观点

High bond yields have spurred the US government into manoeuvres to contain debt-servicing costs.

markets will probably remain skeptical about the fiscal outlook, leading to a weaker USD — especially if the authorities step up their actions to cap upward pressure on US yields.

It is of course a difficult balancing act, but when the inflation trend allows it, the krona could benefit from initiatives to generate investment opportunities in such areas as digital and physical infrastructure.

We will in all probability test 5% for the US 10yr (now 4.8%).

Getting to 5.5% pulls the Euribor 30yr to an extremity of 3.6% (now 3.4%).

Note that in 2000, the 10yr real yield hit 4% (now 2.5%).

The 10yr Treasury yield hit 6%.

We don't call for it, but 6% is not an implausible absolute extreme for the US 30yr.

A notable story too is the Japanese 30yr yield, which has touched 4.2%. That's four times the policy rate (currently 1%).

The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield (TNX) is unchanged at 4.79%.

But we also believe yields on shorter-dated government bonds should decline in the coming months

While higher yields remain a headwind and REITs continue to show sensitivity to daily rate movements, improving fundamentals, secular growth themes, and healthy balance sheets have become increasingly important contributors to returns.

With more investment in AI, renewables, defence and sovereign manufacturing, competition for capital is increasing, driving up long-term neutral interest rates.

Macklem warned that inflation risk had pivoted higher because the longer the conflict in the Middle East persists, the greater the pass through risk of higher oil into other prices.

Renewed military conflict between the U.S. and Iran has helped drive oil prices higher once again this week, reigniting inflation fears and lifting government bond yields worldwide.

This track record offers no guarantees for the future, not least because it was built in an era of open global trade and relatively stable geopolitics, which are now under strain.

The situation in the Middle East remains fluid, with both Washington and Tehran signaling that they are prepared to respond to further attacks.

given the persistent uncertainty surrounding the medium-term impact of the prolonged US-Iran conflict on Poland's economy

Certainly, the CEE FX complex seems to have taken note of the potential for escalation in the conflict, with investors preferring to scale back heavily overweight positions in Hungary.

USDJPY remains close to 160 even as Japanese government bond (JGB) yields rise to multi-decade highs.

EURUSD traded near the low of the 24-hour and two-week range at 1.1580.

We also continue to view sterling positively, supported by improving confidence in UK assets, a more fiscally credible political backdrop, and the potential for investors to reduce still-substantial short positions.

In China, persistent trade surpluses and continued People's Bank of China tolerance for gradual appreciation should support the yuan, particularly if broader USD weakness resumes.

She believes any recent weakness should be understood as cyclical rather than structural because the dollar’s dominance remains unchallenged

Follow the ecosystem: installed devices and Services growing together matter more than one quarter of iPhone sales.

Developers that reduce technology risk, strengthen cash flows, and build confidence among financial partners will be best positioned to attract capital and scale.

For now, the evidence points towards rotation rather than retreat, with investors increasingly rewarded for diversification rather than concentration.

Investors therefore need to look beyond whether Broadcom “beats”. More important will be what management says about the next stage: how quickly custom processors ramp, whether new customers add meaningful revenue, and whether AI networking grows alongside compute.

The median company in the S&P 500 is generating earnings growth of around 12%, while European companies are experiencing their broadest earnings upgrade cycle in several years.

Dell climbed nearly 8% ahead of the open as earnings and guidance topped consensus expectations. The important category of server and networking storage rose 122% year over year, well above consensus of 95%.

European companies are experiencing their broadest earnings upgrade cycle in several years.

Nvidia surged 8.7%, adding $442 billion in market value after guiding for roughly 70% revenue growth in fiscal 2028

The seven energy majors shown in the table - ExxonMobil, Equinor, ConocoPhillips, Shell, TotalEnergies, Chevron and BP - have delivered an average year-over-year return of 38.5%, compared with 18% for the Magnificent Seven technology stocks.

REITs have outperformed broader equities in 2026, as improving property fundamentals, secular growth themes, and healthy balance sheets help offset pressure from elevated interest rates over the year.

Lodging and resort REITs have been the strongest performers this year, returning 40.04%, supported by resilient leisure spending and a continued recovery in business and group travel.

Looking ahead, the draft budget projects fiscal consolidation from 2028, with the deficit narrowing by 0.5ppt each year.

With a public deficit expected this year and next at above 5% of GDP, we forecast a continued increase of public debt to reach around 118% of GDP by 2028.

Under unchanged policies, the European Commission's spring forecasts projected a deficit of 5.7% of GDP in 2027, pushing public debt up to 120.2% of GDP.

US Treasury yields on Wednesday climbed back toward levels not seen since before the Global Financial Crisis, with the 10- and 30-year yields rising to 4.8% and 5.28% respectively.

This is one of those times to not over-complicate the chart: 5yr yields breaking out and targets are 4.63% and 4.736%.

Both point to higher yields—plus more volatility ahead.

Historically, equity markets have shown an ability to absorb gradually rising yields, particularly when corporate earnings are growing.

While higher rates may create winners and losers across the market, they do not necessarily signal the end of the broader rally.

US stocks fell Monday, as escalating US-Iran tensions drove oil prices sharply higher, reviving inflation fears and reinforcing bets on a Federal Reserve rate hike.

Markets generally become more vulnerable when yields rise sharply over a short period, creating a sudden adjustment in valuations.

The principal risk remains a sudden acceleration in yields, particularly if driven by policy concerns rather than economic strength. Such a scenario would present a much greater challenge for equity markets.

History shows that this specific brand of complacency can be the seedbed for major disruption once sentiment eventually turns.

the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield lifted as high as 4.81% after rising Monday above the key 4.75% level for the first time since January 2025. The next focus is 5.00%, a level that only traded briefly in late 2023 since 2007.

The two-year US Treasury yield rose 12 basis points, the US dollar index strengthened, and gold fell.

Quality financials, energy, commodities and defensive sectors can prove more resilient, while small caps, property, consumer discretionary and long-duration growth face a higher funding or valuation hurdle.