市场快评 - 韩国芯片股大跌，美国银行财报季开始 - 2026年10月13日

盛宝银行2026/10/13更新于 2026/10/17

多经济体

可引用研究简报

核心结论 · Tlines 提取

中国CXMT内存设计进展引发亚洲芯片股大跌，韩国综合指数跌6.12%并触发熔断，三星和SK海力士遭抛售。美国银行财报及美国CPI等关键数据即将发布。油价在周一飙升后回落至105.50美元，金价持稳于4200美元附近，美债收益率下行。美元兑日元跌破200日均线。

机构: 盛宝银行
发布时间: 2026/10/13
研究主题: Inflation · S&P 500 · Semiconductors
时间范围: September 2026 · 2000

关键论点

中国竞争对手CXMT更密集的内存设计引发存储芯片抛售：费城半导体指数跌2.7%，美光跌4%，SanDisk跌6%，美股SK海力士跌约4%。
韩国区域表现最差：韩国综合指数跌6.12%至5,993.62，跌破6,000点并触发卖出侧交易限制，为近两个月来首次。
油价下跌1%至105.50美元，此前周一胡塞武装袭击沙特主要机场，布伦特原油一度升破107美元。
美债收益率小幅走低：2年期跌2个基点至约4.77%，10年期跌4个基点至略低于5.20%，受美元走软和油价回落支撑。

关键数字

日本PPI同比: 6.8%
韩国综合指数变动: -6.12%
日经225变动: -2.22%
布伦特原油: 105.50美元
黄金: 4,200美元

主要风险

中东地缘政治升级可能扰乱石油流通，逆转近期区域原油出口的复苏。
美国9月CPI若强于预期，可能推高美债收益率和美元，对黄金和风险资产构成压力。
法国预算辩论和持续的学生抗议可能进一步扩大法德收益率差，令欧洲市场不安。

对应原文证据

• Japan’s producer prices rose 6.8% year-on-year in September 2026, the weakest since May and below the expected 7.6%, signaling easing but still high inflation. · September 2026
Month-on-month, prices fell 0.3% for a second straight month, versus forecasts for a 0.5% rise.
• UK like-for-like retail sales rose 1.0% year-on-year in September 2026, above forecasts and August’s 0.5%. · September 2026

上下文：结论为 Tlines 自动提取，并非机构原话；带引号的证据为机构原文。引用时须同时保留机构、日期与时间范围。

在原始来源核验 ↗

完整研报正文

完整中文译文

市场快评 - 韩国芯片股大跌，美国银行财报季开始 - 2026年10月13日

市场驱动因素与催化剂

宏观：华盛顿面临支持沙特阿拉伯的压力，同时日本生产者通胀降温
股票：芯片制造商和首尔大幅下跌，中国内存设计进展被引为主要驱动因素
波动性：指数波动性从低位上升，而单日指标大幅下跌
数字资产：代币从隔夜暴跌中反弹，而上市矿企周一收低
大宗商品：油价因供应担忧持续而回落；黄金持稳，铜因中断担忧上涨
固定收益：美国国债收益率在长周末后开盘走低
外汇：美元兑日元回落至关键技术水平下方，美元强势减弱

宏观

在胡塞武装对利雅得机场发动致命袭击后，特朗普政府面临援助沙特阿拉伯的压力。泽连斯基誓言继续打击俄罗斯，因为俄罗斯以乌克兰能源电网为目标，无视特朗普的“能源停火”，而库什纳和威特科夫表示，允许俄罗斯柴油出口旨在吸引莫斯科重返谈判。
日本9月生产者价格同比上涨6.8%，为5月以来最弱，低于预期的7.6%，表明通胀放缓但仍处高位。环比价格下跌0.3%，连续第二个月下降，而预期为上涨0.5%。
英国9月同店零售销售同比上涨1.0%，2026,高于预期和8月的0.5%。总销售额增长1.3%，低于1.5%个月平均的12。食品销售上涨2.5%，非食品销售上涨0.3%。消费者支出增加2.0%，其中必需支出上涨2.5%（燃料+17.3%），非必需支出上涨1.8%。财务信心达到67%，尽管68%对预算感到担忧，30%削减了非必需支出。
中国9月汽车销量同比下降8.4%至2.956百万辆，其中乘用车下降9.5%，商用车上涨0.2%。新能源汽车销量上涨13.6%至1.823百万辆，占总销量的61.6%。1月至9月，总销量下降4.5%，而新能源汽车上涨11.1%至12.47百万辆（占新销量的53.6%）。9月总销量环比上涨9%。
澳大利亚央行会议纪要显示，两周前将现金利率上调至4.6%，因通胀上行风险成为现实，延迟可能代价高昂，并指出中东冲突将严重塑造前景，且准备在必要时进一步加息。

更多内容见我们的宏观分析与宏观经济新闻

宏观日历亮点（时间为GMT）

0600 – 德国9月CPI终值
0745 – 美联储沃勒（FOMC投票委员）讲话
1000 – 美国9月NFIB小企业乐观指数
1215 – 美国截至9月26的四周ADP就业人数周度变化
1400 – 美国9月成屋销售
0130 – 中国9月PPI和CPI

财报事件

周二：摩根大通、强生、联合健康、高盛、富国银行、花旗集团
周三：ASML、美国银行、摩根士丹利、贝莱德、Fastenal
周四：台积电、嘉信理财、盈透证券、Prologis

所有宏观、财报和股息事件请查看盛宝日历。

股票

美国：周一收盘涨跌互现，指数持平，芯片板块大幅下跌。标普500收跌0.06%至7,807.24，纳斯达克100下跌0.71%至30,664.70，道指上涨0.38%至51,856.18，罗素2000下跌0.45%至2,794.48。我们认为主导主题是内存抛售：费城半导体指数下跌2.7%，中国竞争对手CXMT在更密集的竞争性内存设计上取得进展被引为主要驱动因素，美光下跌约4%，SanDisk下跌6%，美国上市的SK海力士下跌约4%。DRAM指数下跌4.32%，广泛的半导体ETF下跌2.05%，AMD下跌2.28%，博通下跌1.88%。除芯片外，Meta上涨3.38%至742.96，其新的Muse AI模型被提及，eBay上涨4%，被摩根士丹利列为首选股。盘后交易中，FormFactor上涨5%，与Teradyne的300百万美元技术合作被提及。今早指数期货走软。
欧洲：周一普遍反弹。斯托克欧洲600上涨0.65%至635.66，富时100上涨1.0%至10,656,，汇丰对两者贡献最大，上涨2.3%。DAX上涨0.76%至25,277.68，CAC40上涨0.38%，欧洲斯托克50上涨0.45%至6,201.22，而SMI上涨0.66%。银行领涨复苏，板块指数上涨1.21%，此前两周下跌约8%，法国财政担忧被提及。Hensoldt飙升5.8%，莱茵金属上涨2.5%，而电信和科技板块滞后。区域基准仍低于8月纪录。
亚洲：今早普遍避险，韩国明显跑输区域。Kospi下跌6.12%至5,993.62，跌破6,000并触发卖方交易限制，为近两个月来首次，外国投资者加大了对三星电子和SK海力士的抛售，CXMT消息被提及。日经225在三天周末后复市下跌2.22%至67,500.78，恒生指数下跌0.39%，其科技子指数下跌1.54%。CSI 300下跌0.57%，ASX 200基本持平。

更多内容见我们的股票交易 - 股市分析与新闻

波动性

亚洲芯片主导的风险重置被引为触发因素。现货VIX上涨2.49%至15.21，而VIX1D暴跌14.70%至7.72，VIX9D上涨3.73%至11.68。VXN上涨1.41%至20.84，小盘股指标上涨1.10%至20.15，VVIX上涨1.24%至85.93。
现货曲线从7.72到VIX1Y在21.67处保持干净的期货升水，SKEW上涨0.47%至155.06。MOVE未更新，现货国债休市。SPX期权隐含预期波动：今日到期为27.0点，即0.35%，周五16十月为70.6点，即0.90%。

更多内容见我们的期权交易 - 股市分析与新闻

数字资产

比特币 ~83,221 +1.79% | 以太坊 ~2,505 +2.48% | IBIT 46.86 +0.67% | ETHA 56.95 +1.71% | 截至 ~06:00 CET

周一尾盘大幅下挫后，代币隔夜回升，据报道加密货币在 24 小时内清算规模接近 771 百万美元。上市相关板块周一收盘涨跌互现：Coinbase 上涨 0.56%，而 Cipher Mining 下跌 3.85%，Riot 下跌 2.46%，Marathon 下跌 2.18%。代币波动性缓和，DVOL 为 37.06。
美国现货加密基金录得自6月底以来最差单周表现。现货比特币ETF上周净流出 681 百万美元，现货以太坊ETF净流出 542 百万美元，以太坊产品连续第九个交易日出现资金外流。

大宗商品

原油：布伦特原油下跌 1%，报 105.50 美元，此前周一地缘政治风险溢价一度将价格推升至 107 美元上方。伦敦柴油期货连续第三日走软，此前俄罗斯部分解除柴油出口禁令，且特朗普总统意外决定允许进口俄罗斯柴油。周一油价上涨，此前伊朗支持的胡塞武装分子袭击沙特阿拉伯主要机场，加大华盛顿加大介入也门的压力，引发对地区局势进一步升级及潜在石油流动中断的担忧。近几周中东原油出口已恢复至接近战前水平，尽管伊朗持续袭击海湾航运，但最新进展凸显这一复苏的脆弱性。
金属：黄金在亚洲时段吸引买盘后交投于 4,200 美元附近，受美国国债走强、美元走软以及油价从周一高点回落支撑。关键阻力位预计在 4,235, 美元附近，该水平曾在9月底抛售中被突破。市场关注点转向本周密集的美国经济数据，包括周三公布的9月CPI，随后周四公布PPI和零售销售，以及周五美联储主席Kevin Warsh在国际货币基金组织的露面。这些事件可能共同影响债券收益率、美元以及贵金属的近期走向。与此同时，铜价升至两周高位，接近每磅 6.77 美元，此前智利Codelco一座矿山发生雪崩，引发新的供应担忧。在伦敦，现货对三个月价差周一扩大至每吨 181 美元的现货升水，为9月初以来最高，凸显近期供应趋紧。

更多内容见我们的《大宗商品新闻、分析与评论》

固定收益

美国国债收益率小幅走低，此前周一因银行假期未交易。基准 2 年期国债收益率周二早盘下跌两个基点，重回近几个交易日区间中部，接近 4.77%，而 10 年期国债收益率下跌四个基点至略低于 5.20%，为逾一周最低水平。
法国与德国 10 年期政府债券收益率价差周一再次扩大，收于 142 basis points 附近，为本轮周期最高日收盘水平，当日上升五个基点，因法国学生抗议进入第三周，且国民议会开始就法国预算展开辩论。欧洲短端收益率升至逾一周最高，基准德国 2 年期Schatz收益率上涨约三个基点至 3.15% 上方。

外汇

周二早盘美元强势缓和，USDJPY回落至其 200 日移动均线 158.55 下方，周一曾一度升至 158.75。EURUSD触及 17 个月新低 1.1154，随后反弹至先前低点 1.1161 上方，周二早盘报 1.1175。本周最受期待的宏观数据是周三公布的美国9月CPI。

更多外汇内容见我们的专栏：外汇交易新闻与分析

完整英文原文

Market drivers and catalysts

Macro: Pressure builds on Washington to back Saudi Arabia while Japanese producer inflation cools
Equities: Chipmakers and Seoul fell sharply, a Chinese memory design advance cited as the driver
Volatility: Index volatility firmed from a low base while the one-day gauge fell sharply
Digital Assets: Tokens recovered from an overnight flush while the listed miners finished Monday lower
Commodities: Oil eases as supply concerns persist; gold steadies and copper gains on disruption fears
Fixed Income: US Treasury yields open lower after long weekend
Currencies: USDJPY rolls back below key technical level as USD strength eases

Macro

The Trump administration faces pressure to aid Saudi Arabia after deadly Houthi strikes on Riyadh’s airport. Zelenskyy vows continued strikes on Russia as it targets Ukraine’s energy grid, defying Trump’s “energy ceasefire,” while Kushner and Witkoff say allowing Russian diesel exports aims to lure Moscow back to talks.
Japan’s producer prices rose 6.8% year-on-year in September 2026, the weakest since May and below the expected 7.6%, signaling easing but still high inflation. Month-on-month, prices fell 0.3% for a second straight month, versus forecasts for a 0.5% rise.
UK like-for-like retail sales rose 1.0% year-on-year in September 2026, above forecasts and August’s 0.5%. Total sales grew 1.3%, below the 1.5% 12‑month average. Food sales rose 2.5% and non-food 0.3%. Consumer spending increased 2.0%, with essential spending up 2.5% (fuel +17.3%) and non-essential up 1.8%. Financial confidence reached 67%, though 68% were worried about the budget and 30% cut non-essential spending.
China’s vehicle sales fell 8.4% year-on-year to 2.956 million in September 2026, with passenger cars down 9.5% and commercial vehicles up 0.2%. NEV sales rose 13.6% to 1.823 million, 61.6% of total sales. Over January–September, total sales fell 4.5% while NEVs rose 11.1% to 12.47 million (53.6% of new sales). Month-on-month, total sales rose 9% in September.
Australia’s RBA minutes say it lifted the cash rate to 4.6% two weeks ago as upside inflation risks materialized and delays could be costly, noting the Middle East conflict will heavily shape the outlook and that it stands ready to raise rates further if needed.

More in our Macro Analysis & Macroeconomic News

Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)

0600 – Germany Final Sep. CPI
0745 – US Fed’s Waller (FOMC Voter) to speak
1000 – US Sep. NFIB Small Business Optimism
1215 – US Weekly ADP Employment Change for four weeks ending Sep 26
1400 – US Sep. Existing Home Sales
0130 – China Sep. PPI and CPI

Earnings events

Tuesday: JP Morgan, Johnson & Johnson, UnitedHealth, Goldman Sachs, Wells Fargo, Citigroup
Wednesday: ASML, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, Blackrock, Fastenal
Thursday: TSMC, Charles Schwab, Interactive Brokers, Prologis

For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.

Equities

US: Monday ended split, with the index flat and the chip complex sharply lower. The S&P 500 closed 0.06% lower at 7,807.24, the Nasdaq 100 fell 0.71% to 30,664.70, the Dow added 0.38% to 51,856.18 and the Russell 2000 slipped 0.45% to 2,794.48. In our view the dominant theme was a memory selloff: the Philadelphia semiconductor index fell 2.7%, with progress reported by Chinese rival CXMT on a denser competing memory design cited as the driver, and Micron down about 4%, SanDisk 6% lower and US-listed SK Hynix off roughly 4%. The DRAM index fell 4.32% and the broad semiconductor ETF 2.05%, with AMD 2.28% lower and Broadcom 1.88%. Away from chips, Meta gained 3.38% to 742.96, its new Muse AI models cited, and eBay rallied 4%, a top-pick designation at Morgan Stanley cited. In after-hours trade FormFactor rose 5%, a USD 300 million technology collaboration with Teradyne cited. Index futures are softer this morning.
Europe: Monday brought a broad rebound. The Stoxx Europe 600 rose 0.65% to 635.66 and the FTSE 100 gained 1.0% to 10,656, with HSBC the top contributor to both, up 2.3%. The DAX added 0.76% to 25,277.68, the CAC 40 0.38% and the Euro Stoxx 50 0.45% to 6,201.22, while the SMI rose 0.66%. Banks led the recovery, the sector index up 1.21% after shedding roughly 8% over the prior two weeks, with French fiscal concerns cited. Hensoldt surged 5.8% and Rheinmetall 2.5%, while telecoms and technology lagged. The regional benchmark remains below its August record.
Asia: This morning is broadly risk-off and Korea is the clear regional underperformer. The Kospi has fallen 6.12% to 5,993.62, breaking below 6,000 and triggering a sell-side trading curb, the first in nearly two months, with foreign investors stepping up selling in Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, the CXMT news cited. The Nikkei 225 is 2.22% lower at 67,500.78 on its return from a three-day weekend, and the Hang Seng is 0.39% lower with its technology sub-index down 1.54%. The CSI 300 slipped 0.57% and the ASX 200 was little changed.

More in our Equity Trading - Stock Market Analysis & News

Volatility

A chip-led risk reset in Asia was cited as the trigger. Spot VIX rose 2.49% to 15.21, while VIX1D collapsed 14.70% to 7.72 and VIX9D firmed 3.73% to 11.68. VXN added 1.41% to 20.84 and the small-cap gauge 1.10% to 20.15, with VVIX up 1.24% to 85.93.
The cash curve holds a clean contango from 7.72 out to VIX1Y at 21.67, and SKEW firmed 0.47% to 155.06. MOVE did not update, cash Treasuries having been shut. SPX option-implied expected move: 27.0 points, or 0.35%, for today's expiry and 70.6 points, or 0.90%, for Friday 16 October.

More in our Options Trading - Stock Market Analysis & News

Digital Assets

BITCOIN ~83,221 +1.79% | ETHEREUM ~2,505 +2.48% | IBIT 46.86 +0.67% | ETHA 56.95 +1.71% | AS OF ~06:00 CET

Tokens recovered overnight after a sharp late-Monday flush, with crypto liquidations reported near USD 771 million over 24 hours. The listed complex closed Monday mixed: Coinbase added 0.56% while Cipher Mining fell 3.85%, Riot 2.46% and Marathon 2.18%. Token volatility eased, DVOL at 37.06.
US spot crypto funds recorded their worst week since late June. Spot bitcoin ETFs saw USD 681 million of net outflows last week and spot ether ETFs USD 542 million, with the ether products extending an outflow run into a ninth session.

Commodities

Oil: Brent trades down 1% at USD 105.50 after Monday’s geopolitical risk premium briefly lifted prices above USD 107. London gasoil futures are softer for a third consecutive day following Russia’s partial lifting of its diesel export ban and President Trump’s surprise decision to allow imports of Russian diesel. Oil rallied on Monday after attacks by Iran-backed Houthi militants on Saudi Arabia’s main airport increased pressure on Washington to intensify its involvement in Yemen, raising concerns about further regional escalation and potential disruptions to oil flows. Middle Eastern crude exports have recovered to near pre-war levels in recent weeks, despite continued Iranian attacks on shipping in the Gulf, but the latest developments highlight the fragility of that recovery.
Metals: Gold trades near USD 4,200 after attracting buying interest in Asia, supported by firmer US Treasuries, a softer dollar and oil prices retreating from Monday’s spike. Key resistance is seen around USD 4,235, a level breached during the late-September sell-off. Attention now turns to a busy week of US economic releases, including September CPI on Wednesday, followed by PPI and retail sales on Thursday, and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s appearance at the IMF on Friday. Together, these events could shape the near-term direction of bond yields, the dollar and, consequently, precious metals. Meanwhile, copper climbed to a two-week high near USD 6.77 per pound after an avalanche at a Codelco mine in Chile raised fresh supply concerns. In London, the cash-to-three-month spread widened to a backwardation of USD 181 per tonne on Monday, its highest since early September, highlighting tightening nearby availability.

More in our Commodity News, Analysis & Commentary

Fixed Income

US treasury yields edged lower after not trading on Monday due to a bank holiday. The benchmark 2-year treasury yield fell two basis points early Tuesday putting it back in the middle fo the range of the last few trading days near 4.77%, while the 10-year treasury yield fell four basis points to just below 5.20%, the lowest level in more than a week.
The France-Germany 10-year government debt yield spread widened again Monday, ending the day near 142 basis points, the highest daily close of the cycle and up five basis points on the day as French student protests entered their third week and debate on the French budget began in the National Assembly. Short European yields rose to the highest in more than a week, with the benchmark German 2-year Schatz about three basis points to above 3.15%.

Currencies

US dollar strength eased early Tuesday as USDJPY rolled back below its 200-day moving average at 158.55 after trading as high as 158.75 Monday. EURUSD hit a new 17-month low at 1.1154 before bouncing back above the prior low-water mark of 1.1161, trading 1.1175 early Tuesday. The most anticipated macro data point this week is the US September CPI release on Wednesday.

More on currencies in our dedicated section: Forex Trading News & Analysis

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