观点

We expect the unemployment rate to increase slightly to 4.2% on the back of higher participation from prime-age workers.

Global sustainable bond issuance grew Q1 2026, with USD 503bn in issuance despite significant geopolitical headwinds.

Within the chemicals, airlines, and transportation & logistics sectors, sustainable bond issuance remains below 1% of the broader market.

Allocations of the bonds are concentrated in green methanol and chemical recycling.

With AccelerateEU, the Commission is taking actions to manage short-terms supply risk, whilst renewing its push for electrification and alternative fuels.

Joint policy initiatives such as the US-India COMPACT and TRUST are creating a stable and conducive environment for investment across technology, manufacturing and other strategic sectors.

ETS and SAF mandates are reshaping the economics of European aviation. Higher carbon and fuel costs will pressure margins.

Mitigation will rely on pass-through to customers, fleet network optimisation, policy certainty, and improved access to competitively priced SAF and carbon removals.

The new war in the Middle East is sparking policy action to cut energy import dependency and enhance affordability.

Under the Commission’s proposal, EU ETS prices could reach EUR 180–270/t by 2040, increasing steel prices by 50–100% and cement by 80–135%.

Under the Commission’s proposal, EU ETS prices could reach EUR 180–270/t by 2040, increasing steel prices by 50–100% and cement by 80–135%.

Hong Kong is becoming less of a proxy for China’s exports and more exposed to China’s demand for foreign technology .

Due to the US tariffs, the relevance of Chinese exports to the US, which was the second largest trade route, has declined massively.

The realistic outcome, then, is not a sealed border but an asymmetric split: a genuine fracture at the level of hardware and infrastructure beneath a software layer that stays porous.

Open-weight models — DeepSeek, Qwen, Kimi — are already downloaded and run worldwide, and once weights are released they cannot be recalled.

Advanced chips, the lithography that makes them and the high-bandwidth memory have developed into essential chokepoints in the U.S. quest for AI dominance.

It fragments the market — two chip ecosystems, two sets of standards, duplicated infrastructure — without delivering the security either side is chasing, because the capabilities each is trying to contain slip across the divide regardless.

A ban on Chinese models would hollow out its own economy — and, given how porous the software layer is, would not even work.

The Singapore lesson is that autonomy and bloc membership coexist only until someone forces the question.

For the moment, Europe is relinquishing its leverage to the U.S. virtually for free.

The other risk is that China manages to crack the code of advanced lithography and the current chokepoint disappears. That would only deepen the bifurcation of AI hardware.

Beijing by building WAICO as a permanent body speaking for the Global South, with Xi Jinping's call for an order in which “no country should dominate” serving as its own bid to lead.

Major indexes dipped Tuesday on war news that sent crude to five-week highs.

But there also remains a closer link to geopolitics and price dynamics, with the latest headlines pushing oil prices above US$90/bbl again and gas prices close to the March price peaks of the Iran war.

Gold 4455 -3.1%

Silver 66.38 -4.1%

The recent rally across key agricultural commodities, supported by war and weather-related supply concerns, has triggered a record two-week accumulation of speculative length. In the two weeks to 25 August, the managed-money net long across ten major grain and soft commodity futures jumped by a record 523,000 contracts to more than 1 million contracts, the highest in four years and representing a nominal value of more than USD 40 billion. The speed of the turnaround has been particularly striking, potentially leaving the recently established longs exposed to a sudden change in the bullish narrative.

gold retreated as markets priced in further central bank rate hikes.

We continue to see value in broad commodity exposure as both a potential source of returns and a portfolio diversifier during periods of geopolitical stress and inflation uncertainty.

Brent was up over 2% at around USD89.4 per barrel.

Our base case is that disruptions to global energy supply should remain limited as the US, Iran, and mediators continue to work toward reopening the Strait of Hormuz.

We also think exposure to gold and broad commodities can provide additional diversification.

For the month, the BCOM is up 6.4%, supported by double-digit gains across precious metals, softs and grains

Higher for longer is hawkish for many central banks.

positioning has been built around a hawkish tone intended to anchor long yields.

The Bank of Korea delivered a back-to-back 25 basis point rise to 3.00% in a six-to-one decision, citing an unprecedented semiconductor boom driving stronger-than-expected growth.

If the Federal Reserve is truly serious about potentially renewing rate hikes, then the BoC could be dragged higher given a multi-decade high on the current policy rate spread (chart 4).

He may very well be best advised to do some of both by providing some guidance—howsoever veiled—on nearer term interpretations while sharing initial perspectives on the tentative work fo the task forces.

The median expectation is for the policy rate to reach 3.25% in six months' time.

Consensus unanimously expects a 25bps rate hike on Wednesday.

Consensus is almost unanimous in expecting Negara to hold its overnight rate at 2.75% on Thursday.

Such a step, if taken, will aim to reduce the Riksbank’s financial risk. According to the Executive Board, it should not be regarded as an action motivated by monetary policy.

However, we do not believe that the amount proposed, about SEK 100 billion, is large enough to generate lasting krona appreciation.

The Ministry of Finance has proposed a 2027 state budget deficit of CZK389bn, implying a general government deficit of 3.5% of GDP, an increase from this year's 2.6% and the highest since 2023.

It can meet this target for European Commission reporting by invoking the escape clause for defence spending, which lowers the reported deficit to 2.8% of GDP.

Public debt has risen to 118% of GDP, while the deficit remains well above pre-Covid levels at 5.1% of GDP, and will hardly stabilise this year.

The longer rates stay elevated, the greater the fiscal strain and the stronger the potential focus on debt sustainability, currency debasement and eventual policy intervention.

the Treasury Secretary Bessent’s announcement of at least doubling the size of Treasury buybacks will not move the needle without a reduced fiscal deficit.

As a result, additional fiscal consolidation measures will be needed in 2026 if the government is to keep the public deficit below 5%

This kind of Treasury intervention is irrelevant unless the fiscal deficit is reduced.