观点

There is upside risk that full-year GDP growth will come in above 5.5% (OCBC 2026F: 5.2%), the upper end of the official 4.5%-5.5% growth forecast, given year- to-date growth of 6.0% YoY and continued support from AI-related demand across the electronics cluster.

It’s the expected 3.6% YoY headline rate that looks most problematic with risks that this energy-related impact will start to push up the core CPY YoY rate from the expected 2.5% in September.

It sees global growth at 3.1% in 2026 and 3.4% in 2027, supported by resilient advanced economies and artificial intelligence investment but constrained by high energy prices.

Chipmakers extended their slide to a sixth straight session, with Applied Materials down 6.7% and the DRAM index 3.44% lower, competition from Chinese memory maker CXMT cited as the driver.

Goldman Sachs surrendered a premarket gain of roughly 3.7% to close 0.23% lower at 891.91, having reported earnings per share of 17.01 against a 13.08 estimate with fixed income missing; JPMorgan and Wells Fargo were mixed, and Citigroup posted a decade-high revenue print and still closed lower.

Johnson & Johnson dropped about 5.3%, with a talc litigation charge cutting net profit and a MedTech miss cited.

The Stoxx Europe 600 closed 0.10% lower at 635.02, erasing a gain of as much as 0.7%, a late technology selloff cited, with ASML down 4.2% and ASM International 6.3% lower, taking the technology sub-index down 1.6%.

Givaudan surged 9.4% to a 15-month high, stronger-than-expected growth cited, and BP advanced 3.7%, guidance flagging a capital expenditure cut cited.

MAS maintained the pace of appreciation of the SGD NEER policy band at our estimated 1.25%, with no adjustments to the width of the band or its centre.

Separately, Singapore's 3Q GDP growth came in stronger than expected at 5.4% year-on-year, underscoring the economy's resilience.

SGD likely to remain firm The SGD NEER is currently trading near the top of its policy band, at around 1.6% above the midpoint of the +-2% band.

Rupert Cadbury Sustainable Investing Strategist Beyond labels: Using green bonds to support investors’ climate-related objectives 2 • Sustainable outcome alignment Green bonds enable investors to allocate capital to projects with intended environmental benefit, while recognizing that reported figures generally reflect the impact of financed projects rather than outcomes attributable to any single investor.

11 Improved availability and standardization of issuer data has enhanced investors’ ability to assess allocation and reporting practices, providing the foundation for the market analysis presented in the following sections.

Within the overall market, the largest allocations to green bond project categories (as a share of the total index) are green buildings (4.19%), renewable energy (3.56%), and clean transportation (1.35%).

Figure 4 illustrates the eligibility of reported use -of-proceeds allocations according to the EU Taxonomy environmental objectives, providing a supplementary classification lens to the ICMA project categories.

For instance, the data suggests investments facilitated through the issuance of these bonds is associated with approximately 86.66 tCO 2 -e of annual greenhouse gas emissions reduced or avoided per EUR million invested.

16,17 In addition to ICMA-aligned metrics, investors may also interpret these outcomes through broader sustainability frameworks such as SDGs.

Because labeled bonds make up only a relatively small share of the investable universe (Figure 1), a portfolio constructed solely from such instruments may differ materially from a broad market benchmark in terms of risk, return, and diversification characteristics.

5 For example, the EU Commission proposed a regulation to legally enshrine the objective of climate neutrality by 2050 (see European Climate Law—Climate Action—European Commission) and many other jurisdictions have taken similar measures as well.

14 These figures are presented to provide context and should be interpreted with caution.

Johnson & Johnson dropped about 5.3% on a talc charge and a medical-device miss, dragging pharmaceuticals 2.98% and healthcare 1.35% lower.

VIX 15.27, 20-day realised volatility 9.25% and stable, the index 1.27% above its 50-day average.

Saxo’s one-year implied-volatility ranks, read at Tuesday’s close across 187 US names, describe the same thing the index did: a flat middle and two busy ends.

Option-implied expected move for each report day against the average move after the last eight reports, with implied-volatility rank and last close, as of 14 October 2026.

Of the four reporting Tuesday, only Citigroup exceeded its expected move, falling 5.6% against 3.4%.

• Of the three reporting this morning, Bank of America prices the widest premium at 2.9% against 2.2%, ASML 4.6% against a typical 5.9%, Morgan Stanley in line at 3.6%.

• Tail risk signal: SKEW at 154.74 is essentially unchanged and still elevated, so the cost of far downside protection did not move while the sectors did.

The terminal rate is projected to be 3.25% which is 25bps higher than previously forecast but as previously guided in presentations and client meetings.

DAILY POINTS October 14, 2026 Global Economics 2 Yield curves: The US yield curve is likely undervalued in absolute terms and relative to the Canadian yield curve that is too dear in our view.

Those could lift the y/y rates to 3.7% from 3.4% (3.6% consensus) and 2.5% from 2.4% (2.5% consensus) for headline and core respectively.

This creates a risk, as higher rates are likely to weigh on residential investment in 2027, but so far, companies are signaling that capital expenditure plans should continue.

In our latest macroeconomic forecast update, we expect the current account deficit to reach 1.5% of GDP this year and widen further to 1.9% of GDP in 2027, compared with 1.0% of GDP in 2025.

We'd suggested we saw slight upside risk to the core figure with the details showing the largest component by weight, shelter, coming in hotter at 0.4% month-on-month after three consecutive softer prints, averaging 0.2% MoM.

Wages are currently running at just 3%, with the risk that we see a further slowdown coming through.

4.5 0.4 1.600 0.07 0.01 2.7 0.7 2.7 2.4 0.6 3.3 Personal care services 3.7 0.4 0.668 0.02 0.00 2.3 0.7 2.0 1.8 0.8 2.3 Miscellaneous personal services 5.1 0.3 0.932 0.05 0.00 2.9 0.9 2.4 2.7 0.7 3.3 *Number may not add due to rounding Sources: Scotiabank Economics, BLS.

Our estimate of core retail sales, excluding gasoline and autos, rose 0.4% on a three-month average, down slightly from 0.6% in August.

While SOFI posted record growth and profitability in the second quarter, with revenues rising 43% from a year ago and adjusted EBITDA jumping 43% over the same period, guidance spooked some investors.

Management also slashed its full-year 2026 guidance in its second-quarter report, forecasting a 5% to 7% revenue decline.

By embracing standardization, the $2.5 trillion 1 APAC ETF industry will be well-positioned for future growth.

In addition to enabling APs to realize operational synergies, the FIX Protocol will also help the ETF industry navigate fast- moving digitalization trends and the global rollout of T+1.

2024 2025 2025 - 2026 Citi announces it will integrate FIX Application Programming Interface (API) connectivity onto its proprietary global ETF order portal, Advanced Citi ETF System (ACES), creating a simplified order management and onboarding process.

Standardization of the ETF primary market operating model will help users improve market timing, and with it enable them to avoid penalties for late settlements under T+1.