美国通胀升温，市场押注加息

关键论点

• 核心通胀超预期，受住房（环比0.4%）、机票（1.2%）、二手车（0.7%）以及汽油环比大涨9.1%推动。
• 鉴于官员近期表态，10月加息可能尚未迫近，但期货定价由数据前的约20%升至45%。
• 霍尔木兹海峡局势和科技/AI数据中心建设带来价格压力，美联储加息对此作用有限。
• 3%的温和工资增长、楼市降温及较轻的关税制度支持最终转向，但风险偏向先进一步加息。

对应原文证据

1. We'd suggested we saw slight upside risk to the core figure with the details showing the largest component by weight, shelter, coming in hotter at 0.4% month-on-month after three consecutive softer prints, averaging 0.2% MoM.
2. In terms of the outlook for inflation, much hinges on what happens with the Strait of Hormuz.
3. That said, Federal Reserve rate hikes will have limited impact on these two price drivers.