观点

The stakes are particularly high in healthcare and construction, where demographic pressures, retirements, and growing labour demand are expected to intensify worker shortages over the coming decade.

Additional progress will require governments to further streamline applications, harmonize occupational standards, and build on reforms such as Ontario’s as-of-right certification model, which allows many workers to begin working while registration is finalized.

Healthcare stands to benefit considerably. Canada’s aging population is expected to increase demand for healthcare services while simultaneously raising retirement rates of healthcare workers.

Quebec’s construction sector, for example, operates under a distinct regulatory framework. As a result, a certified tradesperson may have their credential recognized and still face additional training requirements before beginning work.

Geography, housing costs, employment opportunities, personal circumstances, and social ties all shape whether people relocate.

In short, today's above-target inflation is arithmetically a profit-share story, not a labor-cost story.

labor’s share of income has fallen to the lowest level in the series since 1947. The mirror image shows up in profits: After-tax corporate profit margins as a percentage of gross value added were at their highest level in over 80 years of data

Q2 GDP growth of 3.3% surpassed the BoC’s 2.8% projection and Q1 was revised up by 0.4 ppts for a net beat to their expectations of nearly a percentage point.

Our assessment at this point is that the inflationary impact of the retaliatory tariffs is modest.

We see merit in reviewing currency allocations versus longer-term spending and investment needs, rebalancing away from excess US dollar exposure, and potentially using structured strategies to diversify or harness pockets of volatility to generate yield.

Looking across the country, the lift in planned building work continues to be heavily centred on Auckland (where consent numbers are up 20% over the past year) and Canterbury (up 33%).

However, we remain cautious about how far building activity will rise and how enduring the upswing will be. While consent levels are elevated, the number of new projects being approved each month has been flattening off since May. In addition, we’re hearing increasing concerns about increasing build costs and rising interest rates, along with continued softness in the housing market. We’re also seen continued low levels of population growth, and a large increase in the number of available homes over the past few years. That combination of factors signals some increasing headwinds for the residential construction sector over the coming year.

While the amount of industrial / storage space in the works has been more resilient, the amount of new office space in development has been easing back and retail space in development remains low.

With sluggish economic conditions and ongoing uncertainty about the economic outlook, developers and occupiers are likely to remain cautious about committing to major capital expenditure in the near term.

The federal government’s net debt burden—a declining ratio was the prior governments’ most recent fiscal anchor—is set to increase to a peak of 43.3% in 2027-28 and 2028-29 before inching barely downward in 2029-30.

This leads to the operating budget balance improving to -0.3% of GDP next year and becoming positive from 2028-29, meeting the other stated fiscal anchor of balancing the operating balance within three years.

Budget 2025 lifts that trajectory to about 1.7% of GDP by the outer years of the forecast period.

Banks that integrate these capabilities into their ecosystems will be better-positioned to meet client expectations and grow their business.

Citi ® Token Services Leverages blockchain and distributed ledger technology, facilitates cross-border payments in as little as 90 seconds.

In some markets, digital wallets have become the default choice for consumers – making it critical for banks to offer these solutions to remain competitive.

API FX compatibility with both Swift MX and API initiated payments Citi has invested in its API services by enabling its clients to access live and competitive FX rates via API

Adopting real-time payment solutions with flexible connectivity options can help banks digitally transform their payment ecosystems.

Citi’s Global Beneficiary Services offers greater transparency and self-service by enabling beneficiaries to receive real-time updates on their payments

Citi Token Services with 24/7 USD Clearing: Citi has integrated Citi Token Services and 24/7 USD Clearing which grants our clients access to a true multi-bank network for real-time payments.

In some markets, digital wallets have become the default choice for consumers – making it critical for banks to offer these solutions to remain competitive.

By 2026, it is projected that over 60% of the global population will be using digital wallets.

supporting payments to digital wallets is not just a likely value add: it is a crucial part of operating locally.

by paying in near real-time and to a contractor’s wallet, companies operating in the gig economy can bolster independent contractors’ loyalty and improve their competitive edge.

The widespread prevalence of wallets in many countries means that it is essential to offer them as part of customer collections methods in order to help drive sales by improving payment acceptance and enhancing access to unbanked customer bases.

Recent developments indicate a move towards even greater interoperability, with cross-border interoperability introduced in some markets. For example, the instant payments scheme in Singapore has established connectivity to schemes in India, Malaysia and Thailand.

The rapid adoption of digital wallets is fuelled by speed (near instant payment), extended availability (near 24/7), simplified formatting, full-value delivery, transparency, and trackability compared to traditional cross-border payments.

essential to offer them as part of customer collections methods in order to help drive sales by improving payment acceptance and enhancing access to unbanked customer bases.

Incorporating payments to wallets as a payment endpoint can help companies further digitize payments and can also enable a better beneficiary experience.

The riskiest scenario at present is not that of structurally higher inflation, but rather a rise in the term premium resulting from the normalisation of central bank balance sheets and an increase in the supply of government debt.

history shows that investors who stick to their plan and have a portfolio based on their capacity and tolerance for risk tend to have better wealth outcomes over time.

There are charts galore demonstrating that downturns are normal—from the Great Depression to the dot.com crash to 2008 and beyond—and so are the rebounds and recoveries.

When you need your money has nothing to do with election cycles or climate disasters. It has everything to do with your own personal expenses and goals.

Plus, it can be a good idea to have an emergency fund in place for those unexpected occurrences like a job loss or illness.

You can't control market volatility, but you can control what you save, what you spend, your asset allocation, your investment costs, and your tax situation.

With money you won't need in the next three years, maybe you can tolerate more volatility.

They may say bad news sells, but it also creates heightened emotions and fear for the future. And that's the last thing you want to be driving your financial decisions.

There appears to be more upside than downside with long-term Treasury yields, given the hawkish Fed, strong nominal growth, inflation uncertainty, and lingering fiscal concerns,

He noted that the Treasury's buybacks of long-term government debt remain small relative to the roughly $32 trillion Treasury market.

And any Fed rate hikes appear more likely to be modest adjustments to get the disinflationary process back on track rather than the start of an aggressive hiking cycle,

Higher Treasury yields can create headwinds for equity markets and the broader economy. Rising borrowing costs tend to weigh on consumer spending and business investment, while more attractive yields on relatively safe government debt can pull capital away from stocks.

We expect many Treasury yields to hold in this elevated range for the near term, so investors likely won't miss the opportunity,

A massive wave of corporate borrowing to fund AI infrastructure has also added fuel to the fire by potentially pulling capital away from Treasuries.

Martin said that even using funds from the TGA may not be enough to meaningfully restrain yields, and more aggressive intervention could backfire by undermining confidence in the Treasury market, potentially sending yields even higher.

The near-term bias is likely to stay defensive unless crude or yields stabilize.

Broadcom (AVGO) earnings this afternoon could be a barometer for the chip industry and a possible gut check on Nvidia's (NVDA) recent solid results.