美联储加息时投资出人意料的理由

关键论点

• 自1989年以来，加息后1年、2年和3年的股票回报均强于降息后。
• 加息通常意味着名义增长强劲、有利于企业盈利；降息往往是对经济恶化的回应。
• 通常终结周期的是最后一次加息而非第一次；当前通胀预期受控、就业增长温和，难以看出美联储会被迫加息至明显拖累增长的水平。
• 在紧缩期间持续加仓股票在历史上是良好策略，但未必是最优策略。

对应原文证据

1. Historically, the stock market performed better over the subsequent 1-, 2- and 3-year periods following rate hikes than it did following rate cuts.
2. The Fed generally raises interest rates when nominal economic growth is strong and cuts rates when economic conditions are deteriorating.
3. Rather than viewing every Fed hike as a warning to pull back, history suggests investors may want to consider a different response.