外汇与大宗商品持仓报告（COT）

关键论点

• 美元多头拥挤且单边化，若基本面或技术面转变，反转风险上升；报告以7月底的平仓为前例。
• 受欧洲政治与财政动荡及英国仓位走软影响，欧元和英镑空头创多年新高。
• 黄金出现分化：ETF持仓创四年新高，而管理资金将期货净多头削减至四个月低点。
• 谷物多头平仓延续第四周，玉米领跌；偏空的WASDE报告引发2023年以来最大单日跌幅。

对应原文证据

1. • Forex: Speculators lifted their gross dollar long by 27% to an 11-week high of USD 44.6 billion, a USD 37 billion increase in just four weeks, raising the risk of a crowded trade reversal.
2. • Metals: Managed money reduced exposure across all metals, led by gold, as dollar strength and elevated US real yields continued to weigh on sentiment ahead of Wednesday's inflation print.
3. Dollar strength was particularly pronounced against the euro, amid ongoing political and fiscal turmoil in Europe, and the Mexican peso, which fell to its lowest level of the year after minutes from the latest central bank meeting suggested policymakers were increasingly open to rate cuts, undermining the currency’s carry appeal.