亚洲外汇观察 · MAS意外维持政策不变

关键论点

• 金管局维持政策区间斜率与宽度不变，出乎市场共识预期——此前市场已押注本次会再度非常小幅收紧。
• 金管局预计核心通胀自明年年中起明显回落，国内成本受抑、供给驱动的输入型通胀放缓；并认为随着AI周期降温，正产出缺口将在明年收窄。
• 美国CPI符合预期可能使美联储维持观望，与近期关于跳过10月加息的表态一致；若读数强于预期，或推高美债收益率并延续美元强势。
• 中国贸易保持韧性叠加央行持续中间价支撑，将利好人民币及区域情绪，但进口明显放缓或重新引发内需担忧。

对应原文证据

1. In particular, the consensus expects US headline CPI inflation to rise to 3.6%yoy in September from 3.4%yoy, and this will be the key test of whether the recent repricing towards a Fed hold in October can be sustained.
2. An in-line print would likely leave the Fed in wait-and-see mode and is also consistent with recent commentary from Fed speakers around skipping the October meeting in raising rates.
3. Suffice to say a stronger than expected reading here could lift US yields and extend USD strength.