Fx daily bond selloff helps usd consolidate gains

中文标题

外汇日报：债券抛售帮助美元巩固涨幅

ING THINK09/25/2026updated 10/17/2026

Citable research brief

Core conclusion · Tlines extraction

A global bond sell-off has pushed back-end yields higher, triggering risk-off flows that help the dollar consolidate recent gains. Oil remains bid after a failed UN summit and scepticism over US-Iran talks, keeping upside risks for rates. ING sees Brent potentially reaching $110/bbl by end-September. EUR/USD downside persists, with 1.1320-1.1330 as next support. The SNB left rates unchanged with a dovish surprise; EUR/CHF and USD/CHF may rise. CEE markets price heavy tightening; ING stays bearish on regional FX.

Institution: ING THINK
Published: 09/25/2026
Research topic: Crude Oil (WTI) · US Dollar (DXY) · US 10Y Treasury
Time horizon: near-term

Crude Oil (WTI) · WTI US Dollar (DXY) · DXY US 10Y Treasury · US10Y

Key arguments

Bond sell-off lifts back-end yields and supports USD via risk-off, with market pricing two Fed hikes by January and almost four by July 2027.
Oil scepticism persists; Brent could reach $110/bbl by end-September, adding upside rate risks.
EUR/USD may fall to 1.1320-1.1330 on oil spike or strong US data; French spread widening offsets eurozone resilience.
SNB held rates but was dovish; market pricing too hawkish, leaving CHF downside; USD/CHF could rally to 0.85.

Key numbers

Brent target: $110/bbl
EUR/USD support: 1.1320-1.1330
2-year SOFR rise: ~20bp in 48h
French 10y spread: 110bp over bunds
USD/CHF target: 0.85

Main risks

Oil price spike above $110 could accelerate USD gains and push EUR/USD below support.
French fiscal concerns may widen spreads further, weighing on EUR.
CEE tightening expectations could rise if energy prices keep climbing, pressuring regional currencies.

Corresponding source evidence

Markets remain reluctant to price in any optimism into oil prices, which keeps risks on the upside for rates.
EUR/USD may still have some room to fall before recovering The dollar is benefiting from the knock-on effects of the bond sell-off on global risk sentiment USD: Keeping an eye on the back-end The global bond sell-off continues to leave its mark on FX.
By extension, we remain cautious about calling the end of this USD rally.

Context: the conclusion is Tlines' automated extraction, not the institution's wording. Quoted evidence is publisher wording. Scope and date must travel with the conclusion.

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