观点

Amazon’s intent to invest USD48 billion between 2026 and 2030 highlights the scale of opportunities created by digital adoption and an evolving business ecosystem.

GIFT City can serve as a strategic gateway for capital flows, enabling companies to centralise cross-border financing, foreign-currency liquidity and treasury operations within India.

Companies that align financing, liquidity and risk management with broader investment strategies will be better positioned to scale sustainably across the corridor.

At the individual currency level, the euro short was cut by 38% after speculators bought a net 22.7k contracts, equivalent to USD 3.3 billion, leaving the net short at USD 5.3 billion.

Going against the broader trend, the yen saw net selling for a second consecutive week, with speculators selling 10.4k contracts and lifting the net short to 63.3k contracts, or around USD 5 billion.

Across the ten major grain and soft commodity futures tracked in this report, the combined managed-money net long has now in the past two weeks surged by 546k contracts, the fastest pace on record, with the total rising above 1.1 million contracts, the highest in more than four years and representing a nominal exposure of more than USD 40 billion.

The buying was led by corn, where funds added a net 126k contracts to lift the net long to 376.5k contracts, the highest in more than four years.

Gold rose 6.2% during the reporting week, while the managed-money net long increased by just 4% to 151.3k contracts, leaving it close to its one-year high.

The weakness extended into today's session after bullion closed back below its 200-day moving average on Friday, currently at USD 4,528, forcing traders to reassess the short-term technical outlook. The next key support is around USD 4,328, the 50% retracement of the August rally.

In energy, funds cut Brent longs by 11% as increased Hormuz flows reduced the Middle East risk premium.

For that reason, positioning extremes can be useful contrarian indicators, but rarely in isolation: timing still depends on a fundamental or technical catalyst that changes the prevailing trend.

The Real Estate sector of the S&P 500, which includes REITs along with real estate management and development companies, has returned 14.66% year-to-date, ahead of the S&P 500's 12.97% return.

Data centers have been among the clearest beneficiaries of the AI investment cycle. As companies continue investing in AI infrastructure, demand for data center space has surged.

Although data center REITs and semiconductors have both been among the year’s strongest performers, their paths have differed considerably. For example, in July semiconductor stocks sold off sharply while data center REITs advanced, and in August technology stocks outperformed as broader REIT returns softened. These divergences helped push correlations lower, highlighting that REIT returns remain influenced by a distinct set of property and market fundamentals.

Custom AI chips are becoming a second growth engine alongside Nvidia’s GPUs, with Broadcom and Marvell competing for Big Tech designs.

Marvell Technology managed exactly that last week. The chip designer raised its longer-term revenue expectations as demand for artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure accelerated. Yet Marvell closed at 216.62 USD on 28 August, down 10.3%, because investors wanted its new Google custom-chip partnership to generate meaningful revenue sooner.

Google recently expanded its relationship with Marvell across custom processors, networking and memory technologies. The agreement could eventually generate up to 120 billion USD of orders through fiscal 2033. Importantly, Google appears to be adding Marvell alongside Broadcom rather than simply replacing Broadcom.

Broadcom, meanwhile, is helping Meta develop its Meta Training and Inference Accelerator (MTIA), with production of the latest generation expected to start in September. It has also developed OpenAI’s first custom inference processor, Jalapeño, which is expected to begin deployment by the end of 2026.

Last quarter, its AI semiconductor revenue reached 10.8 billion USD, up 143% from a year earlier. Management expects roughly 16 billion USD this quarter, representing growth of more than 200%.

Broadcom learned this in June. Revenue grew 48%, but still came slightly below market expectations. Its 16 billion USD AI forecast also fell just short of what analysts had hoped for. The business was booming. The expectation bar was simply higher.

Finally, expectations matter. When investors already assume years of exceptional growth, even small delays can create large share-price reactions without meaning the long-term business has suddenly deteriorated.

we stick to our forecast of 3.4% growth in 2026

The US-Venezuela agreement is strategically significant, in our view. But it is also unlikely to materially alter the oil-market outlook in the near term, for several reasons:

We forecast the Brent crude price at around USD 85 per barrel in December 2026, with upside risks to this view in the near term if the US-Iran conflict were to re-escalate.

We continue to see value in broad commodity exposure as both a potential source of returns and a portfolio diversifier during periods of geopolitical stress and inflation uncertainty.

Within US equities, we maintain a Neutral view on the energy sector. After strong year-to-date performance linked to rising crude prices and strong refining margins, we expect the sector to perform more in line with the broader market.

Within the sector, we favor selective exposure to oilfield services, which should benefit from rising international spending over the next several years.

Today, central bank independence is facing the most dangerous stress test of its history, caught between the anvil of challenging economic circumstances and the hammer of political opportunism.

Across the G7, government debt-to-GDP ratios have surged to heights unseen outside of wartime and are generally on track to keep growing based on current policies

When a central bank is seen as not entirely free to do what is needed to deliver price stability, inflation expectations can become unanchored. Financial markets demand higher risk premiums, bond yields climb, and everyday borrowing costs from thirty-year mortgages to consumer credit and corporate loans rise, slowing down growth.

Surrendering central bank autonomy will not solve structural budget deficits, lower grocery bills, or resolve geopolitical turmoil. It will simply remove a tried and tested institutional speed limit on short-sighted and ill-advised macroeconomic management.

When central banks act to protect price stability under these conditions, it is much harder for them to deliver a painless landing. Raising interest rates does not replace the missing goods; the best it can do is to prevent a wage-price spiral from taking hold.

Headline CPI rose to 2.9% y/y and core CPI to 2.5% y/y, both broadly in line with consensus.

core PCE, the Fed’s preferred gauge, was unchanged at 3.3% y/y (in line with expectations).

expectations of a rate hike on September 16 rose back from a trough of 35% to 55%.

After exerting the largest drag on growth since late 2023, net exports returned to positive territory, ending the negative trend that had persisted since the beginning of 2025. Supported by declining imports, net exports added 0.6ppt to GDP growth.

Elevated single-stock volatility and higher yields in select areas of hyperscaler debt are creating distinct opportunities across equity and fixed income markets.

The first half of 2026 reinforced the importance of balance, selectivity and income generation.

Markets continue to offer attractive opportunities for income generation and selective capital appreciation, according to Franklin Income Investors CIO Ed Perks.

Japan’s growth is underpinned by fiscal expansion and robust private demand.

The removal of Venezuela’s President Nicolás Maduro has materially improved the country’s outlook

The US-Venezuela agreement is strategically significant, in our view. But it is also unlikely to materially alter the oil-market outlook in the near term

Taken together, these constraints suggest that the agreement will not materially affect the balance between crude oil supply and demand in 2026.

Within US equities, we maintain a Neutral view on the energy sector. After strong year-to-date performance linked to rising crude prices and strong refining margins, we expect the sector to perform more in line with the broader market.

Within the sector, we favor selective exposure to oilfield services, which should benefit from rising international spending over the next several years.

However, a sustained monthly core inflation rate closer to 0.3%, or broader second-round effects from earlier supply shocks, would increase the risk of further tightening.

We maintain our Attractive rating on Japanese equities and favor balanced exposure across AI, cyclical, and structural beneficiaries.

Higher domestic interest rates should support a gradual appreciation in the New Zealand dollar.

However, it is important to emphasize the government’s effort to cut spending by about 1.3% of GDP, which is equivalent to past fiscal reforms.

However, the fiscal deficits for both 2026 and 2027 are really large, and debt-to- GDP will probably increase, mainly in 2027, from around 61% of GDP now.