观点

A sound and credible 2027 draft budget and a well-received medium-term fiscal consolidation plan could create a favourable idiosyncratic shock, reducing risk premiums on Hungarian assets.

Against a backdrop of elevated global uncertainty, and despite the prospect of lower local risk premiums, we expect the National Bank of Hungary to play it safe and keep rates on hold on 20 October.

Our assumption is that domestic developments will open the door to a 25bp rate cut in December, leaving the base rate at 5.25% at end-2026.

We forecast a terminal rate of 4.25% next year.

Regarding bonds, historical precedent indicates that the spread should settle in the 50-120bp range by the time of entry into ERM II.

We expect price growth to remain below the central bank’s target for the rest of the year and throughout the first half of 2027.

We believe this partly reflects elevated expectations surrounding the fiscal plans, with markets anticipating a frontloaded consolidation and a deficit target below 5% of GDP in 2027.

Looking ahead to 2027, growth could soften if the AI tailwind fades and weak domestic consumption becomes a more visible drag on activity.

Assuming the starting point at the end of 2019 was at the standard 60% equities and 40% bonds and no rebalancing was done during the short-lived bear market, the investor would have lost some recovery potential once the market bottomed.

At the time of this writing, announced capital spending by large U.S. technology companies points to more than $1 trillion of investment in 2026, according to company filings, with roughly $1.5 trillion in additional outlays forecast thereafter.

We estimate AI-related investment has contributed roughly 1.2 percentage points to the 2.7% average annualized growth in U.S. domestic demand over the same period (see Figure 2).

Households spent an estimated $2.6 billion more on motor fuel in Q2 2026 than a year ago (about $150 per household) to buy 3% less fuel.

1 2 3 4 5 Results per page 10 25 50 Statements concerning financial market trends or portfolio strategies are based on current market conditions, which will fluctuate.

The BoJ has indicated that the estimated range of the neutral policy rate is between 1.1%and 2.5%.

Junko Koeda stated that she believes the level of the neutral interest rate is considerably above 1%” which indicates that she still sees room for further rate hikes with the current policy rate at 1.25%.

MAS expects AI-related orders and capacity expansion to support near-term growth, although the positive output gap should narrow through 2027.

NOAA assigns agreater than 83% chance that the event will remain strong to very strong through January-March 2027.

NOAA also estimates up to an 83% chance that the event becomes historic during October – December, meaning itwould exceed the strength of all previous El Niño events inrecords dating back to 1950 3 .

7 https://www.piie.com/blogs/realtime-economics/2026/el-nino-could-drag-down-global-economy-almost-1-trillion-or-least-7 LATAM MACRO INSIGHTS 4 Latin America’s exposure toElNiño Source: The Economist, National meteorological agencies, EIU, Natixis ► Dependence on climate-sensitive industries: El Niño disrupts production conditions, reduces river flows, warms ocean waters, and damages crops, meaning economies where agriculture, fishing, mining, and hydropower represent alarge share of output bear the steepest losses.

In Latin America, the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) identifies Ecuador among the most exposed, estimating that an extreme El Niño event could reduce economic growth by up to 4.4%, citing the country’s vulnerability to flooding, fisheries disruption, and hydroelectric stress.

LATAM MACRO INSIGHTS 6 Preparedness can reduce losses and fiscal responses.

In the 2023-2024 climate event, the Peruvian government allocated abudget ofmore than $2bn (or 2.5% of GDP) for prevention and emergency action, which helped reduce damage 8 .

8 See the MEF press release HERE LATAM MACRO INSIGHTS 7 Americas: ElNiño impact summary, estimated through historical data The table reports the cumulative impact on real GDP growth over four quarters.

For example, afigure of1.08 for Argentina means that real GDP will be 1.08% higher compared with a no-shock scenario.

Policy formanaging conflicts of interest: https://natixis.groupebpce.com/wp- content/uploads/2022/11/summary_policy_management_of_conflicts_of_interest s_eng_220826.pdf Information about potential conflicts ofinterest within Natixis/Groupe BCPE: https://home.cib.natixis.com/regulation Thisdocument isacommunication fordiscussion andinformation purposes only and isexclusively intended forand may only betransmitted toeligible counterparties, professional clients andqualified investors, assuch terms (ortheir equivalents) areunderstood andapplied under allrelevant laws andregulations applicable toyouandus,forpurposes ofthiscommunication.

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An extension of the trade truce through January 2027, combined with $30bn in tariff cuts on products such as toys, Christmas decorations, and kitchenware, should keep the recovery trajectory intact for the rest of the year.

Rising trade barriers have sharply reduced the US share of China's total exports from 19.2% in 2018 to 10.3% through the first three quarters of 2026.

Auto imports also fell -38.1% YoY in September, a deeper contraction than the -32.4% level recorded in August, as Chinese auto sales continue to fall after years of consumption front-loading driven by trade-in policies.

Tech products are far and away outperforming overall imports Trade surplus likely to break records again this year China's trade surplus reached $133.5bn in September, comfortably above expectations, as the export beat was larger than the import beat (market: 117.8bn, ING: 118.3bn).

The IMF also projects global growth of 3.4% in 2027, although this assumes that the Strait of Hormuz reopens by March and shipping conditions normalise by October 2027.

Second, a sharp correction in AI investment could trigger a broader asset price selloff, reducing global GDP by 1.1% by 2028, including a 1.8% decline in US output relative to the baseline.

SG: Based on advanced estimates, GDP growth slowed less-than-expected to 5.4% YoY in 3Q26 (Consensus: 5.1% and OCBC: 5.7%), down from an upwardly revised 6.2% in 2Q26.

Meanwhile, services growth was unchanged at 5.2% YoY in 3Q26.

There is upside risk that full-year GDP growth will come in above 5.5% (OCBC 2026F: 5.2%), the upper end of the official 4.5%-5.5% growth forecast, given year- to-date growth of 6.0% YoY and continued support from AI-related demand across the electronics cluster.