观点

Germany maintains a relatively stable structure, characterized by a substantial share of intermediate goods (46%) and consumer goods (28%), which is consistent with its positioning within industrial value chains.

In Italy, the expansion of consumer goods (+3.8 percentage points) was accompanied by adecline in the share of intermediate goods (-4.1 percentage points), although the latter still account for the largest share of Italian exports (43%).

Following the broad-based collapse in 2020, intermediate goods emerged as one of the primary drivers of the 2021 –2022 recovery, particularly in Portugal, but also in Spain and Italy.

1 Asia FX Talk │13 October 2026 Asia FX Talk RBI’s INR measures may help spot FX, but for how long?

All these pressures have also come despite the substantial US$140bn FCNR(B) inflows after the June 2026 measures from RBI (see India: Too much of a good thing ).

Expansion beyond this would take more time, possibly as much as 3 years.

In the energy sector, Vena Energy outlined plans to invest PHP52bn over the next two years in renewable energy projects, targeting up to 1.29 gigawatts of additional power generation capacity in line with the government’s renewable energy targets of 35% by 2030 and 50% by 2040.

• US Investment Grade spreads traded flat at 81bps, and US High Yield spreads also traded flat at 308bps.

Credit Headlines: • Genting Bhd (GENT): Proposes a MYR1.25bn rights issue, with MYR800mn allocated to debt repayment, which is estimated to reduce annual interest expense by MYR41.3mn, and MYR429.5mn allocated to working capital and corporate needs; major shareholders have committed to 45.1% of the issue, with the remainder underwritten.

Meanwhile, Singapore's Straits Times Index has retreated 6.6% from its recent peak, largely due to profit-taking and earnings downgrade concerns surrounding the three local banks, creating a more attractive entry point for investors seeking exposure to quality Singapore financial stocks.

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• US banks kick off Q3 earnings on 13–14 October, with expectations for healthy profits despite the recent selloff in bank shares.

The KBW Bank Index has fallen around 13% since August, even as analysts continue to expect healthy earnings growth.

The RBA’s Monetary Policy Board unanimously raised the cash rate by a quarter of percentage point to 4.60% at its 28 to 29 September meeting, after concluding several risks identified only a month earlier had either materialised or intensified.

The RBA said indications of a higher global “neutral” interest rate could mean a 4.35% cash rate was less restrictive than it had been two years earlier.

Month-on-month, prices fell 0.3% for a second straight month, versus forecasts for a 0.5% rise.

• UK like-for-like retail sales rose 1.0% year-on-year in September 2026, above forecasts and August’s 0.5%.

Financial confidence reached 67%, though 68% were worried about the budget and 30% cut non-essential spending.

Banks led the recovery, the sector index up 1.21% after shedding roughly 8% over the prior two weeks, with French fiscal concerns cited.

The Nikkei 225 is 2.22% lower at 67,500.78 on its return from a three-day weekend, and the Hang Seng is 0.39% lower with its technology sub-index down 1.54%.

The IMF Annual Meetings and the G20 finance ministers and central bank governors meeting will also take place next week.

Even then, a break above 160 is likely to prove difficult.

Katayama subsequently said the government would seek to fund measures including the consumption tax cut without relying on deficit -financing bonds, through a thorough review of special tax measures, government funds and other spending, and that this would be reflected in the FY27 budget process.

Ahead of next week's G20 meeting, the People's Bank of China issued a statement setting out its policy stance on the renminbi exchange rate, pushing back against criticism that China is deliberately weakening its currency.

It’s now classified as “very strong”, with a 75% probability that the October-December episode will be the most intense since 1950.

Forecasts at the start of 2022 also failed to anticipate the scale of the shock.

Poland and Hungary are projected to run deficits this year equal to those recorded in 2020, while the Czech Republic has just raised its deficit target for next year.

• Strong results could help restore confidence in the AI trade, but with expectations already elevated, investors will be looking for evidence that earnings growth can continue into 2027.

TSMC has already reported Q3 revenue of NT$1.49 trillion, up around 51% year-on-year and above its previous guidance.

ASML expects to produce approximately 65 low-NA extreme ultraviolet (EUV) machines in 2026 and plans to increase capacity by 30% to around 85 units in 2027.

TSMC has already delivered impressive revenue growth, but investors will want to know whether momentum can continue into 2027.

TSMC's gross margin guidance of 65–67% will be another key test, particularly as overseas manufacturing expansion adds costs.

For both companies, the outlook for 2027 could matter more than the headline Q3 numbers.

Bullish scenario: Higher EUV capacity targets from ASML, stronger pricing power and an upbeat 2027 outlook from TSMC could provide the reassurance investors are looking for.

Bearish scenario: Unchanged or cautious capacity guidance, softer margins or signs that chipmakers are slowing expansion plans could disappoint investors, even if Q3 results are strong.

Generally, we see fewer indirect effects from energy and fuel prices than in 2022-2023, though.

VIX 15.21, 20-day realised volatility 9.46% and stable, the index 1.35% above its 50-day average.

Option-implied expected move for each company’s report day against the average move after its last eight reports, with implied-volatility rank and the last close, as of 13 October 2026.

• Of the four reporting this morning, Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan price in line with their histories, Citigroup below at 3.4% against 4.0%, and Wells Fargo carries the highest rank at 44.

• Tail risk signal: SKEW at 155.06 sits in the upper part of its recent range, so the cost of far downside protection has not followed the front of the curve lower.

The level of optimism has been higher at certain points over the last 20 years, but it has also been much lower.

On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, industrial activity increased 0.6%; mining fell 1.8%; utilities rose 1.2%; construction was unchanged; and manufacturing increased 1.2%.

Measures of borrower distress remained near recent highs at the end of the second quarter, suggesting that the consequences of aggressive underwriting have yet to fully work through the system (see Figure 2).

Dispersion in marks across managers remains elevated, with loans owned by multiple BDCs often carrying valuation differences of roughly six points (see Figure 4; this estimate is a weighted average across the public and private BDCs shown in the figure).

These constraints make true secondary market liquidity a much higher bar than is often assumed (for more, see our 11 May 2026 commentary, “Daily Pricing Is Not Daily Liquidity”).