观点

• Higher oil prices, AI investment and stronger domestic inflation added to concerns.

Oil rallied on Monday after attacks by Iran-backed Houthi militants on Saudi Arabia’s main airport increased pressure on Washington to intensify its involvement in Yemen, raising concerns about further regional escalation and potential disruptions to oil flows.

Higher oil prices have lifted the inflation profile, while the recent surge in diesel prices is expected to feed more gradually into a broader range of consumer prices.

There's obviously a lot of uncertainty here, but what I will say is that our commodity strategists' base case — which they put around a 60% probability on — still sees energy flows normalizing by year end and ultimately that should take Brent down to around $70 a barrel in 2027.

The August print also reflected the narrowest goods deficit in 2026 year-to-date as energy prices were lower over the summer months compared with earlier in Q1/Q2 as oil and gas exports from the Middle East region moved higher.

We expect that the central bank will look through the highly seasonal improvement in the balance of payments and will still treat the disinflation path with caution: since the start of October energy prices have remained elevated with Brent futures holding above USD 100/b every day and gasoil prices holding onto gains reached last month.

SK Hynix dropped 1.3% and Samsung Electronics was flat, following a difficult week marked by fears of stronger Chinese competition in memory chips.

Supply/demand concerns had eased following the uneventful 10- and 30-year JGB auctions the week before, and a global sell-off in AI- and semiconductor-related equities prompted “risk-off” buying of government bonds for the first time in a while.

We also like high-quality semiconductor and hardware beneficiaries of AI spending, and think investors should consider exposure to defensive areas of tech such as payment networks, select consumer electronics names, and select software companies.

1 Asia FX Weekly BSP, BI and BOK policy decisions amidst tech-led risk-off The focus in Asia will be on central bank policy decisions by Indonesia, Philippines and South Korea, China’s macro data, coupled with whether the tech and semiconductor-led risk-off sentiment continues into next week.

These events will also unfold against a fragile market backdrop following the technology and semiconductor-led equity sell-off.

In Europe, German ZEW expectations, UK labour-market and inflation data, euro- area consumer confidence and Friday’s flash PMIs will offer a timely assessment of growth and price pressures, although near-term global sentiment is likely to remain especially sensitive to whether the semiconductor sell-off continues and generates further spillovers into Asian equities, regional currencies and wider credit markets.

Higher spending commitments may support semiconductor and equipment suppliers, but could create renewed concerns about investment returns.

Rank rose 7.1 points for the broad market fund, 7.1 for the semiconductor fund and 7.4 for its peer, all in line.

• TSMC reports before the US open, the first large semiconductor result since the selloff began, with Charles Schwab, Interactive Brokers and Prologis alongside it.

• Single-name flow did not lean one way: upside was paid for in semiconductors and crypto-related names while financials, metals and biotech were net sellers of premium.

8 A4: Under a set of simplifying assumptions, we estimate the direct effect of higher semiconductor prices on core CPI inflation at around +0.1ppt in CY2026.

In our view the dominant theme was a memory selloff: the Philadelphia semiconductor index fell 2.7%, with progress reported by Chinese rival CXMT on a denser competing memory design cited as the driver, and Micron down about 4%, SanDisk 6% lower and US-listed SK Hynix off roughly 4%.

The DRAM index fell 4.32% and the broad semiconductor ETF 2.05%, with AMD 2.28% lower and Broadcom 1.88%.

This would reinforce the view that AI investment is progressing from chip demand into sustained manufacturing expansion, potentially supporting a recovery across semiconductor equipment makers, foundries and the broader AI value chain.

The recent semiconductor selloff highlights how much optimism is already reflected in AI-related stocks.

The Philadelphia semiconductor index fell 2.7%, Micron about 4% and the memory-focused index 4.32%, while the broad index finished unchanged because money moved into other large caps rather than out of equities.

• Correlation read: three-month implied correlation at 11.75 remains very low and dispersion at 36.00 was unchanged, which is what let a two percent fall in semiconductors coexist with a flat index.

• Metals: Managed money reduced exposure across all metals, led by gold, as dollar strength and elevated US real yields continued to weigh on sentiment ahead of Wednesday's inflation print.

Gold has maintained a beta near zero across both periods.

However, gold, crude oil, and leveraged loans recorded the smallest average losses, providing greater relative downside protection than the other assets examined.

Gold prices are holding steady in early trade today with spot gold at USD 4,170/troy oz.

However, with rates still set to go higher by the end of the year, the outlook for gold remains rangebound.

Key resistance remains around USD 4,235, a level breached during the late-September sell-off and one that gold needs to reclaim to strengthen the case for a more sustained recovery.

• Precious metals find support: A sharp reversal lower in Treasury yields and the dollar helps gold challenge its downtrend, while silver's recovery from its weekly lows suggests renewed investor interest.

• Gold finds support despite macro headwinds: Falling real yields and resilient investment demand help gold recover from its post-CPI sell-off, but the technical outlook remains fragile.

• Silver continues to underperform: Weakness across industrial metals and a breakout in the gold-silver ratio above 72.60 raise the risk of further underperformance against gold.

While gold recovered from its initial sell-off as Treasury yields reversed sharply lower, technology stocks failed to respond positively to the decline in borrowing costs.

Gold futures are 1.45% higher at 4,167.3, recovering most of Wednesday’s post-print fall; the gold fund closed 1.49% lower and silver’s 6.11%.

The soum has gained 2% and should benefit from a catch-up in gold exports, supporting FX in the medium term.

• Metals: Gold trades steady near USD 4,160 after Tuesday’s decline, driven by renewed energy price strength and rising bond yields, was halted following comments from Fed official Williams suggesting that one further rate hike this year may be sufficient, with no additional tightening needed in 2027.

In contrast, equity markets in the euro area, the UK and most emerging economies display significantly lower betas.

We expect heightened fiscal and political risks in France to remain a headwind for euro performance heading into next year.