观点

The board said it would continue to do what was necessary to achieve its inflation and employment goals, “including increasing the cash rate target further if required”.

Board discussions were heavily weighted towards inflation and upside risks to the outlook, while giving relatively little attention to downside risks to growth, Allen said.

Allen said the RBA had seen inflation risks grow on three fronts: the escalation of the Middle East conflict and higher commodity prices, demand from the AI data centre build-out and evidence that domestic capacity pressures may be greater than previously thought.

The board’s assessment that July’s inflation surprise was more likely to reflect domestic capacity pressures than stronger-than-expected pass-through from the Middle East conflict was “a clear signal that the board is still worried about domestically driven inflation pressure”, Allen said.

The board also believed waiting for more confirmation could be costly, because inflation had already been above target for an extended period, the minutes revealed.

The Board was also concerned that medium-term inflation expectations among businesses could be starting to rise.

• Japan’s producer prices rose 6.8% year-on-year in September 2026, the weakest since May and below the expected 7.6%, signaling easing but still high inflation.

• Australia’s RBA minutes say it lifted the cash rate to 4.6% two weeks ago as upside inflation risks materialized and delays could be costly, noting the Middle East conflict will heavily shape the outlook and that it stands ready to raise rates further if needed.

Weak food prices have delayed inflation, but fading base effects and January resets may expose broader pressures, prompting faster central bank tightening and renewed fiscal intervention if inflation surprises to the upside Pass-through takes time When the US-Iran conflict began in March, we argued that conditions differed from 2022 and that a comparable inflation surge was unlikely.

Core inflation remained stable, suggesting that significant second-round effects have yet to emerge in consumer prices, a pattern also seen elsewhere in Europe.

September food inflation figures point to a shift in parts of Europe and CEE, even though headline rates still look stable.

Our economists have already revised inflation forecasts upwards several times.

Eight months later, however, it’s difficult to believe that inflation will remain unaffected.

I therefore expect upside inflation surprises in the coming months and would be particularly cautious about January’s CEE releases.

After the trauma of 2022, when CEE inflation reached double digits, central banks are likely to react more quickly.

Such measures may shift the inflation problem from the short end of the curve to the long end, but they do not solve it.

Mobile phones, too, played a role in driving up headline inflation, likely due to higher prices for ICT components from the AI boom.

For headline HICP, we expect inflation to peak in the first quarter of 2027 at around 3.5% to 4%.

Still, a turnaround in inflation is expected, particularly for food, as elevated energy prices and higher prices in international wholesale markets for raw foodstuffs such as grains, oils and fat will eventually translate into higher food prices for the Dutch consumer.

• Tomorrow, and the reason the nine-day measure rose: September consumer price data at 14:30 CET, with headline inflation expected at 3.7% against 3.4%, and ASML, Bank of America and Morgan Stanley reporting.

In our view the week’s question may be whether tomorrow’s inflation print is what makes the components agree again.

US Rates Strategy Daily October 13, 2026 Troy Ludtka, US Economics troy.ludtka@smbcnikko-si.com 1 212-224-5483 Inflation Breadth Follows Wages Lower NFIB data show that 31% of small businesses are raising prices (net), which ostensibly suggests that inflationary pressures are building.

The Bank of Japan’s Opinion Survey on the General Public’s Views and Behavior, due to be released on October 13 (Tue), may show that households’ five-year inflation expectations continue to trend higher.

• Inflation pressures are proving more persistent in both Canada and the U.S., turning the monetary policy outlook more restrictive.

Economic activity continues to hold up broadly as expected, but renewed inflation pressures give little choice for central banks but to tighten monetary policy.

The revisions reinforce the resilience of the expansion but, on their own, have limited implications for our inflation or policy rate outlook.

We interpret this as a reflection of a stronger economy and more acute inflation pressures, which have pushed up short-term rates expectations, alongside heavy demand for capital from the AI build-out.

▪ What to watch out for: Inflation momentum of core goods will broadly be maintained, driven by reimposed tariffs and rising import/energy prices, though deflation of used autos will offset.

Notably, inflation of wireless telephone services should normalize in September after contributing a historically high 0.08% points to last month’s CPI (pushing core CPI growth to 0.3% MoM in August compared to expectations of 0.2% MoM).

Additionally, inflation of lodging away from home (i.e., hotels) should fall, though a slight acceleration in rents and OER will likely offset.

The September PPI will be especially relevant to gauge PCE.

▪ Used auto inflation is expected to fall back into negative territory, contributing 0 to -0.1% points to MoM September CPI, consistent with Manheim Used Vehicle Index which leads CPI growth by ~ 2 months.

1 Asia FX Talk │19 October 2026 Asia FX Talk MSCI downgrade risk adds to IDR headwinds 19 October 2026 Market Highlights The dollar softened after Fed Chair Warsh offered no hawkish steer at the IMF meetings, prompting markets to scale back expectations of another rate hike at the 27- 28 October FOMC meeting.

We therefore maintain our bias for further USD/IDR upside, with our existing forecasts at 18,350 in Q4 2026 and 18,500 in Q1 2027.

Higher Australian interest rates can support the dollar relative to where it would otherwise be, which can lower the Australian-dollar cost of imported goods.

• The dollar weakened on Friday, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index down 0.2%, capping its worst week since early September after Chair Warsh's comments were read as favouring a hold.

The softer dollar coincided with the euro breaking a five-week losing streak and with a broad rally in emerging market currencies and equities.

1 19th October 2026 USD continues to trade at modestly weaker levels at start of the week 19 th October 2026 USD: What’s been driving the correction lower for the US dollar?

The major foreign exchange rates have remained stable overnight with the US dollar continuing to trade at modestly weaker levels following last week’s correction lower.

The dollar index closed lower last week brining an end to four consecutive week of gains that had lifted it to a fresh year-to-date high of 102.95.

The US dollar’s failure to extend its gains last week following the release of stronger US inflation data was disappointing and has likely encouraged some investors to trim long positions accumulated over the past month.

However, this dynamic also leaves the USD more exposed to a reversal if sentiment towards AI deteriorates.

In our earlier update, we cautioned that energy prices, bond yields, and the US dollar would likely move higher before any resolution of the Middle East conflict.