观点

We therefore continue to expect annual average wage growth of around 9-10% in 2026, with the outcome likely to be closer to the upper end of this range.

We expect residential fixed investment to fall 5.2% q/q in Q3.

European Macro │16 October 2026 FX Daily Snapshot European Macro Weekly 16 October 2026 • Macro focus –Revisiting the UK’s growth outlook: UK GDP data for August delivered another upside surprise, with monthly growth of 0.1% M/M defying expectations of a contraction and lifting the 3m/3m rate to a solid 0.7%.

Annual growth has now exceeded 2% for the first time since the post-pandemic rebound, and we are tracking 2026 full- year growth at 1.5%, above the IMF's latest estimate.

Monthly growth of 0.1% M/M in August defied expectations of a slowdown (we had pencilled in a figure of -0.2% M/M) and, alongside upward revision to previous numbers, leaves the 3m/3m growth rate at a solid 0.7%.

The latest numbers certainly reinforce that narrative with annual growth exceeding 2% for the first time since the post-pandemic rebound period.

In terms of the growth outlook, we note that the IMF upgraded its 2026 figure to 1.3% earlier this week.

We are pencilling in a small contraction in the September monthly figure, but the Q3 growth rate as a whole still looks set to come in around 0.6-0.7% Q/Q.

We also see scope for a similar growth rate (~1.5%) in 2027 given stronger momentum into the new year and more credible hints of a productivity improvement.

Putting it all together, we see at least some circumstantial evidence that the diffusion of AI through the UK's services-orientated economy may be occurring relatively European Macro │16 October 2026 quickly.

We expect an uptick to 3.5% on the back of higher energy costs.

Wage growth is down at 3%, and James K reckons it could go even lower.

Right now, pricing suggests around a 30% chance of a rate hike, with the 9 December meeting seen as the most likely opportunity for such a move.

We expect both manufacturing and services PMIs to decline, although the composite index should remain above the 50-point threshold.

Mar - kets are pricing in almost a full rate hike by year-end, with the Bank’s next rate decision on October 28th Monday will also bring the BoC’s quarterly business and consumer surveys.

The 5-year Govern - ment of Canada bond yield ended the week flat but remained 15 basis points below its September peak.

Chipmaker TSMC offered a more cautious outlook, while the producer price index in the US rose 1.3% in September, its largest monthly increase in four and a half years and well above the 0.5% consensus forecast.

Our analysis of US stock and bond portfolios found that a conventional 60/40 portfolio had a maximum recovery period of 4.2 years from bear market drawdowns since 1945, compared with 6.2 years for an all-equity portfolio.

THE GLOBAL WEEK AHEAD October 16, 2026 Global Economics 2 It Will Only Make Canada Stronger Six years ago, an aging Madonna called Canada ‘boring.’ I can’t say I’ve ever been a fan of hers, but readers of a note like this one certainly wouldn’t complain about a lack of anything interesting happening on the northern side of Lake Ontario.

The suite of readings could be highly impactful to expectations for the October 28 th and subsequent decisions by the Bank of Canada.

Chart 5 highlights one example of this point especially when married to the relatively recent surge in data centers ( here ) with hundreds more expected particularly in Alberta.

Since sales declined at a slightly faster pace than new listings in September, the national sales -to-new listings ratio modestly eased from 49.1% (sa) in August to 48.8% in September, still trending in the lower half of the balanced national conditions range as it has been doing since the end of 2024.

John's) 63.2 10.0 3.0 1.1 Sellers' 9.1 5.1 3.7 7.0 -8.1 1.7 A sales-to-new listings ratio below the long-term mean less than one deviation is considered a buyer's market and likely to see a flat or downward trend in prices over the next six months.

Sales-to-New Listings Ratio (%; S.A) Unit Sales (%) Avg Sale Price (%) New Listings (%) 1A market is tilted towards sellers, and likely to witness upward pressure on prices, if its sales-to-new listings ratio greater than the long-term mean plus one standard deviation.

CHART 2: KOREA AND TAIWAN EQUITY SELLOFFS RESULT IN DOWNSIDE PRESSURE ON KRW AND TWD Source: Bloomberg, MUFG GMR In Japan, Bank of Japan Board Member Junko Koeda reinforced the case for further tightening, with a more explicit warning against excessive caution than in her previous speech.

Her latest remarks placed greater emphasis on upside price risks and still-accommodative financial conditions, while she judged the neutral rate to be considerably above 1%.

Malaysia’s GDP growth is expected to ease to 5.1%yoy from 6.0%yoy in 2Q.

The GDP data again was stronger than expected –the m/m gain of just 0.1% was modest but still better than expected, helping the 3mth/3mth rate to 0.7%, 0.2ppt stronger than expected.

The 3mth/3mth gain was helped by services activity although the one-month reading was flat in August and could be a sign of weakening momentum.

The breakdown of the services sector showed consumer- facing weakness while a Bloomberg Intelligence survey released yesterday indicated 3 16th October 2026 vulnerabilities that could see a slowing in the months ahead.

While the consensus expects Bank Indonesia to keep rates on hold at 5.75%, MSCI’s announcement on Friday (16 October) that Indonesia’s continued emerging-market classification was no longer appropriate sent the JCI down more than 10% and put pressure on IDR.

For exports, the growth accelerated by abig margin of 11.3ppts to 36.3%yoy, beating market expectations of a flat growth.

This is consistent with the stronger September PMI readings, particularly in construction, pointing to potential stabilization in FAI and Q3 GDP growth in next week’s data.

We expect the unemployment rate to grind higher into 2027 as tighter financial conditions and cost-of-living pressures restrict activity growth to a below-trend pace.

Although, our forecast peak is near at 4.8%, due by Q2 2027.

Within the core components, core goods prices gained 0.3% after being broadly unchanged over the past 6 months (0.7%yr).

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(The RBA estimated that around 16% of businesses imposed surcharges.) Inevitably, though, some firms have lifted their prices by more than any reasonable estimate of the merchant service fee that the surcharge was meant to cover.

(set out in Article 49(2)of the Order; (c) other persons to whom it may lawfully be communicated in accordance with the Order or (d) any persons to whom it may otherwise lawfully be made (all such persons together being referred to as “relevant persons”).

The material may contain an ‘investment recommendation’ and/or ‘information recommending or suggesting an investment’, both as defined in Regulation (EU) No 596/2014 (including as applicable in the United Kingdom) (“MAR”).

• 2.82 million Australians now hold ETFs, more than double the number in 2020.

• 33% of intending investors expect to invest in ETFs over the next 12 months.