中国出口引擎在9月继续轰鸣

关键论点

• 9月出口大幅超预期，同比增长36.3%（8月为25.0%），为2021年以来最高；本轮增长由真实动能驱动，而非基数效应。
• 进口增长加快至同比31.0%，集中于科技产品（高科技产品进口增63.9%），显示科技竞赛相关支出是主要驱动力。
• 9月贸易顺差达1335亿美元，创20个月新高；前三季度顺差9381亿美元，较2025年同期高7.8%，今年有望超越去年创纪录的1.2万亿美元。
• 中美、中欧延长贸易休战，包括300亿美元关税削减，应使年底前商业环境保持稳定。

对应原文证据

1. Key trade ties look set to remain stable through year-end, which should keep this year s key growth engine humming Source: Shutterstock USD 938.1bn China's trade surplus through 3Q26 Higher than expected Exports stronger than execrated again in September China's exports grew 36.3% year-on-year in September, up from 25.0%, far stronger than forecasts (market: 25.7%, ING: 24.8%). · this year
2. An extension of the trade truce through January 2027, combined with $30bn in tariff cuts on products such as toys, Christmas decorations, and kitchenware, should keep the recovery trajectory intact for the rest of the year. · January 2027
3. Rising trade barriers have sharply reduced the US share of China's total exports from 19.2% in 2018 to 10.3% through the first three quarters of 2026. · 2018