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US equities fell about 0.6% as Brent and WTI surged more than 6% to around USD108 and USD103 per barrel, their highest since May, after Iran attacked vessels near the Strait of Hormuz. US August PPI accelerated to 5.4% y/y from 4.8%. Jobless claims fell to…
US producer inflation accelerated to 5.4% YoY in August and energy prices jumped, with Brent up over 6% near USD108 on Strait of Hormuz tensions. Markets price a roughly 70% probability of a 25bp Fed hike at the 15-16 September meeting. The ECB raised its…
Oil prices surged again, with ICE Brent settling more than 6% higher and nearing $110/bbl in early trading, as the market reprices the duration and severity of the Middle East conflict. Flows through the Strait of Hormuz remain well below pre-war levels, and…
Investors are pricing in a higher likelihood that the Federal Reserve will hike rates after core CPI inflation rose in August more than economists had estimated. However, a rate hike may not keep the US stock market from climbing higher, says Jonathan…
Westpac reinstated its call for a 25bp RBA hike in November after the National Accounts showed domestic demand more resilient than expected, with stronger household incomes and a large pipeline of data centre and renewable energy investment slowing…
MUFG's FX Daily Snapshot argues the September 11 US CPI report is pivotal for Fed hike expectations and the dollar. Stronger PPI has lifted implied hikes to 18bp ahead of the FOMC, up from 13bp. An in-line or stronger 0.2% m/m CPI reading would sustain hike…
MUFG expects the September FOMC and BOJ meetings to reinforce a more differentiated Asia FX environment amid Brent above $100/bbl. With the Fed on hold and elevated US yields, a 25bps BOJ hike would tighten global liquidity and risk unwinding yen-funded carry…
MUFG flags that Asia FX and rates resilience to higher US Treasury yields may not persist near-term, since rising yields now reflect tighter policy expectations and higher risk premia, with Brent at $109/bbl and US 10-year yields a whisker from 5%. The desk…
The JPY has been the best-performing G10 currency over the past week, extending its rebound after USD/JPY failed to break back above 160.00 at the start of September and broke below support at 155.00. A 25bps BOJ hike is almost fully priced for the upcoming…
Iranian officials warned they are prepared to escalate the conflict if US attacks continue, driving oil prices sharply higher and global bond yields up on inflation concerns. Brent rose 7.7% to US$109/bbl and WTI gained 8.1% to US$104/bbl, while the S&P 500…
Westpac's NZ Weekly Economic Insight argues that June quarter GDP, due next week, likely expanded close to trend, even though the quarter coincided with peak geopolitical uncertainty from the Iran war. The note gives no headline growth figure and includes no…
Scotiabank's September 2026 FX Outlook adopts a broadly bearish USD stance, arguing the DXY is in the early stages of a bearish reversal as rate differentials erode and G10 central banks turn hawkish. The Fed is forecast to hold at 3.75% through 2027, while…
Scotiabank Economics analyzes the ECB's September 2026 decision to raise the deposit facility rate by 25bp to 2.50%, the second hike of the cycle. The ECB's revised baseline forecasts show headline inflation at 3.0/2.5/2.1% for 2026/27/28 and core at…
Natixis analyzes Mexico's proposed 2027 budget, which reduces the public sector financing requirement to 3.9% of GDP from 4.1% in 2026, with gross debt rising modestly to 55% of GDP. Revenues are set to increase to 23.0% of GDP on stricter tax deduction…
Wellington Management argues that climate investing extends beyond traditional cleantech into three pathways: deep-tech innovation, asset and infrastructure buildout, and performance optimization. Structural bottlenecks—grid interconnection timelines now ~5…
Copper dropped more than 3% after hitting a record $14,875/t on the LME as a Reuters report revealed the White House has not yet decided whether to impose tariffs on refined copper. The tariff premium had pushed COMEX above LME and drawn record inflows into…
MUFG forecasts August 2026 US headline CPI at 0.32% MoM (3.3% YoY) and core CPI at 0.23% MoM (2.4% YoY), matching the Bloomberg median consensus. The team assigns roughly 50% probability to a 0.2% core print, 30% to 0.3% and 20% to 0.1%. A 0.2% core outcome…
Natixis reviews the ECB's September 10, 2026 decision to keep its three key policy rates unchanged at 2.50%, 2.65% and 2.90%, a move widely expected and likely unanimous. The accompanying staff projections revised headline inflation to 3.0% in 2026, 2.5% in…
ING argues that a breach of 5% on the US 10yr Treasury yield looks close to inevitable, driven mainly by higher real yields (2.5%) plus a renewed rise in inflation expectations (2.4%), with fiscal and issuance concerns dominating and higher oil prices adding…
The National Bank of Poland Governor Adam Glapinski turned less dovish at his September 2026 press conference than in July, signalling an extended period of stable rates rather than a possible cut, as Middle East conflict-driven energy prices lifted August…