MAS按兵不动，但我们尚不认为紧缩周期已经结束

关键论点

• 金管局维持政策不变，令预期小幅收紧的市场感到意外；新元名义有效汇率政策区间斜率维持在估计的1.25%，区间宽度与中点均未调整。
• 声明基调偏鸽：2026年核心通胀预测下调至1.5-2.0%，通胀风险评估更趋平衡，上行因素部分被中东能源供应更快恢复、生产率提升以及医疗和教育补贴增加所抵消。
• ING不认同鸽派解读：增长保持韧性、产出缺口为正且通胀上行风险犹存，表明金管局尚未结束收紧，若通胀风险兑现，1月可能行动。
• ING预计新元将继续跑赢区域货币，得益于强劲基本面，但汇率已接近政策区间上端，进一步升值空间有限。

对应原文证据

1. MAS maintained the pace of appreciation of the SGD NEER policy band at our estimated 1.25%, with no adjustments to the width of the band or its centre.
2. MAS lowered its 2026 core inflation forecast to 1.5-2.0%, from 1.5-2.5% previously projected at its July policy review, while noting that headline inflation is likely to average around 2%. · 2026
3. Separately, Singapore's 3Q GDP growth came in stronger than expected at 5.4% year-on-year, underscoring the economy's resilience.