匈牙利国家银行前瞻：降息空间犹存，但谨慎情绪占上风

关键论点

• 通胀环境有利，但匈牙利国家银行的关注点是2027年预算草案和中期财政整顿计划，而非通胀。
• 预算于10月15日提交财政委员会，时间过晚，货币政策委员会无法在10月20日前评估市场反应。
• 一份可信的2027年预算可能降低风险溢价，但全球不确定性高企，预计央行将谨慎行事。
• 我们仍预计年底前放松政策：12月降息25个基点，2027年进一步降至4.25%的终端利率。

对应原文证据

1. However, we still expect a rate cut by year-end We expect the National Bank of Hungary to play it safe and keep rates on hold on 20 October Our call The National Bank of Hungary (NBH) picked the cautious option last month, keeping the base rate unchanged.
2. A sound and credible 2027 draft budget and a well-received medium-term fiscal consolidation plan could create a favourable idiosyncratic shock, reducing risk premiums on Hungarian assets. · 2027
3. Against a backdrop of elevated global uncertainty, and despite the prospect of lower local risk premiums, we expect the National Bank of Hungary to play it safe and keep rates on hold on 20 October.