利率火花：别指望跌破5

关键论点

• 预计美国10年期国债收益率将保持在5.00%以上，并回升至5.25%。
• 长端可能至少还有一轮走弱，收益率或升至5.25%–5.5%，波动不安情绪可能延续至2027年第一季度。
• 零售销售稳健、初请失业金人数偏低、PPI通胀偏高以及高赤字，构成收益率上行的背景。
• 欧元区不安由法国主导：10年期互换利差从60个基点翻倍至120个基点，法国对德国利差接近欧元问世以来最阔，但走势可能已过度，且意大利利差表现出低贝塔特征。

对应原文证据

1. Probably overdone, but far from over We think the 10-year yield on US Treasuries will remain above 5.00% and head back up to 5.25% The mood for US Treasuries has calmed.
2. It just has not translated into a meaningful move lower in yields, mostly as it had been offset by net shorts on Treasury futures.
3. Treasuries did not react much to Thursday's data, but market participants will be aware that we had another good (low) jobless claims number, retail sales were firm and PPI inflation uncomfortably high.