Macroeconomic Outlook
中文标题
宏观经济展望
Core conclusion · Tlines extraction
Energy-market rebalancing is slipping further away. The partial Hormuz blockade, Red Sea disruption and attacks on Saudi infrastructure keep oil and gas prices elevated, lifting inflation and delaying rate cuts. Under the baseline, assuming oil below $80 from mid-2027, global growth slows to 2.8% in 2026 and rebounds to 3.3% in 2027. Failure to restore supply would bring a stagflationary outcome.
- Institution
- Intesa Sanpaolo
- Published
- 09/25/2026
- Research topic
- Inflation · Crude Oil (WTI)
- Time horizon
- September 2026 · 2027 · long-term · 2020 · 2022
Key arguments
- The June US-Iran MoU collapsed; the Hormuz blockade is partial, not total, and Gulf exports remain below pre-war levels.
- Inflation is rising almost everywhere, driven by energy; euro-area headline inflation is set to approach 4% by autumn 2026.
- The Fed and ECB have resumed hiking, and markets price more tightening than the baseline assumes.
- Long-term rates are higher as central banks run down balance sheets, leaving investors to absorb rising US debt issuance.
Key numbers
- Brent front-month (mid-Sep 2026)
- close to USD 110/bbl, +80% YTD
- Baseline Brent forecast
- USD 72.5/bbl average 2027; USD 65 by 4Q27
- Baseline TTF gas
- EUR 47/MWh average 2027
- Global GDP growth
- 2.8% in 2026, 3.3% in 2027
- Adverse scenario impact
- inflation +2.2pp, GDP -0.9pp (2027)
Main risks
- Failure to restore oil supply would produce a more stagflationary scenario, with global growth 0.9pp lower and inflation 2.2pp higher in 2027.
- US fiscal unsustainability: the US accounts for 72% of the rise in advanced-economy net bond issuance despite ~55% of GDP.
- Euro-area gas shock: low stocks and the January 2027 extension of the Russian import ban to long-term contracts could push TTF above baseline.
Corresponding source evidence
Macroeconomic Outlook Research Department September 2026 Macroeconomic Outlook Macro Based on information available up to 22 September 2026 Please read carefully the important disclosures at the end of this publication.
· September 2026Assuming the situation improves in 2027, the fall in inflation should lead to less aggressive rate rises than those currently priced in by the markets, and growth would pick up again.
· 2027Consequently, current projections for oil and gas prices factor in a much slower return to normality and, indeed, higher prices compared with pre-war levels, even in the long term for natural gas (see Figs.
· long-term
Context: the conclusion is Tlines' automated extraction, not the institution's wording. Quoted evidence is publisher wording. Scope and date must travel with the conclusion.
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AI analysis
Cross-institution comparison · CPI
How this page was produced
Tlines extracted the conclusion, arguments, numbers and risks above from the report published by Intesa Sanpaolo on 09/25/2026, then structured them for comparison. The publisher's own wording is reachable through the source link on this page and is displayed in full above. Last updated 10/17/2026. Methodology · Source policy · AI usage · Request a correction