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The Korean won is an incredible 16% stronger versus the US dollar H2-to-date despite the Kospi falling notably as the AI trade suffers.
These big moves continue to highlight the potential for positions being unwound which could see the US dollar suffer given the recent strengthening and demand for the dollar.
That richness in the yield curve will likely act to curtail near- term momentum for further appreciation of the dollar.
The pound is roughly unchanged versus the US dollar since the end of June with only the energy-related CAD and NOK outperforming and the yen, helped by yen buying intervention by the MoF, with assistance from the US.
USD/KRW: BoK likely to hold next week The Korea ’s equity market experienced a sharp correction as concerns over AI funding lingered throughout the week, down by as much as 16% on Thursday before some mild recovery ended the week.
In time, both trade and income receipts from offshore investment should buoy the renminbi, although for now continued outbound foreign investment should moderate the pace of gains against other nations in the region, and likely versus the US dollar.
Europe is weathering the energy shock better than feared and has far more fiscal room to respond than the US – one reason we still see the US dollar trending lower over the next two years.
Lower Treasury yields can weigh on the dollar, while the yen and Swiss franc benefit from defensive flows.
Saudi Arabia announced two major investment agreements worth a combined USD 4.3bn, supporting electricity infrastructure expansion and industrial diversification under Vision 2030.
The first agreement involves a USD 2.2bn power-generation project, aimed at strengthening the Kingdom’s electricity supply capacity and meeting rising demand from industrial development and economic expansion.
A separate USD 2.1bn energy-equipment manufacturing project will expand domestic production capabilities, localise supply chains and reduce reliance on imported industrial equipment.
• Currencies: US dollar tracks US treasury yields as rally to new cycle high on CPI later erased • US inflation reaccelerated in September.
BlackRock beat, with assets under management at USD 15.49 trillion.
Within hours, the spike higher in short-dated US yields and the dollar reversed as the market switched its attention to the sell-off in the debt markets of some high-profile AI companies.
The dollar rally followed some hot US CPI data, which questioned whether the Fed, after all, would have to deliver a back-to-back hike in October.
It is a high-yield issuer, but its 2032 bonds trading at 78 cents on the dollar are raising some eyebrows and questioning whether the buy-side has limitless appetite to fund the AI build-out.
Rather than rallying as a safe haven, the dollar weakens as the Fed cycle gets repriced dovishly.
Expect investors to keep an eye on the debt of the big AI issuers today, and any further sell-off could weigh on the dollar.
But today's macro inputs should be mildly dollar supportive, where a decent September retail sales figure and firm PPI data will keep the market guessing how quickly the Fed tightens again.
We imagine dollar sellers will emerge should DXY return to the 102.40/50 area.
Chris Turner EUR: Some consolidation may be due EUR/USD touched the 1.1100/1120 target area, which we had been highlighting in recent weeks, but it has quickly reversed.
But let's see whether this AI correction story has legs and is enough to drag EUR/USD back to the 1.1300/1350 area – purely from the dollar side.
Summary: A wild day on Wednesday as a hot US CPI number at first pumped the US dollar and US treasury yields higher, only for both to reverse sharply lower.
At the same time, US stocks sold off throughout, suggesting that the US dollar correlations with risk sentiment may not be what they used to.
The US dollar and US treasury yields saw a wild reaction to the hot US CPI numbers, which were 0.1% higher than expected for the core month-on-month and year-on-year readings at +0.3% and 2.6%, respectively.
It’s a classic one-day reversal, made all the more emphatic by occurring over a key macro event risk that should theoretically have supported the US dollar.
It was yesterday’s CPI that set things in motion and now it is about whether global risk sentiment can find its feet here or we are in for a bigger mark-down in risk assets, one that, as we argue above, could prove surprisingly non-supportive for the US dollar.
A big jolt lower for the AUD (note the hefty negative shift in the 2-day momentum), while we can also see there is a lot more needed to reverse the USD bull run.
Nonetheless, the move higher in Treasury yields and the stronger dollar are contributing to tighter monetary conditions, which will weigh on growth.
The dollar broadly prices in this scenario and a split Congress probably will not be significant enough to drag attention away from elevated inflation and a Fed intent on delivering at least one more rate hike.
A prolonged government shutdown could start to weigh on the dollar in the second half of 2027, however.
The Reserve Bank of India introduced a dollar swap facility in June, designed to encourage borrowers to raise dollar-denominated debt with a lower cost of hedging.
By contrast, we are mildly bullish on the Korean won, Singapore dollar, and Taiwanese dollar, which continue to benefit from strong AI-related exports and rising trade surpluses.
1 15th October 2026 AI wobble puts dampener on USD strength 15 th October 2026 USD: AI sell-off triggers quick reversal of US CPI report driven gains The US dollar has weakened overnight quickly giving back yesterday’s initial gains after the release of the stronger than expected US CPI report for September.
The reversal lower for Us yields and US dollar appears to have been driven mainly by an unwind of AI-related trades overnight resulting in more risk-off trading conditions.
After record capital inflows into the US equity market encouraged by investor optimism over AI ( click here ), the price action overnight highlights that it leaves the US dollar vulnerable to a correction lower when investor sentiment towards AI sours.
1 Asia FX Talk │15 October 2026 Asia FX Talk Hotter US CPI keeps USD firm 15 October 2026 Market Highlights US inflation accelerated more than expected in September.
Nonetheless, US yields are still at an elevated level, while the dollar continues to hold relatively firm in the near term.
In Indonesia, elevated US yields weaken the relative appeal of Indonesian assets and leave the rupiah sensitive to foreign portfolio outflows; we reiterate our end-2026 USD/IDR forecast of 18,350.
We maintain our end-2026 USD/THB forecast at 34.10.
Key trade ties look set to remain stable through year-end, which should keep this year s key growth engine humming Source: Shutterstock USD 938.1bn China's trade surplus through 3Q26 Higher than expected Exports stronger than execrated again in September China's exports grew 36.3% year-on-year in September, up from 25.0%, far stronger than forecasts (market: 25.7%, ING: 24.8%).
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