Latest Canada releases, policy documents, indicators and institution research. Research includes primary and explicitly related coverage.
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RBC cardholder data show Canadian core retail sales, excluding gasoline and autos, rose 0.4% on a three-month average in September, down from 0.6% in August. Discretionary services led at 1%, easing from 1.5%, while discretionary goods were flat at -0.1%.…
Canada shed 68,000 jobs in September, following a 42,000 decline in August, with 48,000 of the losses among those aged 15-24 and notable drops in education and health care. The unemployment rate rose to 6.5% but remains below year-ago levels. RBC expects the…
Canada lost 68.3k jobs in September, far worse than the 10k consensus gain. Scotiabank dismisses the report as a statistical anomaly, citing a small sample, supply-side factors (sick workers, school transition), and implausible public sector losses. The…
Confidence in Canada's housing market came under renewed pressure in September, as escalation of the trade war with the United States and rising long-term interest rates put buyers on the defensive. Most local real estate boards reported a drop in home…
Canadian exports rose 2.5% in August, a sixth straight monthly surplus, aided by tariff front-running. Imports fell 2.0%, led by autos and gold. The US deficit widened to US$105bn on a 4.3% import surge. Canada's estimated effective tariff rate rose to 4.6%,…
RBC estimates public entities fund 26% of Canadian capex, or 40% of non-residential tangible assets, with provinces supplying at least 75% of senior-government capital funding. Post-pandemic provincial capex has consumed fiscal space and lifted net debt,…
US September inflation drifted higher, yet Natixis argues a Fed pause is more likely than not, giving room to complete scaling into 2yr longs. Treasuries rallied despite bad inflation data and a silent Warsh, suggesting the market is forming a floor. The bank…
US September CPI accelerated to 3.7% y/y, with core at 2.6% y/y and 0.3% m/m, as price pressures broadened across goods, shelter and services. PPI jumped 1.3% m/m (6.3% y/y). Retail sales rose 0.8%, but ex-auto/gas gained just 0.2%. TD expects the Fed to skip…
US inflation surprised higher, driven by tariffs and broad price pressures, but ING expects tariff refunds, cooling rents and 3% wage growth to bring inflation near 2% by Q2 next year. The AI investment boom, about a third of GDP growth this year, keeps…