完美的通胀风暴是否正重返中东欧地区？

关键论点

• 美国-伊朗冲突如今类似2022年的完美风暴，能源、食品及创纪录运费全面上涨。
• 核心通胀保持稳定，因能源和食品成本传导需要时间，且食品价格疲软掩盖了冲击。
• 基数效应消退与1月消费者价格重置可能暴露中东欧更广泛的通胀压力。
• 预计央行将比2022年更快收紧政策，同时财政支持和家庭储蓄维持消费。

对应原文证据

1. Weak food prices have delayed inflation, but fading base effects and January resets may expose broader pressures, prompting faster central bank tightening and renewed fiscal intervention if inflation surprises to the upside Pass-through takes time When the US-Iran conflict began in March, we argued that conditions differed from 2022 and that a comparable inflation surge was unlikely. · 2022
2. Core inflation remained stable, suggesting that significant second-round effects have yet to emerge in consumer prices, a pattern also seen elsewhere in Europe.
3. It’s now classified as “very strong”, with a 75% probability that the October-December episode will be the most intense since 1950.