观点

This creates a risk, as higher rates are likely to weigh on residential investment in 2027, but so far, companies are signaling that capital expenditure plans should continue.

In our latest macroeconomic forecast update, we expect the current account deficit to reach 1.5% of GDP this year and widen further to 1.9% of GDP in 2027, compared with 1.0% of GDP in 2025.

We'd suggested we saw slight upside risk to the core figure with the details showing the largest component by weight, shelter, coming in hotter at 0.4% month-on-month after three consecutive softer prints, averaging 0.2% MoM.

Wages are currently running at just 3%, with the risk that we see a further slowdown coming through.

4.5 0.4 1.600 0.07 0.01 2.7 0.7 2.7 2.4 0.6 3.3 Personal care services 3.7 0.4 0.668 0.02 0.00 2.3 0.7 2.0 1.8 0.8 2.3 Miscellaneous personal services 5.1 0.3 0.932 0.05 0.00 2.9 0.9 2.4 2.7 0.7 3.3 *Number may not add due to rounding Sources: Scotiabank Economics, BLS.

Our estimate of core retail sales, excluding gasoline and autos, rose 0.4% on a three-month average, down slightly from 0.6% in August.

While SOFI posted record growth and profitability in the second quarter, with revenues rising 43% from a year ago and adjusted EBITDA jumping 43% over the same period, guidance spooked some investors.

Management also slashed its full-year 2026 guidance in its second-quarter report, forecasting a 5% to 7% revenue decline.

By embracing standardization, the $2.5 trillion 1 APAC ETF industry will be well-positioned for future growth.

In addition to enabling APs to realize operational synergies, the FIX Protocol will also help the ETF industry navigate fast- moving digitalization trends and the global rollout of T+1.

2024 2025 2025 - 2026 Citi announces it will integrate FIX Application Programming Interface (API) connectivity onto its proprietary global ETF order portal, Advanced Citi ETF System (ACES), creating a simplified order management and onboarding process.

Standardization of the ETF primary market operating model will help users improve market timing, and with it enable them to avoid penalties for late settlements under T+1.

History provides Democrats with a powerful tailwind, as the president's party has lost House seats in 20 of the past 22 midterms and Senate seats in 15 out of 22 since 1938.

-56 -28 -18 -48 -4 -47 -12 -48 -15 -26 -5 -8 -54 +4 +8 -30 -63 -13 -41 -9 -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 1946 1962 1978 1994 2010 2026 House seat changes at midterms Seats Source: American Presidency Project, OCBC Group Research.

-12 -6 -1 -13 +3 -4 +2 -5 -3 +1 -8 -1 -8 0 +2 -6 -6 -9 +2 +1 -15 -10 -5 0 5 1946 1962 1978 1994 2010 2022 Seats Senate seat changes at midterms Source: American Presidency Project, OCBC Group Research.

Congress Political implications Economic implications Democratic House + Democratic Senate (62% implied probability) Democrats could push ahead on Iran and healthcare in both chambers, but Trump could still veto any bill they pass.

Republican House + Democratic Senate (1% implied probability) Republicans could pass Trump’s proposals in the House, but would need Senate Democrats to agree.

The move affected more than 760,000 individuals but is expected to save the government roughly USD2.2bn in tax-credit payments.

Enacted under the Working Families Tax Cut Legislation, this law requires non-disabled adults aged 19 –64 to log 80 hours a month of work, education, or community service to retain their health insurance.

Policymakers may push for developers 5.3 1.1 0.7 0.4 0 2 4 6 Work rules Provider tax limits 6-month checks Enrolment rule freeze 7.5m people to be uninsured if Repulicans pass Medicaid changes Changes proposed by the Republicans Million people Source: CBO, OCBC Group Research.

However, how much influence Democrats ultimately wield will depend on what the current Congress can complete before leaving office on 3 January 2027.

We helped our customers buy more than 150,000 homes and provided $17 billion in finance for new housing supply.

In September, we also maintained our #1 position among the majors in Business and Institutional NPS.

We're also investing $140 million this year to upgrade our branch network.

We remain on track for 12 of our 15 sector-level financed emissions goals and targets.

Having achieved our 2025 operational emissions targets, we set a new 2030 target to reduce our Scope 1 and 2 operational emissions by 75% against a 2020 baseline.

Following a relatively steady expansion between 2015 and 2019, exports plummeted in the spring of 2020 due to the Covid-19 pandemic and disruptions to global trade.

The recovery that began in 2021 was equally pronounced, driven in particular by significant base effects, before momentum gradually moderated from 2023 onward.

In value terms 1 ,Spain, Italy, and Portugal have recorded stronger export growth relative to their 2019 levels since the pandemic than France and Germany.

However, monthly data (on a12-month moving average basis) show that export growth has become much more uneven since 2023 (Chart 2).Following the extreme volatility recorded during the pandemic and the subsequent recovery, year-on-year growth rates have returned to more moderate levels, alternating between expansion and contraction depending on the country.

Chart 1:Goods exports, value terms, 2019 index =100, 12-month moving average Chart 2:Monthly goods export growth, value terms, YoY 12-month moving average Source: Eurostat, Natixis CIB Research Source: Eurostat, Natixis CIB Research These diverging trajectories may notably reflect distinct export structures and, consequently, differing levels of exposure to sectoral shocks and shifts in global demand.

Chemical products hold aparticularly large share in French exports (19.3%), whereas Italy combines ahigh exposure to machinery and transport equipment (32.3%) with a significant contribution from other manufactured goods (16.8%).

Following the widespread collapse of 2020, the recovery in 2021 and especially in 2022 was highly synchronized, but its sectoral composition varied across economies.

Portugal presents yet another configuration: after benefiting extensively from the broad-based recovery of 2021 –2022, its recent performance has been characterized by positive contributions from machinery and chemicals, which were partially offset in 2025 by adecline in fuels and certain manufactured goods.

In Germany, however, their contribution has weakened significantly since 2023 and remained limited in 2025.

Germany maintains a relatively stable structure, characterized by a substantial share of intermediate goods (46%) and consumer goods (28%), which is consistent with its positioning within industrial value chains.

In Italy, the expansion of consumer goods (+3.8 percentage points) was accompanied by adecline in the share of intermediate goods (-4.1 percentage points), although the latter still account for the largest share of Italian exports (43%).

Following the broad-based collapse in 2020, intermediate goods emerged as one of the primary drivers of the 2021 –2022 recovery, particularly in Portugal, but also in Spain and Italy.

1 Asia FX Talk │13 October 2026 Asia FX Talk RBI’s INR measures may help spot FX, but for how long?

All these pressures have also come despite the substantial US$140bn FCNR(B) inflows after the June 2026 measures from RBI (see India: Too much of a good thing ).

Expansion beyond this would take more time, possibly as much as 3 years.

In the energy sector, Vena Energy outlined plans to invest PHP52bn over the next two years in renewable energy projects, targeting up to 1.29 gigawatts of additional power generation capacity in line with the government’s renewable energy targets of 35% by 2030 and 50% by 2040.