市场波动加剧仍是主要风险 · 外汇每日快照

关键论点

• 在美元因主权债券收益率飙升而走强后，G10外汇波动率在近期急升后再度回落，债券市场波动率也出现类似的小幅回撤。
• 若债券收益率已在新均衡附近企稳，利率与外汇波动率可能进一步下行；但MUFG认为当前收益率飙升仍存在进一步上行的更大风险。
• 中东方面，市场共识预期能源价格不会回撤、当前状态将延续，但MUFG认为风险更偏向危机恶化。
• 胡塞武装袭击达兰沙特阿美总部及其他城市，提高了美国介入支持沙特的概率，这可能推动能源价格进一步跳升。

对应原文证据

1. 1 14th October 2026 More volatile market conditions remains the key risk 14 th October 2026 USD: Energy & AI risks to volatility G10 FX volatility is starting to turn lower again after the recent spike higher as the US dollar strengthened in response to the surge in sovereign bond yields. · October 2026
2. There has been a similar modest retracement in bond market volatility as well and if bond yields have settled around a new equilibrium then we could see volatility come down further in both rates and FX.
3. An escalation of renewed attacks would likely see investors price in a more prolonged conflict that would see crude oil prices move toward the peak earlier this year. · this year