观点

Therefore, if growth continues to slow and late-cycle headwinds create a further drag on earnings growth, higher refinancing costs for these CCC firms present an acute pain point given their weaker balance sheets.

Preliminary estimates show the number of sales, in rolling 3mth terms, down 6.3%qtr and 15.2%yr.

Preliminary estimates show the number of sales, in rolling 3mth terms, down 6.3%qtr and 15.2%yr.

Meanwhile, investment activity could see a sharp rise towards the end of the year as a result of the drawn-down of EU funds.

Investment spending rose by 0.6%, adding 0.2ppt to growth. Notably, construction investment contracted for the first time since mid-2023, while machinery and equipment investment posted a modest increase of 1.6%, although this was weaker than in recent quarters.

Copper has also remained resilient after recently reaching record levels, with LME copper holding above USD 14,000 per tonne.

LME copper is heading for a ninth consecutive weekly gain and continues to trade within a well-defined uptrend close to record levels

the churn rate, as measured by the quits rate – the proportion of workers quitting to move to a new job – dipped back to just 1.9%. That level is historically consistent with sub-3% year-on-year wage growth.

Another handy ECB index of “wage sensitive” inflation, which I’ve recreated, has fallen over the course of this year.

Supply shocks can push oil higher even when underlying global demand is mediocre.

Venezuela is reopening to more foreign investment and could gradually increase production. It will not replace disrupted Middle Eastern barrels overnight

But if prices remain high enough for long enough to encourage new fields and additional drilling, oilfield services can become a major second-order beneficiary.

That means higher oil prices are not automatically positive. A crude shortage can raise input costs, while shortages of diesel or jet fuel can widen refining margins significantly.

Electricity demand is entering a stronger growth phase as AI data centres, EVs, manufacturing and cooling requirements increase consumption.

Existing nuclear and gas plants can become particularly valuable when electricity supply is constrained.

This is an important structural feature of the theme because it is relatively agnostic about the ultimate generation mix.

If physical supply remains disrupted, upstream producers provide the clearest oil-price sensitivity, while integrated majors offer a more diversified way of expressing the same view.

The opportunity changes if high oil and gas prices persist. Initially, producers capture the higher commodity price. But over time, stronger cash flows and greater confidence in future prices can encourage drilling, field development and infrastructure spending.

For longer-term allocations, we see a stronger case for broadening energy exposure towards the infrastructure required to meet rising electricity demand.

Our bias is therefore to treat traditional oil and gas as an important tactical and diversification allocation, while viewing power generation and infrastructure as the stronger multi-year structural opportunity.

Declines continue to become more widespread with Cotality reporting 93% of capital city suburbs have recorded falls.

Preliminary estimates show the number of sales, in rolling 3mth terms, down 6.3%qtr and 15.2%yr.

Victoria recorded the strongest result, while South Australia also posted gains.

Recent RBA cash rate increases, together with ongoing elevated construction costs, continue to present risks to the outlook.

productivity per hour worked was some 10% below the US level in 2000. Between then and 2019, labour productivity grew by roughly 0.7 percentage points a year in Europe compared with 1.2ppts in the US, widening the gap by around 0.5ppts each year. What's more, the divergence accelerated between 2018 and 2025, reaching an estimated 2.1ppts per year, with productivity growing by 2.4% in the US compared to just 0.3% in Europe.

when the ICT sectors are stripped out, the annual growth gap for 2000-2019 falls to 0.2ppts from the above-mentioned 0.5ppts. Similarly, about 45% of US total factor productivity growth between 1988 and 2023 can be traced back to the IT sector.

Europe has been moving in the right direction. Its institutions remain imperfect, but reforms that once seemed politically impossible are now part of the policy landscape.

At just below 90%, government debt-to-GDP ratios in the eurozone (83% for the EU) are just below 2012 levels. This compares to a 20ppt increase in the US, where concerns around the central bank and government debt are building.

frontier regions such as Paris, Munich, Stockholm and parts of Ireland combine world-leading innovation ecosystems, deep talent pools, and concentrations of advanced services and corporate headquarters.

It offers opportunities at both ends of the spectrum: catch-up regions with room to converge and frontier regions operating at the forefront of innovation.

Yields may stay under upward pressure if the 2027 budget fails to deliver credible consolidation, particularly at the long end of the curve.

However, if no significant fiscal consolidation measures are announced in the 2027 budget, France’s sovereign credit rating is likely to be downgraded.

El Niño also raises concerns about higher cocoa and sugar prices, posing an additional inflation risk, particularly for 2027.

Our current stance leans toward cautious pessimism rather than bearishness.

A fiscally constrained US government, a Fed we believe is on the verge of raising rates, and valuations still priced for a fairly benign outcome all combine to leave the market with very little margin for error.

MacroScope’s style factor positioning remains dominant on Momentum and favouring shares that have already been going up, but we have also noted a nudge up for Quality-oriented factors, covering investment quality, earnings quality and profitability.

By industry it favours fertilisers, biotechnology and oil exploration, while turning most negative on mortgage lenders, semiconductor equipment makers and chip firms.

the energy-driven acceleration in inflation increases the risk of a consumption disappointment

All in all, after today’s data releases, we confirm our base case call for both average GDP growth at 0.9% and average inflation at 2.7% in 2026.

Our latest economic growth forecast for 2026 projects a 1.7% increase.

However, the nearly four-year-long stagnation in capital stock and the deteriorating demographic situation make it increasingly unlikely that the Hungarian economy will be able to sustain growth above 3% without suffering a significant loss of internal and/or external balance in the long run.

Export growth may be constrained by geopolitical uncertainties, rising production costs and potential supply disruptions, the signs of which are not yet evident in the second-quarter statistics.

Net exports alone slowed the economy’s year-on-year performance by 4.5ppts, a figure offset by a 6.2ppt contribution from domestic demand.

Yesterday’s new proposal and our nominal GDP outlook imply that the government deficit would reach 3.5% of GDP next year, after adjusting for the estimated surplus of municipalities.

the August ISM manufacturing index is a touch softer than expected at 54.6 in August, down from 55.6 (consensus 55.2).

Escalation in the trade war with the U.S. or conflict in the Middle East could further undermine confidence.

Kazinnik and Sinclair find that public pressure moves Committee voting 10% closer to the administration’s view.

The AI sim results suggest that if the Chair’s proposal is too far outside the consensus, the other FOMC members will ignore it .

Creating a simWarsh is complicated because he provides little information about his reaction function and his commentary is terse.

Banks should benefit from the higher-for-longer rates.