观点

A fiscally constrained US government, a Fed we believe is on the verge of raising rates, and valuations still priced for a fairly benign outcome all combine to leave the market with very little margin for error.

MacroScope’s style factor positioning remains dominant on Momentum and favouring shares that have already been going up, but we have also noted a nudge up for Quality-oriented factors, covering investment quality, earnings quality and profitability.

By industry it favours fertilisers, biotechnology and oil exploration, while turning most negative on mortgage lenders, semiconductor equipment makers and chip firms.

the energy-driven acceleration in inflation increases the risk of a consumption disappointment

All in all, after today’s data releases, we confirm our base case call for both average GDP growth at 0.9% and average inflation at 2.7% in 2026.

Our latest economic growth forecast for 2026 projects a 1.7% increase.

However, the nearly four-year-long stagnation in capital stock and the deteriorating demographic situation make it increasingly unlikely that the Hungarian economy will be able to sustain growth above 3% without suffering a significant loss of internal and/or external balance in the long run.

Export growth may be constrained by geopolitical uncertainties, rising production costs and potential supply disruptions, the signs of which are not yet evident in the second-quarter statistics.

Net exports alone slowed the economy’s year-on-year performance by 4.5ppts, a figure offset by a 6.2ppt contribution from domestic demand.

Yesterday’s new proposal and our nominal GDP outlook imply that the government deficit would reach 3.5% of GDP next year, after adjusting for the estimated surplus of municipalities.

the August ISM manufacturing index is a touch softer than expected at 54.6 in August, down from 55.6 (consensus 55.2).

Escalation in the trade war with the U.S. or conflict in the Middle East could further undermine confidence.

Kazinnik and Sinclair find that public pressure moves Committee voting 10% closer to the administration’s view.

The AI sim results suggest that if the Chair’s proposal is too far outside the consensus, the other FOMC members will ignore it .

Creating a simWarsh is complicated because he provides little information about his reaction function and his commentary is terse.

Banks should benefit from the higher-for-longer rates.

The Swiss National Bank reiterated support for requiring UBS Group AG ("UBS") to fully capitalise its foreign subsidiaries with CET1 at the parent level.

Implementation details, transition arrangements and the final legislative outcome remain the key uncertainties for creditors .

We estimate that the Central Bank will revise its 2026 GDP growth forecast significantly lower in next week’s Monetary Policy Report (MPR), moving from the current 1.0%–1.75% range to between 0.25% and 0.75%.

Tech is only about 9% or so. And so the base from which this debt is growing is relatively low.

technology represents only around 3.6% of their holdings. What that means is that probably some of the strongest interest and strongest appetite for exposure to tech and to U.S. tech in particular is coming out of Europe.

if these AI investments pan out well, we could see significant productivity improvements. If there's overbuilding, there could be some challenges there, and that also raises questions around contagion risk and financial stability

could potentially leave a lot of downside for incumbents that have built businesses and built competitive advantages that AI could potentially chip away at.

there's still sufficient demand out there, but the burden of proof is going to continue to be on the issuer to demonstrate that the cash generation is there to fund the debt issuance.

This is undoubtedly an unfavourable development and, if it persists, could eventually trigger a response from credit rating agencies.

Estimates cited in the playbook suggest the number of family offices has risen from around 45 in 2018 to nearly 300 by 2024–25.

India now also has more than 19,000 ultra-high-net-worth individuals with assets above USD 30 million, a figure projected to exceed 25,000 by 2031.

Mid-sized and large Indian family offices managed an estimated INR 70,000 crore in 2024, with this figure projected to grow at a 14% Compound Annual Growth Rate over three years.

In 2025, India accounted for nearly 30% of IPOs globally by deal count, while Offer-for-Sale transactions represented more than 60% of IPO proceeds.

More than 70% of family offices in one study acknowledged the need for governance-led processes, including dashboards, performance metrics, and formal audit trails.

Such structures will be crucial as an estimated USD 1.3–1.5 trillion is expected to pass between generations in India over the coming decade.

Next-generation leaders are tilting towards areas such as AI, renewable energy, and digital infrastructure.

More advanced family offices are exploring AI for investment screening, data analysis, performance tracking, due diligence, compliance, and risk management.

With family members, businesses, and investments spread across jurisdictions, cross-border planning is becoming a core capability.

Labor market signals have been mixed, while weak hiring and declining labor participation rate indicate no reacceleration.

Core PCE rose after the Iran War but has shown signs of slowing…

Direct loans grew by around 8.7% y/y in July, above the 8.3% y/y recorded in June, extending the uptrend observed since October 2021.

medium business loans posted a stronger performance than in the previous month, accelerating from 11.7% y/y to 13.1% y/y.

the micro business loans portfolio remained in negative territory, although it continued to recover, improving from -10.6% y/y in June to -10.0% y/y in July.

with the exception of corporate loans, whose growth eased from 5.9% y/y in June to 5.1% y/y in July.

Mortgages remained stable, growing at around 7.7% annually and recording flows broadly in line with the annual average.

Our base case remains that continued progress in underlying inflation will allow the Fed to leave rates unchanged this year.

we believe he left little doubt that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data for August that will be released just a few days before the September Fed meeting will be crucial.

our forecast for the FOMC to leave rates unchanged

“I would be hard-pressed to describe broad financial conditions as restrictive”

the Fed’s numerical inflation “firm and fixed” target remains 2% as measured by the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, and that “price stability is not self-executing, nor is inflation necessarily mean-reverting.”

New Zealand: RBNZ policy decision, ANZ business confidence, building permits, ToT, building work.

Wed 9/2 20:00 US * Fed Releases Beige Book

Tue 9/1 10:30 EA ECB's Kocher Speaks in Alpbach 14:30 EA ECB's Nagel Speaks in Asheville, US 17:30 EA ECB's Vujcic Speaks in Berlin

Fri 9/4 10:50 UK * BOE Governor Speaks in London