Market Quick Take - Brent near 106 as the thirty-year tops 54

Key arguments

• Brent pared a sharp spike as the US and Iran weigh a Qatar-mediated phased Hormuz deal, though Tehran seeks control of the strait and the White House says talks are not under pressure.
• The long end led a global bond selloff, with nearly all US benchmark maturities around or above 5%, raising borrowing costs for consumers, corporates and governments.
• Equity breadth was materially weaker than the flat S&P 500 headline; Oracle plunged on a New Mexico data centre force majeure.
• The SNB held at 0.00% and removed intervention language, sending the franc sharply weaker.

Corresponding source evidence

1. • Crude prices and a global bond selloff eased as the United States and Iran are weighing a Qatar-mediated phased deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and lift the American blockade, with Tehran seeking control of the strait and reduced US military pressure; the White House says President Trump is open to talks but not under pressure.
2. • UK GfK consumer confidence improved to -13 in September, the highest since August 2024, though the survey compiler cautioned that rising energy and fuel costs could yet weigh on sentiment. · August 2024
3. • Norges Bank raised its policy rate by 25 basis points to 4.50%, citing persistent inflation, while Sweden's Riksbank left rates unchanged, but said that a rate hike would happen this year. · this year