全球经济 · 未来一周全球展望

关键论点

• 加拿大通胀数据应能为加拿大央行提供所需的全部证据，所有通胀指标均处于或高于2%目标，传统核心通胀连续四个月接近3%月率季调年化。
• 加拿大央行企业调查可能跟随更高频的通胀预期指标走高，例如已上升的CFIB小企业指标。
• 10月全球PMI将首次揭示强劲的三季度全球增长动能是否延续至四季度，关注投入成本、企业定价能力及供应链瓶颈。
• 英国央行会议前的英国数据将受到关注，以寻找薪资和价格的第二轮效应；此前能源价格持续高企及期货曲线上移已令市场定价11月加息25个基点。

对应原文证据

1. THE GLOBAL WEEK AHEAD October 16, 2026 Global Economics 2 It Will Only Make Canada Stronger Six years ago, an aging Madonna called Canada ‘boring.’ I can’t say I’ve ever been a fan of hers, but readers of a note like this one certainly wouldn’t complain about a lack of anything interesting happening on the northern side of Lake Ontario. · 2026
2. The suite of readings could be highly impactful to expectations for the October 28 th and subsequent decisions by the Bank of Canada.
3. CPI is forecast to post a gain of 0.2% m/m NSA, as per the polling convention, and 3.2% y/y (3.0% prior).