美国中期选举：市场面临的三种情景

关键论点

• 共和党保住国会可能性最低，但对美元最有利：财政宽松叠加美联储加息压力，将推升整条收益率曲线。
• 民主党掌控众议院是市场主流预期，将造成政策僵局，并可能在2027年仲夏引发债务上限之争。
• 民主党全胜将加大对关税与伊朗政策的反击，财政担忧持续，受行政分支掣肘，美元仅面临温和走弱风险。
• 预计中国将观望并依据实际政策变化行动；1月贸易休战到期是关键触发点。

对应原文证据

1. We look at the three possible scenarios and what they may mean for the economy and markets President Donald Trump’s approval rating has hit new lows as we approach the US midterms in November The US midterm elections are on 3 November, with all 435 House of Representatives seats and 35 of the 100 Senate seats up for election.
2. While few expect the president to follow through with his promise of $5,000 checks for returning Republicans to Congress, more defence spending will not be fully offset by efficiency savings or lower healthcare expenditure.
3. Should the president force through “Trump dividend” payments, the Federal Reserve will come under even more market pressure to respond with higher interest rates, raising fears of a boom-bust cycle.