观点

Global dairy prices have softened as supply improves, though skim milk powder has outperformed as demand shifts from fats towards proteins.

El Niño remains an upside risk to prices and a downside risk to production.

Australian production is expected to fall by around 5% in 2026-27 but remain around 37% above the ten-year average.

Sugar prices have recovered from the lows seen earlier in 2026 as the global market moves from surplus to deficit.

Against this backdrop, we continue to expect the goods trade balance to trend lower over the coming quarters, dragging the overall current account balance down with it.

Exports of the three major commodities – iron ore, coal, and LNG – rose only 0.4%mth, as an increase of close to 10% in LNG exports offset declines in iron ore and coal.

As long as the economy continues to embrace AI, and Australia remains an attractive location for the data centres needed to support it, ADP imports are likely to remain strong.

The recent appreciation of the AUD is an additional headwind for exports, and we do not expect this effect to reverse.

Crude prices steadied after a three-day rally, with Brent holding near USD 95 as President Donald Trump said renewed attacks on Iran would be short-lived, while US officials said 17 million barrels of oil exited the Strait on Monday, signalling robust flows through the waterway.

What you're seeing is a change, a structural change that's occurred over a number of years, but a 30-year period where yields and interest rates were falling is now being reversed

In the US, 10-year Treasury yields this week reached a near three-year high of around 4.8%, while Japan's equivalent yield moved above 3% for the first time in 30 years.

Australia's 10-year government bond yield rose above 5.19%, its highest in more than 15 years.

They can lift fixed mortgage rates, raise financing costs for businesses and increase governments' interest bills. They can also put pressure on share and property valuations

Donaldson said the market was uncomfortable with a US budget deficit equivalent to around 6% to 7% of GDP, particularly when there was little evidence it would be reduced substantially in the near term. But he does not believe the US is heading towards an imminent debt crisis.

He said markets currently imply that Australia's cash rate will average around 3.8% over the long term. A couple of years ago, that figure was well below 3%.

Current account continues to deteriorate, driven by falling goods trade surplus. We expect that this trend will continue going forward.

If Europe's domestic investment story becomes credible, foreign capital would flow in and the euro could strengthen.

Defence and aerospace benefit from a rearmament cycle that will run for a decade and from procurement volumes that finally offer European scale; Airbus is the proof that Europe can build a global champion when it pools resources.

Without deeper and more liquid capital markets, a genuine European safe asset and a larger pool of investable euro instruments, the euro will not get the reserve-currency tailwind that carried the American rebalancing.

Together with the stronger euro, this reinforces purchasing power. Trade surpluses narrow almost automatically – a symptom of success, not failure.

One thing is for sure: doing nothing would push the European economy further into its very own ‘Nokia’ moment.

Unlike 2021, shortages are now reinforcing the industry's own momentum.

Our VAR results indicate that a shortage shock can sustain the semiconductor upcycle for an extended period. With the current upturn beginning in H2 2025, the model points to continued price strength through 2027 and beyond.

As past technology booms have shown, high prices eventually spur new capacity, often leading to oversupply and correction.

Buyers often overorder during shortages and cut orders when supply improves, amplifying swings in demand and prices.

Updated monthly, it will gauge whether chip shortages are intensifying or easing, identify the underlying supply and demand drivers, and signal potential turning points.

the BOK’s semiconductor export price index provides the most consistent and comprehensive measure across products, making it the preferred price variable for our VAR.

We believe the ECB will continue to avoid providing genuine forward guidance , maintaining a meeting - by - meeting, data - driven approach, with communication cent e red on the reaction function

AI and high-end industrials are booming, while traditional industries face excess capacity and muted domestic demand.

We view this pullback as a unique entry point. We recommend exposure to China’s AI ecosystem, as well as power and electrification – two themes that enjoy incremental policy support.

The managed currency by the central bank, with modest nominal TRY depreciation – by 1.6% in August on average and 16.9% YoY, significantly below inflation in the same period – limited the increase.

Global commodity prices and particularly oil prices in the current geopolitical backdrop will remain the key risk factors to the PPI and CPI in the near term.

Goods inflation dropped to 26.2% YoY, while core goods inflation fell to 15.9%, remaining subdued given the CBT’s tight grip on the exchange rate supporting disinflation in this group.

this does not materially alter our core view that the direct impact on branded pharma margins will remain limited.

First, price cuts for current drugs only apply to Medicaid, which makes up just 10% of the US market. Second, MFN only applies to new launches and manufacturers can partly manage the reference price by delaying or limiting launches in lower-priced markets.

Given that the US is responsible for roughly 50% of revenues and often around two-thirds of branded pharma profits, companies have an incentive to delay launches in other markets.

Tariffs and pricing pressures are a powerful incentive to localise production because the US market is so profitable.

both Republicans and Democrats increasingly view pharmaceuticals and biotechnology as strategic industries critical to national security, meaning that policies that strengthen US control of biopharma supply chains will likely be structural rather than just a Trump-era phenomenon.

Europe saw its share of global clinical trials decrease from roughly 35% in 2009 to roughly 20% in 2024

health policy is still a national policy domain. This means that Europe has a common medicine authority, but still has 27 different HTA frameworks, 27 different pricing regimes, and it lacks a common capital market

These biotechs then tend to launch in the US because they have to deal with only one regulator and can enter a market of 300 million people and command a higher price

Yet the shares slipped after results. Near-term guidance landed around market expectations, which were already enormous.

AI server orders hit record levels and the company raised its outlook again, confirming that customers are moving from plans to deployments.

Product revenue accelerated, guidance rose and management said AI products drove roughly half of the recent growth acceleration.

Results were strong, but the shares fell as investors questioned how much growth came from acquisitions versus the underlying business.

The main risk is that infrastructure spending eventually runs ahead of real AI usage.

Customer concentration also matters, especially when a few hyperscalers drive demand.

Track whether AI orders keep turning into delivered systems, not only announced projects.

For investors, the better question is shifting from “who has AI exposure?” to “what bottleneck does this company control, and how efficiently does it turn demand into cash?”

A correction caused by macroeconomic factors, profit-taking or improved risk sentiment may therefore be viewed as a buying opportunity if the physical market remains tight and the curve stays backwardated.