观点

The report revealed that both headline and core inflation picked up by more than expected to 3.7% and 2.6% respectively in September.

The report has raised market expectations for core PCE deflator to increase by around 0.3- 0.4%M/M in September.

Core inflation is projected to remain slightly above 2% through 1H 2027 before easing thereafter.

Overall, Peru emerges as the most exposed economy across Latin America combining direct Pacific coastal exposure with heavy dependence on exposed industries (notably fishing and agriculture), while Colombia is also highly exposed with drought affecting both agricultural output and energy production, and its hydropower dependence is likely to turn the climate shock into energy and food inflation.

Inflation has already surged this year amid the Iran war, therefore El Niño could have compounding effects on economies.

For instance, inArgentina, this means that annual inflation will be 0.41 percentage points higher due toElNiño.

1.38 Strong coastal episodes raise headline and core inflation; severe events lift expectations (BIS WP 1276).

14 October 2026 US M ACRO S NAPSHOT September CPI Recap: Hotter print --> Live October Meeting Inflation for September was hotter than anticipated and broad-based, which will stoke concerns that the lull inprice pressures over the summer was just ablip.

Overall, Chinese inflation remains relatively under control compared to global peers Source: Shutterstock 5.0% YoY China's September PPI inflation Highest since 2022 Higher than expected CPI inflation edges up overall amid offsetting factors China’s CPI inflation rose 0.9% year-on-year in September, up slightly from 0.8% in August, and broadly in line with forecasts (market: 1.0%, ING: 1.0%).

This component looks likely to remain a drag on overall inflation, as housing prices have yet to confirm a bottom.

Overall, inflation remains comfortably below the 2% target set at this year's Two Sessions.

Energy and tech prices are driving China's reflation PPI inflation hits the highest level since 2022 PPI inflation rose sharply to 5.0% YoY in September, up from 3.8% in August, and comfortably beating forecasts (market: 4.4%, ING: 4.3%).

The inflation backdrop doesn’t appear to be as bad as might have been expected when the conflict first started and if an assumption had been made that it would still be impacting energy supplies by the following October.

It’s only the third time since the retracement back lower after the global inflation shock that the 3mth annualised core PCE rate has fallen back to target.

MAS lowered its 2026 core inflation forecast to 1.5-2.0%, from 1.5-2.5% previously projected at its July policy review, while noting that headline inflation is likely to average around 2%.

Enhanced government subsidies for healthcare and education are also expected to keep services inflation subdued in 2027.

While the inflation outlook has improved, we do not believe risks have disappeared.

Domestic inflation could prove stickier if spillovers from the AI-driven investment cycle become broader-based, boosting demand and pushing unit labour costs higher than currently anticipated.

As such, we continue to see the balance of risks to inflation as modestly tilted to the upside.

The combination of resilient growth, a positive output gap, and lingering upside inflation risks suggests that MAS is likely not done with tightening, and tightening in Jan is likely if the risks to inflation materialise.

Growth remains robust, with GDP expected to expand by more than 5% in 2H, while core inflation is likely to re-accelerate in 4Q, keeping concerns about underlying price pressures alive.

Headline inflation is expected at 3.6% against 3.4%, core at 2.5% against 2.4%, with the monthly headline rate seen at 0.6%.

Yield curves begin to show relief over 2027 as we forecast a bending of the AI curve and hyperscaler issuance, ongoing pressures from government debt issuance, ebbing inflation risk, cooler US growth and upside risk to our Canadian forecasts for growth and inflation.

Macklem’s appearance will disappoint anyone expecting any updated remarks since the hawkish September 2 nd press conference and his September 21 st presser when he sounded hawkish on inflation, dovish on Q4 GDP growth and skipped right over Q3 resilience.

Canadian core inflation measures were quite warm on September 14 th .Or consider GDP that’s tracking 2% in Q3 after the August 0.2% m/m ‘flash’ estimate last month.

Macklem won’t reveal the results this week, but he will probably also have in his head the outcome of the latest Q3 business and consumer surveys that will probably follow the CFIB measure of inflation expectations higher.

US CPI ––A MERE PLACEHOLDER Scotia’s house estimates for US CPI in September (8:30amET) are 0.6% m/m for total CPI (0.6% consensus) and 0.3% m/m for core CPI (0.2% consensus).

In terms of the outlook for inflation, much hinges on what happens with the Strait of Hormuz.

In any case, the cooling housing market should translate into softer shelter inflation prints, while a less onerous tariff regime should also help.

US Rates Strategy Daily October 14, 2026 Troy Ludtka, US Economics troy.ludtka@smbcnikko-si.com 1 212-224-5483 Key Inflation Headwind Fades September Core CPI surprised to the upside, printing at 0.33% m/m (consensus expectation: 0.2%).

Even though the base effects for energy costs will begin in March and tariffs have largely been passed through into prices, the loss of shelter-driven disinflation, at least temporarily, suggests that inflationary pressures are likely to remain elevated in the near-term outlook.

The results raised the year-over-year rates to 3.7% (3.4% previously) and 2.6% y/y (2.4% prior) for total CPI and core CPI respectively.

Looking ahead, growth is slowing and inflation remains too high, and it will take time for higher interest rates to bring inflation back into the target range.

In Europe, Germany will release its final September CPI figures, while ECB officials Elderson and Lane, along with the B oE’s Dhingra, are scheduled to speak.

The Reserve Bank of Australia believed it could be costly to wait for more evidence that inflation pressures were building before raising interest rates in September, minutes from its latest meeting show.

Inflation remained too high, while the board saw growing evidence that domestic capacity pressures may be greater than previously thought.

July inflation data was stronger than expected, GDP growth had been slightly stronger, and businesses continued to report widespread cost pressures.