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On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, industrial activity increased 0.6%; mining fell 1.8%; utilities rose 1.2%; construction was unchanged; and manufacturing increased 1.2%.
Measures of borrower distress remained near recent highs at the end of the second quarter, suggesting that the consequences of aggressive underwriting have yet to fully work through the system (see Figure 2).
Dispersion in marks across managers remains elevated, with loans owned by multiple BDCs often carrying valuation differences of roughly six points (see Figure 4; this estimate is a weighted average across the public and private BDCs shown in the figure).
These constraints make true secondary market liquidity a much higher bar than is often assumed (for more, see our 11 May 2026 commentary, “Daily Pricing Is Not Daily Liquidity”).
Return to content 2 KBRA DLD Research Insights & Outlook, Private U.S. Sponsored Deals Analysis August 2026, published 10 September 2026.
The government is due to submit its consumption tax cut bill on October 9 (Fri).
The Bank of Japan has three bond-buying operations scheduled on October 16 where it will target JGBs coming due in 3-5 years (JPY290 billion), 10-25 years (JPY85 billion), and >25 years (JPY75 billion).
In BoJ-related news, the Opinion Survey on the General Public’s Views and Behavior will be released on October 13.
The next day, the Financial Markets Department will hold a Meeting on Market Operations to discuss 1) recent financial market developments and the conduct of market operations, 2) JGB market liquidity and market functioning, and 3) developments in Japan’s money market.
The broad growth outlook remains intact, with the U.S. economy expected to expand at a moderate pace and Canadian growth accelerating in 2027.
The BoC should also withdraw stimulus and move into restrictive territory, raising its policy rate to 3.25% in 2027.
d to Contributors Olivier Gervais Director, Modelling and Forecasting Scotiabank Economics 416.288.7836 olivier.gervais@scotiabank.com Patrick Perrier Director of Forecasting Scotiabank Economics 416.866.4733 patrick.perrier@scotiabank.com Farah Omran Senior Economist Scotiabank Economics 416.866.4315 farah.omran@scotiabank.com GLOBAL ECONOMICS SCOTIABANK FORECAST October 13, 2026 SCOTIABANK FORECAST October 13, 2026 Global Economics 2 Canadian activity has also evolved broadly in line with our expectations.
1 Financial conditions have tightened more quickly and sharply than we expected, particularly in the U.S. (chart 1) .
For example, we estimate that the effect on food prices will peak roughly 18 months after the initial shock.
Systemic Infrastructure Moves to Production Regulatory Clarity Is Catching Up On-Chain Money Has Arrived 1 32 Tokenization 2030: A Base Case of $5.5 Trillion Projected global tokenized financial asset market by 2030, across public and private markets $2.7T $8.2T $5.5T Source: Citi Institute, Tokenization 2030 — Wall Street On-Chain (June 2026).
And I know we'll come back to this later on, but it looks like 2027 will be another strong year for earnings growth as well.
David Groman (2:39) Yeah, so it's also a key question, and relates right back to what we were talking about on rates, as the longer the geopolitical risks remain in place, the higher risk that we'll see stagflationary pressures reasserting themselves as well.
But of course, that means they still see around a 30% chance of a bear case where disruption drags into next year.
Beata Manthey (5:45) Citi economists see the "global resilience" narrative as firmly intact.
Consensus now sees +35% EPS growth for the MSCI AC World Index this year — it has been revised up about 20 percentage points year to date, largely on Tech and Energy, but decelerating to still-solid double digit +16% growth next year.
And our Earnings Revision Index has been in net-upgrade territory for 23 straight weeks; that’s the longest run since the post-COVID recovery.
David Groman (6:57) Pulling it all together: macro holding up, earnings still delivering, and three big headwinds out there that the market may be able to digest even though there are questions around that.
Figure 2: October 2026 Directional Outlook Note: All individual currency views in the table above are relative to the G-10 average.
Swaps markets are still pricing rates cuts over the next year with nearly 160bps of easing priced in though with much of that easing priced in later in the period.
Market Thoughts ▪ Base-case: Rounding will be a key driver of market reaction, with a 0.24% unrounded core feeling very different from a 0.15%.
An initial rally is expected, led by the 2yr, but the composition will determine if it extends well past 8:30 or if it fades (widespread vs narrow set of items).
Price growth is expected to normalize closer to 0% MoM in those relevant categories in September.
A normalization in September is expected, with both item categories growing at or near 0% for the month.
▪ Given our, and consensus, expectations of 0.2% MoM for core, market reaction will depend heavily on the composition and rounding (0.15-0.24).
1 2 3 4 5 6 The Global Competition for Capital / OCT 2026 / page 10 Sizing Total Investable Capital2 The Global Competition for Capital / OCT 2026 / page 11 The $126 Trillion Global Economy Source: International Monetary Fund, “World Economic Outlook – April 2026” Data is for 2026.
Wall Street full year 2026 forecasts are in the $1.4 tn range.
5 The Global Competition for Capital / OCT 2026 / page 39 $32.4 $20.9 $10.3 $5.5 $4.4 $4.3 $4.2 US China Germany Japan UK India AI Capex Demands Larger than Most Economies For context, Brookings Institution's AI capex forecasts over the next eight years (2032) are larger than the GDP of every global economy, except the US and China.
GDP is IMF World Economic Outlook (April 2026).
Average annual infrastructure spending as a percentage of GDP Telecom & Fiber (1996-2003) Projected Big Tech AI Capex (2025-32) Highways (1956-73) Electrification (1905-25) 3.6% 2.2% 1.1% 1.1% 0.7% 0.5% Railroads (1870-90) Canals (1836-41) The Global Competition for Capital / OCT 2026 / page 41 Leadership in Global AI Capex Spend Source: (1) IDC.
2027-29 forecasts based on Wall Street analyst estimates.
Gross debt to GDP by sector (2026) The Global Competition for Capital / OCT 2026 / page 63 US Debt to Reach 175% of GDP in 2056 Over the six years since COVID began, US Government debt/GDP increased from approximately 75% to over 100% today, a milestone previously not expected to be reached for a decade.
OECD, “OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2026 Issue 1”.
0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 2015 2020 2025 2030 Net interest expenditure on government debt, % of GDP Forecast US EM Eurozone Japan 3.8% 2.4% 1.7% 0.3% 1.5% 2.2% 2.5% 4.2% Regime Shift to Higher Risk-Free Rate B.
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