观点

CommBank expects national dwelling prices to fall around 9% from their peak this cycle.

CommBank now expects peak-to-trough declines of around 13% in Sydney and 12% in Melbourne.

Annual growth slowed to 2.7%yr.

CommBank now expects prices in Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide to fall by around 8% from peak to trough.

If the cash rate instead remained at 4.60% throughout 2027, CommBank estimates national dwelling prices would be broadly flat over the year.

Brisbane and Adelaide have each recorded three consecutive monthly price falls, while Perth has fallen for four months in a row.

For now, however, the combination of weaker momentum and higher borrowing costs means CommBank expects the housing adjustment to continue through the first half of next year.

Brent has moved back above USD 92 per barrel, while already tight refined-product markets remain particularly exposed.

Brent crude has fallen back below USD 90 per barrel and is heading for its first weekly decline in three weeks as traders cautiously price an improvement in Gulf exports and the possibility of an eventual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

Even with refiners operating at such high rates, gasoline inventories fell to their lowest seasonal level since 2012, at 209.4 million barrels. Distillate inventories also plunged to a record low of 105.6 million barrels.

A diplomatic breakthrough in the Middle East could remove additional risk premium from energy

Oil prices were down slightly in July but still elevated, persisting the energy trade surplus.

Recovery will become more visible by 2027 when we forecast transactions to grow 6.7% to 483,600 units, and the benchmark value edges higher by 0.8% to $800,700.

Recovery will become more visible by 2027 when we forecast transactions to grow 6.7% to 483,600 units, and the benchmark value edges higher by 0.8% to $800,700.

Similarly, we see 2027 home values (RPS Home Price Index) edging higher by 0.7% in Ontario and 0.5% in B.C. for the first time in two years.

Similarly, we see 2027 home values (RPS Home Price Index) edging higher by 0.7% in Ontario and 0.5% in B.C. for the first time in two years.

It will take longer for the condo market segment to turn around, however. Abundant inventory in the Toronto and Vancouver areas, and investor apathy are bound to keep condo prices downward possibly into 2027.

Japan’s retail sales rose 4.0% YoY in July, accelerating from a revised 0.6% increase in June and beating market expectations of 3.0%.

The sector's strength defies concerns that a slowing economy and a weakening consumer would weigh on discretionary travel activity.

Our CBA Household Spending Insights data shows a clear downward trend in spending growth. Last year, annual spending growth was running at around 6%, it has now fallen to below 5%.

That said, a decline in willingness to purchase durable goods suggests consumers remain cautious, preferring to postpone major purchases until inflation cools further.

The model is also short the most volatile shares and the hardest ones to sell quickly, avoiding the exposures that tend to hurt most when a crowded trade unwinds.

The latest positioning data shows that speculators reduced their net long in ICE Brent by 28,299 lots to 223,598 lots as of last Tuesday. The move was driven mainly by longs liquidating.

Following the US–Japan joint FX intervention, there has been some unwinding of long USD positions, mainly against JPY.

Overall, our analysis suggests that the market is still broadly long USD against currencies such as EUR and NZD. This positioning would remain a risk to USD if the US macro deterioration theme gains traction

Hawkish rate repricing driving a bear flattening , quality HY should prove more resilient than duration heavy US IG. The move is about rates, not weaker credit.

Maintain quality bias in HY , where lower duration with sufficient carry to offset potential mark-to-market volatility.

Underweight excessive duration in IG , where greater rates sensitivity and limited spread cushion create an unfavourable risk-reward.

Carry, rather than spread compression for returns, given already tight credit valuations.

According to the updated figures, the 2026 deficit is now expected to reach 7.1% of GDP, compared with the previously projected 6.5% of GDP, while the deficit-to-GDP ratio is expected to remain unchanged in 2027.

The Ministry of Finance still paints a deficit-to-GDP ratio below 3% in 2027, yet this is subject to the potential exclusion of some defence-related expenses.

Poland is on course to run the EU's largest fiscal deficit in 2027 at 7.1% of GDP.

The 2026 deficit estimate was revised to 7.1% of GDP from 6.5% of GDP projected in the 2026 budget act due to, among other things, the fiscal costs of the temporarily lowered excise duty and VAT rate on fuels.

Crude rose for a second session as fresh hostilities between the US and Iran raised concerns about prolonged disruptions to energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz. Brent traded back above USD 91 after US forces struck an island in the Strait, prompting Iran to retaliate with attacks on the UAE and Jordan.

Oil held onto Thursday’s gains, with Brent rising towards USD 90 as prospects for a US-Iran agreement to fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz faded.

On geopolitics, oil prices moved higher after the Wall Street Journal reported that President Trump was not interested in returning to the terms of a June agreement with Iran. Brent was up over 2% at around USD89.4 per barrel.

Listed crypto rebounded sharply from Friday's slide. Circle led at 9.65%, with BitMine 6.39% higher, Coinbase 5.31%, IREN 4.70% and Strategy 4.42%, while the spot bitcoin and ether funds each added close to 2%.

The listed crypto complex was sold hard on Friday even as the coins barely moved over the weekend. IREN fell 12.53% after fiscal fourth-quarter results in which AI cloud revenue overtook mining for the first time but impairments weighed.

US spot bitcoin funds drew about USD 924 million over the 24 to 28 August week, keeping the month’s intake above USD 3 billion. Flow was uneven, with IBIT taking USD 228 million against redemptions elsewhere.

Gradual growth recovery and inflation set to ease in 2027 – France is expected to post GDP growth at 0.6% in 2026 and around 1.0% in 2027.

Added to which, the war has actually helped Europe’s manufacturers, winning orders from Asian competitors more acutely affected by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. That presumably won’t last.

Really, though, growth has surprised on the upside largely because inflation hasn't. It’s as simple as that.

the real estate sector has now been contracting for 10 consecutive quarters.

The residential property market lost momentum in July, with the official residential price index declining by 0.5% MoM (0.2% MoM in June), bringing an end to a 13-month winning streak.

Market activity weakened markedly, with total residential transactions falling 41.7% MoM to 4,462 cases, highlighting a sharp deterioration in buyer participation.

That said, Motoriste pose themselves as a classical central-right party, with fiscal responsibility representing one of their priorities during the election campaign. This may end up as a political manoeuvre in which the 3% deficit looks wonderful in the end.

The first round of the Brazilian presidential election takes place on 4 October. Expect USD/BRL to be bounced around by polling results before then.

On France, our rates strategy team are focusing on French-German bond spreads staying near recent wides as the French presidential campaign gets underway.

A stricter parent -level capital framework would strengthen loss-absorption capacity and structural resilience, but could constrain capital flexibility, distributions and returns.

We see limited debt servicing risk for most corporate issuers.