观点

Key trade ties look set to remain stable through year-end, which should keep this year s key growth engine humming Source: Shutterstock USD 938.1bn China's trade surplus through 3Q26 Higher than expected Exports stronger than execrated again in September China's exports grew 36.3% year-on-year in September, up from 25.0%, far stronger than forecasts (market: 25.7%, ING: 24.8%).

1 14th October 2026 More volatile market conditions remains the key risk 14 th October 2026 USD: Energy & AI risks to volatility G10 FX volatility is starting to turn lower again after the recent spike higher as the US dollar strengthened in response to the surge in sovereign bond yields.

THE 3MTH ANNUALISED CORE PCE INFLATION RATE HAS FALLEN STEADILY TO HIT THE 2% FED TARGET RATE IN AUGUST Source: Bloomberg, Macrobond, MUFG Research USD: CPI data release a key momentum for rates & FX The main macroeconomic event arrives today with the release of the September CPI data.

Near-term though the Fed look set to hike again and any upside surprise in today’s data would likely trigger another rates sell-off and extend the dollar further stronger.

Nevertheless, we expect the Singapore dollar to continue outperforming its regional peers, supported by Singapore's resilient macroeconomic fundamentals.

13 October 2026 Market Highlights Amidst a general environment of a stronger Dollar and somewhat weaker risk sentiment, the big move in the Asian currencies has been the Indian Rupee, with spot onshore INR strengthening by 1% against the US dollar over the past day.

We are forecasting USD/INR to gradually rise higher to 97.50 by the September quarter next year, with RBI likely to take more measures if INR were to weaken further from here.

• Bloomberg Asia USD Investment Grade spread traded flat at 60bps, and the Asia USD High Yield spreads also traded flat at 359bps.

1 JPY Weekly │13 October 2026 JPY Weekly USD/JPY: How long will the current range hold?

We expect broad dollar strength would likely push the USD/JPY above its closely watched 200 -day moving average if the CPI and Chair Warsh's speech instead trigger a sharp reversal in expectations and markets once again come to expect an October hike.

With President Donald Trump also expressing concern about yen undervaluation, her remarks could be read as signaling that the authorities would not tolerate a sustained rise in the USD/JPY above 160.

In other words, the marginal dollar of capital is increasingly being deployed into loans with wider spreads, lower leverage, greater borrower equity support, and stronger debt-servicing capacity.

1 13 October 2026 Seasonal improvement in current account likely not enough for CBRT 13 October 2026 EMERGING MARKET MACROECONOMICS Turkey ’s current account balance moved into surplus in August at USD 4.05bn, supported by a seasonal increase in the services surplus related to tourism flows and a narrower goods deficit thanks to lower energy prices during the month.

AI Capex AI Capex Forecasts (2025-2032) World’s largest economies (2026 GDP) vs. global AI capex spend, USD tn The Global Competition for Capital / OCT 2026 / page 40 AI Capex Supercycle in Historical Context Source: (1) WSJ, “The AI Build -Out is Becoming the Biggest Economic Bet in US History.” Brookings Institution, “Financing the AI Buildout” (Stijn van Nieuwerburgh).

2026 projected AI investment by region (infrastructure, software & services), USD tn China $355 bn UK $205 bn Germany $180 bn Japan $155 bn France $110 bn India $95 bn Saudi Arabia $85 bn S.

A potential Fed pause in October may temporarily ease the external pressure, but we do not think it is sufficient to reverse the rupiah trend while Indonesia-specific risks are increasing.

The Fed lifted rates to 3.75% to 4% in September, its first increase since 2023, and most officials still expect one more this year with the next meeting due on 28 October.

Despite the stronger US inflation d ata, which further highlights the limited progress towards the Fed’s inflation objective, market participants have been reluctant to price in a more hawkish policy path.

Federal Reserve Chair Warsh said hotter inflation had not changed his outlook, which was read as reducing the odds of an increase on 28 October.

Overall, the report leaves the Fed questioning how much progress is being made on underlying inflation, keeping further rate hikes on the table.Europe Several members of the European Central Bank’s Governing Council, speaking at the IMF meetings in Bangkok this week, indicated that further interest rate rises may be necessary.

The Fed generally raises interest rates when nominal economic growth is strong and cuts rates when economic conditions are deteriorating.

Rather than viewing every Fed hike as a warning to pull back, history suggests investors may want to consider a different response.

It has climbed meaningfully, suggesting the market believes the Fed may have more rate hikes to go.

For now, it’s difficult to see the Fed being forced to raise rates to a level that meaningfully derails economic growth.

The Fed may have more tightening ahead, but that doesn’t necessarily mean it’s on a path toward ending the cycle.

The Fed generally raises interest rates when nominal economic growth is strong.

Rate cuts, by contrast, often occur because economic conditions are deteriorating and the Fed is responding to that weakness.

But that only permitted other men with machines to enslave them ” -Frank Herbert, Dune ► US inflation drifted higher in September, but Fed speakers have suggested that apause ismore likely than not.

Inflation moved inthe wrong direction inSeptember Source: Natixis, Bloomberg We had said that anything near consensus would not likely shift the narrative for the Fed for October, but this isfar enough from consensus to at least make itadebate.

September’s data gives the hawks more ammo to argue for ahike, but ultimately we think the Fed will pause when itmeets inafew weeks Retail sales rose more than expected inSeptember, rising 0.8% m/m, but was primarily driven by higher gas prices.

The Fed’s Beige Book suggested that higher-income consumer continue to drive spending as lower-income Americans have become more cautious with purchases.

The Fed will also begin its external communications blackout period tomorrow, ahead of the FOMC meeting scheduled on October 27 –28.