OCBC Daily Treasury Outlook (25 Sep 2026)

Key arguments

• The energy shock is pushing several central banks toward tighter policy: Norway hiked, Sweden signalled a hike, two BoE deputies leaned hawkish, and Fed officials kept further tightening on the table.
• US data remained firm, with initial jobless claims low at 197k and new-home sales up 6.4%, reinforcing hike expectations.
• Markets were resilient despite the rates sell-off: equities were broadly flat, Brent surged 3.4%, and gold eased 0.5%.
• Geopolitical headlines briefly lifted risk sentiment on reports of US-Iran talks over reopening the Strait of Hormuz, but significant hurdles remain.

Corresponding source evidence

1. However, Dhingra remained more cautious, noting that price increases were less broad-based than in 2022 and the labour market was weaker.Fed officials also kept the door open to further tightening, with Anna Paulson and John Williams signalling that another rate increase may be appropriate. · 2022
2. Credit Headlines: • Deutsche Bank AG (DB): Announced a USD103mn exposure to Radiant World and a likely 3Q2026 provision; overall loan quality and provisions are expected to remain stable, while 3Q2026 Investment Banking performance is expected to be flat or slightly lower y/y.
3. • ING Groep (INTNED): Raised its 2027 ROE target to above 16%, revenue guidance to above EUR26bn and reduced its cost target to approximately EUR13bn, while completing around 78% of its EUR1bn share buyback. · 2027