Cee cca week ahead inflation data from poland and kazakhstan and czech gdp details
中文标题
中东欧与中亚一周前瞻：波兰和哈萨克斯坦通胀数据及捷克GDP详情
Core conclusion · Tlines extraction
Next week brings September flash CPI for Poland and Kazakhstan and Czech second-quarter GDP details with industrial PMI. Poland's headline CPI is estimated above 4.0% year-on-year after the fuel VAT cut expired and crude rose, exceeding the National Bank of Poland's 2.5% +/-1pp tolerance band and potentially reinforcing rate-hike bets. Kazakhstan's CPI is forecast to ease to 9.5% from 9.8%, aided by base effects, the strong tenge and a moderate fiscal stance. The Czech GDP breakdown and PMI are also due.
- Institution
- ING THINK
- Published
- 09/25/2026
- Research topic
- Crude Oil (WTI) · Inflation
- Time horizon
- this year
Key arguments
- Poland's September headline CPI is estimated above 4.0% YoY, above the NBP's 2.5% +/-1pp tolerance band upper bound, after the fuel VAT cut ended and crude oil prices rose.
- The surprise may support or even boost already elevated expectations of rate hikes in Poland.
- Czech second-quarter GDP headline figures should be confirmed, but the expenditure breakdown may be revised as inventory contributions are absorbed elsewhere; household consumption strength is the key question.
- Czech industrial PMI likely softened amid the Hormuz conflict re-escalation, higher oil prices and greater global uncertainty.
Key numbers
- Poland September headline CPI estimate
- above 4.0% YoY
- NBP inflation target tolerance range
- 2.5% +/-1 percentage point
- Fuel VAT cut reversal
- from 8% back to 23% in August
- Kazakhstan August headline inflation
- 9.8% YoY
- Kazakhstan September headline inflation forecast
- 9.5% YoY
Main risks
- Poland's CPI outcome may overshoot the estimate, strengthening rate-hike expectations beyond current pricing.
- The Czech GDP breakdown could reveal weaker household consumption than headline figures suggest.
- Kazakhstan's inflation moderation may stall due to persistent external food price pressures, VAT pass-through, regulated tariff growth and global commodity price uncertainty, delaying further monetary easing.
Corresponding source evidence
The end of the temporary VAT cut on fuels (from 23% to 8%) in August, combined with higher crude oil prices in recent weeks, pushed fuel costs to fresh highs in September.
Core inflation was probably little changed, but we estimate that headline CPI rose above 4.0% YoY, thereby moving clearly above the upper bound of the National Bank of Poland's inflation target tolerance range (2.5% +/-1 percentage point).
CCA: Kazakhstan inflation expected to ease on base effects CPI data for Kazakhstan will be released on Thursday.
Context: the conclusion is Tlines' automated extraction, not the institution's wording. Quoted evidence is publisher wording. Scope and date must travel with the conclusion.
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AI analysis
Cross-institution comparison · WTI
How this page was produced
Tlines extracted the conclusion, arguments, numbers and risks above from the report published by ING THINK on 09/25/2026, then structured them for comparison. The publisher's own wording is reachable through the source link on this page and is displayed in full above. Last updated 10/17/2026. Methodology · Source policy · AI usage · Request a correction