观点

While they rebounded after their Iran war ceasefire negotiations began, flows of bonds and equities have recently decreased, particularly with equity flows experiencing a sharp fall.

That ambiguity is deliberate as Warsh rejects a mechanical Taylor rule and believes an explicit rate path would recreate the shortcomings of forward guidance. Investors therefore received a clearer assessment of the current state of play, but not the predictable reaction function many wanted.

In 2025, France had the second largest public spending in the euro area after Finland, at 57.3% of GDP.

Our analysis of spending by category based on 2024 COFOG data reveals that healthcare and social protection are the primary drivers of the public expenditure gap between France and other major European economies.

Over the 2010 – 2024 period, pension expenditure averaged 13.4% of GDP in France, compared to 10.7% in the Eurozone and 9.3% in Germany.

While the government has targeted a public deficit of 5.0% for 2026, this goal remains ambitious.

Undoubtedly, the fiscal burden of public expenditure — and of the social security system in particular — will take center stage in the upcoming French presidential election.

Polymarket and Kalshi continue to indicate that the probability that Lula wins is around 60%.

The figures show a 7.1% year-on-year increase in gross average earnings in June 2026. This represents a huge slowdown compared with the previous month and is the lowest figure since 2021 (excluding the dip in 2023 caused by the base effect of the one-off bonus for armed forces).

The latest June data has not altered our overall outlook, so we are still expecting annual average wage growth of around 9-10% for 2026 as a whole.

Rather than the double-digit growth previously seen, the increase in June was just 5%. As salaries have been significantly cut in many areas for public servants, a further slowdown is expected here in the coming months.

If somehow a hawkish read emerges, then the dollar can advance against the low-yielders of CHF and JPY.

The Korean won continues its advance. The driver this week has been back-to-back rate hikes from the Bank of Korea, with the policy rate now a reasonably high 3.00%.

But with 12% implied yields through the forwards and the chance of a regime change, we suspect the real can continue to comfortably outperform the steep forward curve.

Agentforce and Data 360 annual recurring revenue (ARR) reached nearly 3.9 billion USD, up more than 210%.

AI products generated more than 25% of new annual contract value, while more than 5,500 customers now use at least one Workday agent.

Its software sits inside project workflows, giving AI access to rich technical context.

First, a US-style 30-year mortgage that is both fixed-rate and cheap to refinance is unlikely to become the norm in Australia.

For households, the main incentive comes from the tax system. For owner-occupiers at least, mortgage interest is not tax deductible, unlike in the US.

The US model of 30-year fixed rate mortgages that are cheap to refinance is unlikely to be replicated in Australia.

At 94.5, up from 94.2 in July, it has recovered to its highest level since the US strike on Iran

When you look at surveys of consumer sentiment and broader measures it is clear that consumers are feeling uneasy amongst all this change.

Its Falcon Flex ARR exceeded 2.29 billion USD, up 101%, suggesting customers increasingly want a broader security platform.

Subscription ARR rose 33% to 1.66 billion USD, while its strategy increasingly includes securing AI-agent activity.

The economy has now accumulated six consecutive rolling quarters of employment destruction, with adverse weather conditions recorded in July further exacerbating an already weakened labour market.

Current U.S. tariffs and counter Canadian tariffs are not yet large enough to derail the Canadian economy’s recovery

Yet markets are still pricing at least two more hikes from both the ECB and the Bank of England.

That said, he has done enough today to validate the market discount that had been biased in the direction of a rate hike risk to begin with. That discount has hardened.

The immediate reaction was a flattening of the Treasury yield curve, with a meaningful tick up in short-term yields.

The yield curve has come out of this flatter from both ends. The front end has been hurt (2yr yield), while the back end has been comforted (30yr yield a tad down).

It surprised modestly to the upside on both a headline (1.0%/3.5%yr) and trimmed mean basis (0.5%/3.6%yr).

Construction activity disappointed, a 2.1% decline in Q2 bringing annual growth down to 2.1%yr. Most of the decline was driven by the mining sector following the completion of a large mining infrastructure installation in WA earlier in the year.

US GDP growth was unrevised in Q2’s second estimate at 1.5% annualised. In the detail, household consumption was revised up a touch (3.2% to 3.4% annualised) but offset by marginal downward revisions to business investment and government spending, as well as a larger drag from net exports.

US personal consumption growth then beat expectations in July as it rose 0.2%, aided by a 0.4% increase in incomes. That said, the deflator was also 0.1ppts stronger at 0.2%, leaving real consumption flat for the month

US new home sales unexpectedly dropped by 10.5% in July to an annualised pace of just 607k – a new low for 2026.

In August, the index held near its lowest level in 18 months – a level also materially below the historic average. Cost of living pressures are critical to consumers’ concern: inflation has outpaced wage growth since the pandemic and workers fear this trend will continue, with 1-year inflation expectations remaining elevated in August at 5.8%yr

Today, Open Fiber is Italy’s largest wholesale fibre-to-the-home operator, with more than 162,700 kilometres of network connecting over 20 million households nationwide, helping to expand access to high-speed broadband and support economic growth.

The aim is to install more than 500 electric vehicle charging service areas on urban and suburban roads across the country.

Macquarie Capital recently partnered with Chiron Energy to establish a renewable energy platform that aims to develop at least 1 GW of solar capacity and 500 MW of battery storage across Italy.

Since 2017, it has raised approximately €2.7 billion from more than 50 Italian investors through fund structures and co-investment opportunities.

Local expertise and a successful track record of developing partnerships on the ground are also necessary for successfully managing infrastructure investments in Italy, says Ricci, given the highly regulated environment and significant political, social and community interest.

Our central case is that we will see a diplomatic resolution that reopens the Strait to traffic in the next 4-6 weeks, avoiding critical shortfalls across oil and other key markets.

We now shouldn’t expect major economic shocks once a decade, but more like once every 1-2 years.

In 2025, our internal measure of household income growth was running at very strong annual rates of above 10% in nominal terms. That has now stepped down to 7-8%.

However, the BoE says that, drawing on the evidence being developed through its assessment, blueprint work, technology experiments, and engagements with industry, academia and civil society, it and HM Treasury intend to set out their decision on next steps by the end of 2026.

As of the end of June 2026, no ARTs have been authorised compared with 40 EMTs.

Before the speech, it was priced at a 34% probability for a hike. It's now at 54%.

The 2yr yield is up to 4.3%, pushing the carry spread to the funds rate out to above 66bp.

Typically, when that gets to 75bp there is an imminent hike priced.

The 5yr part of the curve is de-richening (cheapening) also, which points to an increased worry on the rate hike risk.