plus Mexican trade and Brazilian industrial production, ahead of Friday's US nonfarm payrolls. BanRep is likely to hold at 12.00%. Despite weak Chilean activity, the BCCh's…
The 2026 rate path shifted from anticipated cuts to a possible modest tightening before year-end, producing a bear steepening of the yield curve and higher real yields and term premia. Credit markets stayed well behaved, with brief volatility and spread…
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The latest Short Interest Monitor highlights American Airlines (new to the list) on surging jet fuel costs (~$1B Q4 hit, $10M per 1c/quarter), plus CAVA Group and Macy's. All 10 listed equities have market caps of at least $2B and short interest of at least…
Peru's mining investment reached USD 4.12bn in Jan–Jul 2026, up 45.0% y/y, with July alone at USD 812.2mn (+55.1% y/y), concentrated in existing operations and Southern Peru's Tía María project, which is over 47% complete and targets production by end-2027.…
TD Economics reports the global bond selloff intensified, pushing the 10-year Treasury yield to a 19-year high of 5.22% on strong PMIs, hawkish Fed unity and weak auction demand. WTI fell 6% to about $94 on Saudi pipeline resumption, though refined products…
MUFG expects the BoE to deliver 25bp hikes in November and February, taking Bank Rate to 4.25%, after hawkish MPC comments and PMI price pressures. UK fiscal headroom has likely shrunk by about £15bn, leaving under £10bn before energy support decisions. In…
The ECB could raise rates in December unless the Gulf crisis resolves quickly, as energy costs push euro area inflation higher while consumption and confidence stay fragile. The UK and Japan are slowing but rate rises are still likely by year-end. In the US,…
Intesa Sanpaolo forecasts Italy's gross government issuance at EUR545bn in 2026, down from an estimated EUR547bn in 2025, with net issuance of EUR100bn. The plan features EUR256bn of BTPs and EUR183bn of BOTs, alongside BTP inflation-linked (EUR34bn), CCTeu…
SMBC argues the recent rate selloff reflects a repricing of the policy path rather than market stress, as futures basis and on-the-run/off-the-run spreads stayed orderly. With roughly 95bp of additional tightening priced over 12 months, SMBC believes the…
Natixis expects euro area headline inflation at 3.55% yoy in September, up from 3.25% in August, with core at 2.55% from 2.40%. Rising energy prices are the primary driver: Brent near $102/bbl, up 51% yoy, is set to exert stronger upward pressure on headline.…
This is Intesa Sanpaolo's macroeconomic calendar for 28 September–2 October 2026, listing scheduled data releases and central bank events for the US, eurozone, Germany, France, Italy, Spain, UK, Japan, China and Switzerland. Consensus points to a US September…
Intesa Sanpaolo's fixed income note projects 2026 euro area gross government issuance of EUR 1,484bn, down from EUR 1,330bn... correction: the comparison shows 2026 gross issuance of EUR 1,484bn versus EUR 1,330bn in the prior year, with redemptions of EUR…
Intesa Sanpaolo forecasts Spanish government gross issuance of EUR285bn in 2026, down from an estimated EUR276bn in 2025, with net issuance of EUR54bn versus EUR61bn. Redemptions total EUR230bn. Letras gross issuance rises to EUR116bn while Bonos &…
Natixis expects one more Fed hike in December and an elevated U.S. Treasury curve, keeping the Mexican peso under pressure. Banxico held its policy rate at 6.50% unanimously in September, stating it will not react mechanically to U.S. monetary policy but will…
UBS CIO flags fresh data center financing concerns after reports of a potential one-year delay to Oracle's Project Jupiter campus and a contractual move to defer payments on the 1,400-acre New Mexico site, which backs computing commitments to OpenAI and…
The CNB's September minutes read more hawkish than the press conference, with the board judging inflation risks tilted to the upside. Core inflation, services prices, food and an oil-driven energy shock are cited, alongside above-target wage growth. ING…