经常账户的季节性改善可能不足以让土耳其央行改变立场新兴市场宏观

关键论点

• 8月经常账户顺差具有高度季节性，由夏季旅游流入峰值驱动，预计土耳其央行将忽略这一因素。
• 随着夏季能源价格回落及中东油气出口增加，商品逆差为2026年迄今最窄。
• 自9月以来，央行已抛售108亿美元外汇储备，以在投资基金清盘期间保持里拉流动性充裕。
• 10月能源价格仍高企、布伦特高于每桶100美元，加之储备下降，支持在重启降息前保持谨慎。

对应原文证据

1. 1 13 October 2026 Seasonal improvement in current account likely not enough for CBRT 13 October 2026 EMERGING MARKET MACROECONOMICS Turkey ’s current account balance moved into surplus in August at USD 4.05bn, supported by a seasonal increase in the services surplus related to tourism flows and a narrower goods deficit thanks to lower energy prices during the month. · October 2026
2. The August print also reflected the narrowest goods deficit in 2026 year-to-date as energy prices were lower over the summer months compared with earlier in Q1/Q2 as oil and gas exports from the Middle East region moved higher. · 2026
3. We expect that the central bank will look through the highly seasonal improvement in the balance of payments and will still treat the disinflation path with caution: since the start of October energy prices have remained elevated with Brent futures holding above USD 100/b every day and gasoil prices holding onto gains reached last month.