独联体月度报告 4 谁害怕更高的核心利率

关键论点

• 基准情景：选择性偏鸽且利好外汇，政策应对保持国别化。
• 哈萨克斯坦与乌兹别克斯坦仍有谨慎宽松空间，到2027年底前降息幅度限于1.0-1.5个百分点。
• 不利情景：核心收益率上升将削弱对坚戈和苏姆的套利支撑，使其更易受输入型通胀影响。
• 国内缓冲——哈萨克斯坦外汇抛售积压、乌兹别克斯坦黄金出口、亚美尼亚侨汇、阿塞拜疆主权资产——应能避免无序抛售。

对应原文证据

1. But resilience to more persistent global inflation and higher core rates could be put to the test through the exchange rate channel.
2. While we don't expect a sell-off, high real rates will be required to keep attracting portfolio inflows Higher oil prices are strengthening Azerbaijan's economic buffers Base is bliss: selectively dovish and FX-constructive Since the outbreak of Middle East tensions, the CIS-4 has weathered higher volatility, rising global inflation expectations and tighter core rates, easing some of our initial concerns.
3. Higher energy and freight costs lift imported inflation, but CIS-4 currencies, so far resilient to tighter global rates, should keep policy responses country- specific.