Rba preview a decisive hike to keep inflation in check
中文标题
RBA前瞻：果断加息以抑制通胀
Core conclusion · Tlines extraction
ING expects the Reserve Bank of Australia to hike the cash rate 25bp to 4.6% on 29 September 2026, citing sticky trimmed mean inflation at 3.6% y/y, resilient labour demand (three-month average job creation of 34k, participation at a record 67.1%) and higher fuel costs from the US-Iran conflict. The hike should offer some support to AUD/USD, which ING sees as undervalued beyond the 1.5 standard deviation band; the bank revises its year-end target to 0.72 from 0.73.
- Institution
- ING THINK
- Published
- 09/25/2026
- Research topic
- Inflation · Crude Oil (WTI) · US Dollar (DXY)
- Time horizon
- next week
Key arguments
- Persistent core inflation: trimmed mean likely held at 3.6% y/y in August for a third month, challenging the RBA's 3.3% year-end expectation.
- Labour market resilience: full-time employment strengthened in July and August, three-month average job creation reached 34k, and participation hit a record 67.1%.
- Energy-driven upside risks: higher oil prices from the US-Iran conflict raise domestic fuel costs, with the RBA estimating a 10% fuel price rise adds over 0.3ppt to headline inflation.
- AUD support: AUD/USD is undervalued beyond the 1.5 standard deviation band, and a September RBA hike alongside a December Fed hike should improve the rate differential.
Key numbers
- Expected RBA cash rate hike
- 25bp to 4.6% on 29 September
- Trimmed mean inflation
- 3.6% y/y in August, likely third consecutive month
- Three-month average job creation
- 34k, strongest since February
- Participation rate
- record-high 67.1%
- AUD/USD year-end target
- revised to 0.72 from 0.73
Main risks
- A Fed hike in October, rather than December, could keep USD in demand and delay any AUD/USD recovery.
- A near-term test of sub-0.700 levels remains possible, though an RBA hike may prevent a retest of the June lows around 0.690.
- The RBA may not deliver the hike if inflation or labour data soften; markets price only 22bp for next week.
Corresponding source evidence
We expect a 25bp hike next Tuesday to offer some support for the AUD The RBA is set to lean hawkish We expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to deliver a decisive 25bp rate hike in the cash rate to 4.6% on 29 September, reflecting an economy that continues to run hot across multiple fronts.
Labour market conditions remain tight, second-quarter GDP growth surprised to the upside, and recent inflation readings have come in stronger than expected.
While the housing market has shown signs of cooling, we expect the RBA to emphasise that inflation risks remain tilted to the upside and that further vigilance is required to ensure price pressures return sustainably to target.
Context: the conclusion is Tlines' automated extraction, not the institution's wording. Quoted evidence is publisher wording. Scope and date must travel with the conclusion.
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AI analysis
Cross-institution comparison · CPI
How this page was produced
Tlines extracted the conclusion, arguments, numbers and risks above from the report published by ING THINK on 09/25/2026, then structured them for comparison. The publisher's own wording is reachable through the source link on this page and is displayed in full above. Last updated 10/17/2026. Methodology · Source policy · AI usage · Request a correction