观点

We look for ISM manufacturing index to increase in August, rising to 56.1 from 55.6 in July.

We look for the index to post a modest increase to 54.7 in August with rebounds in employment and supplier deliveries.

Scotia's house call is +300k to March 2026 payrolls for an average of about +25k per month from April 2025 to March 2026.

Monthly GDP figures up to June and our early estimate for July—when hours worked jumped higher by 0.6% m/m SA—imply baked-in Q3 GDP growth of 1.8% q/q SAAR.

Tokyo’s core CPI reading in August remained hot at 3.7% m/m SAAR (0.3% m/m SA).

the surge in the 10-year Treasury yield to just shy of 4.7% has backed into higher mortgage rates.

The renewed strength comes after reports that President Trump told mediators the US has no intention of returning to the terms of the June Memorandum of Understanding.

Venezuela is considering leaving the group as relations with the US improve following the ousting of Nicolas Maduro at the start of the year.

European gas prices also jumped yesterday as hopes of a resumption in US/Iran talks faded. TTF settled 3.8% higher on the day.

European gas storage remains tight, and the region will struggle to hit the lower storage target of 75% ahead of the heating season.

Zinc for immediate delivery traded almost $200/t above the three-month contract on Wednesday.

The European Commission’s latest Sugar Market Observatory projects EU sugar production to decline by 19% year-on-year to 13.4mt in the 2026/27 season.

On the US data front, initial jobless claims fell by 4k to 203k in the week ended 22 August, below consensus of 208k and marking a second consecutive weekly decline.

TD reported strong 3QFY2026 earnings with growth broad-based across core franchises. Adjusted net income rose to CAD4.7bn (+21% y/y) and adjusted ROE at 16%.

Mainland China was higher at USD72 in 1H2026 (1H2025: USD68), while RevPAR for HKSAR was higher at USD248 in 1H2026 (1H2025: USD222). Singapore Re vPAR was USD200 in 1H2026, higher than 1H2025’s USD192.

Further losses cannot be ruled out if selling prices or market conditions weaken relative to current net realisable value assumptions, but the smaller remaining development exposure limits the potential Group-level impact.

The SGD SORA OIS curve traded higher yesterday with the shorter tenors trading flat to 4bps higher, belly tenors trading 4bps higher, and the 10Y tenor trading 3bps higher .

Asian asset owners are reassessing gold’s strategic role as inflation shocks, less reliable equity–bond diversification, currency volatility, and geopolitical fragmentation make portfolio construction more challenging.

Policy support is also widening asset owner access: the 2025 pilot program allows selected insurers to allocate up to 1% of assets to gold.

Reforms to broaden access to gold ETFs within Hong Kong's Mandatory Provident Fund (MPF) system could unlock a meaningful source of long-term retirement capital.

Taiwan's rising overseas and US dollar exposures may reinforce the case for gold as a strategic allocation among insurers and pension funds.

central banks accumulated an average of around 1,000 tonnes annually over the past four years, and 89% of respondents expect global central bank gold reserves to increase over the next 12 months (Figure 5).

Physically backed gold ETFs offer direct exposure to the gold price without the custody requirements of physical bullion or the need to roll futures positions, making them an increasingly attractive vehicle for strategic gold allocations.

And over time, Asian asset owners are likely to become an increasingly important driver of long-term gold demand.

Second, he stressed that 2% on the personal consumption expenditure (PCE) deflator is “a firm fixed target” on which the Fed must deliver.

Unless the inflation picture improves significantly, it will be hard for the Fed to justify not raising rates.

These kinds of interventions are less like quantitative easing than like rearranging the chairs on the deck of… Well, no, let's not go that far.

See the latest forecasts for real GDP, policy rates, foreign exchange rates and commodities.

Second, assessments of financial conditions can put more weight on the short end of the yield curve than the long end.

Domestic demand growth is holding at an above above-trend pace over the first half of 2026, with a large share flowing into activities with high import content (including the purchase of EVs, data centre equipment and aircraft) resulting in a drag from net exports.

As we have previously noted, the data centre and renewables investment surge is unlikely to be smooth, with the timing of large projects generating significant quarter-to-quarter volatility.

And, as in Q1, the moderation in wages growth we saw in the Q2 WPI is likely to limit any associated increase in the economy’s cost base.

The German economic cycle appears to have turned to the upside.

The picture remains consistent with a gradual structural weakness in the dollar over the medium term, fuelled by increased buybacks of long-term US debt and discussions regarding coordination between the Treasury and the Fed to keep yields in check.

· EUR/USD maintains a moderately bullish bias towards 1.18 in the medium term.

· JPY remains the currency with the best potential for structural appreciation amongst the major currencies should the Bank of Japan’s monetary policy normalisation continue and yield differentials with the US narrow.

The recovery in confidence is once again being driven by capital goods manufacturers ( whose confidence rose from 88.6 to 91.1 , returning to February levels – that is , pre - war levels in Iran ) , whilst confidence in the consumer goods sector remained largely stable and fell in the intermediate goods industry .