月度报告：为何我们现在预计英国央行将加息两次

关键论点

• 天然气价格高企，且在11月会议前不太可能大幅下跌，促使英国央行加息。
• 由于家庭电费/燃气费预计上涨约20%以及食品通胀上升，预计2027年初整体CPI将短暂达到4%。
• 英国央行今年未降息，实际上已收紧50个基点，与欧洲央行的立场类似。
• 预计第二轮通胀效应有限，因此加息具有保险性质且可逆转，2027年底前可能降息。

对应原文证据

1. But we're still sceptical that we'll see big second-round effects on inflation.
2. Last summer, it argued that when inflation surpasses 4%, we are statistically more likely to get second-round effects.
3. And though headline inflation is currently 3.1%, a circa 20% rise in household electricity/gas bills forecast for January could get us there.