美元前景改善

关键论点

• 持续的美国利率支撑与法国债务担忧令实际利差向欧元不利方向倾斜，处于2022年以来最阔水平。
• 美联储面对稳健的劳动力市场、高于目标的通胀及轻度限制性政策；鹰派定价在明年春季前不太可能消退，届时基数效应将使通胀更接近2%目标。
• 市场定价的近75个基点欧洲央行加息显得脆弱，因10月初法国债务损失压低了欧元短期互换利率。
• 美元的主要风险是外国投资者外汇对冲比率再度上升；该比率已处于极低水平，可能因白宫在金融、贸易或外交政策上的干预而被触发，时间或在11月中期选举之后。

对应原文证据

1. There are no signs of international investors leaving US markets, and by our calculations, foreigners have kept their share of US bond and equity markets steady at around 20%.
2. Today, the Federal Reserve is faced with a solid labour market, above-target inflation and the prospect of taking policy into mildly restrictive territory.
3. While we are not looking for the central bank to deliver on all three hikes priced in over the next 12 months, we doubt that the current hawkish Fed pricing will leave the market until next spring.