观点

Some tightening of financing conditions can ease the ECB’s job; too much tightening, and unequal tightening, would bring new problems.

But, the government has provided very long term projections showing a declining ratio (under a reasonable set of economic assumptions) expected to turn downward by the mid-2030s.

rather than competing with or replacing digital wallets, recent developments demonstrate that these schemes are being built to accommodate digital wallets through interoperability – indicating that digital wallets will continue to play an important role in the payments ecosystem.

This is true in markets such as Argentina, Hong Kong and Singapore. In other markets, scheme operators and regulators have deployed national payment switches which link the instant payments scheme to the domestic wallet ecosystem.

Emerging markets have experienced especially swift growth in digital wallet use. The more limited reach of traditional banking services and material unbanked populations in some of these markets has helped propel their adoption.

Foundational improvements in market structure and policy frameworks have strengthened emerging markets’ (EM) resilience to external shocks.

Our forecasts for end of 2026 stands at 1.18 in EUR/USD

Our forecasts for end of 2026 stands at 1.18 in EUR/USD and 150 USD/JPY.

When the Schwab Center for Financial Research looked at annual returns of the S&P 500 Index from 1960 to 2023, it was found that the average return in presidential election years was 7.3%, and the average return during non-election years was 8.8%, which is not statistically significant and can't necessarily be attributed to the fact there was an election.

Simply put, elections likely don't matter to your portfolio long-term.

WTI Crude Oil (/CL) Futures are higher by $0.73 to $90.95/barrel.

If agreed to, this could bring a degree of confidence over supply through the Strait, particularly if the US remains focused on applying economic pressure.

Its advantage sits closer to the customer. Apple controls the phone, operating system, headphones, watch and computer around them. If AI models become increasingly interchangeable, Apple can let others spend heavily building the engines while it controls the dashboard.

Ternus must protect the ecosystem, allocate enormous cash flows sensibly and avoid expensive distractions. A great moat gives management room to make mistakes. It does not make those mistakes free.

None needs to become the next iPhone to create value. A foldable phone can encourage upgrades. A home device can extend Apple’s ecosystem into another room. Smarter AirPods can make the iPhone more useful without replacing it.

Listed crypto took the brunt of the risk-off session while the coins held up better.

Higher yields also matter because they raise the discount rate used to value future earnings, putting pressure on equity multiples — especially for companies whose profits sit further into the future.

Commodity producers can benefit when higher rates are being driven by stronger nominal growth, inflation, supply constraints or geopolitical risks.

The US 3-2-1 crack spread has reached USD 63 per barrel, while even stronger European margins reflect diesel above USD 200 per barrel and expensive natural gas.

EU gas is trading near USD 142 per barrel of oil equivalent, more than USD 45 above Brent and around eight times the prevailing US natural gas price.

The Magnificent Seven are spending vast sums today to support earnings expected tomorrow. The Energy Seven are harvesting exceptional cash flow today from scarcity, elevated prices and infrastructure that already exists.

AI remains a powerful structural growth theme. However, its expanding requirement for electricity, natural gas, backup generation and grid infrastructure means some of its most immediate profits are accruing not only to those developing the technology, but also to those supplying the molecules and electrons needed to run it.

WTI crude surged 5.2% to USD90.22/bbl, while Brent jumped 4.6% to USD94.65/bbl. The selloff in global bonds was equally striking: Japan’s 10 -year government bond yield reached 3.0% for the first time since 1996

Nevertheless, with headline inflation back above 3%, a sustained rise in energy prices would increase pressure on the ECB to respond.

Overall, we view the development as mildly negative for near-term credit metrics but supportive of longer-term pipeline visibility and geographic rebalancing.

Japan’s 10 -year government bond yield reached 3.0% for the first time since 1996

Tencent Music Entertainment Group may issue USD-denominated 5Y and/or 10Y bonds.

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent also signaled that additional sanctions targeting Iranian banks could be announced this week.

we expect the ECB’s growth and inflation forecasts to be revised upwards slightly, mainly due to earlier statistical upward revisions of first-quarter growth and slightly higher oil prices.

But if debt sustainability concerns grow, possibly ahead of next year's French presidential elections, markets might want to test the ECB.

the possibility of an early exit for Christine Lagarde as ECB president and the question of who would be her successor. Some of the names of possible candidates currently circulating have, at least in the past, not been strong supporters of quantitative easing.

Prefunding should ultimately reduce these increases, but the draft budget is clearly negative for the CZGB market.

On the positive side, the Ministry of Finance has gained a new funding source through retail bonds and is likely to rely on it more as borrowing needs rise.

Assuming no switches or budget changes, gross CZGB issuance would rise 28% year-on-year and net issuance 19%.

Brent pushed back above $95/bbl, reaching its highest level in more than a month, as Persian Gulf tensions escalated further.

TTF gas prices traded to their highest level since 2023, with front-month futures breaking above EUR75/MWh in early morning trading today.

CBOT soybean futures climbed to their highest level since December 2023, supported by a stronger-than-expected US renewable fuel exemption decision that improved the biofuel demand outlook.

We favour DXY grinding higher to the 100.10/20 area and probably moving a little higher tomorrow on the Waller event.

Below 1.1565/70, EUR/USD can extend its drop to the 1.1520 area and we think something like 1.15 looks an appropriate target for month-end.

For USD/JPY, the hawkish Fed is a game-changer and suggests USD/JPY can spend much more time in this 160/162 area.

Paired with our bullish call on USD, we see USD/CAD upside risks extending to 1.400 this month.

We assume gradual interest rate hikes in 2027 but conditional on the Canadian economic backdrop continuing to improve.

monetary policy cannot offset the effects of tariffs or influence global energy prices.

Fiscal policy is objectively a more effective policy tool to address targeted economic impacts from tariffs than blanket BoC interest rate changes

there would be room for the BoC to respond were those shocks to spread across additional sectors/products to impact broader inflation trends.

higher energy costs could spread to increase costs for a wider array of consumer goods and services, and those risks grow the longer energy prices remain elevated

We remain cautiously optimistic that the Canadian economy will continue to gradually improve and the unemployment rate will drift gradually lower.

increased trade uncertainty could weigh broadly on consumer and business spending in a way that would increase slack in the economy and cause underlying inflationary pressures to ease (arguing for lower interest rates for longer).

Canadian consumers and businesses have shown signs of adapting to life under increased trade uncertainty — business investment strengthened in Q2 and consumer spending has remained resilient.

Canada has made significant progress in reducing interprovincial labour mobility barriers through initiatives such as the Red Seal program and CFTA, making it easier for qualified workers to move across provincial borders.