观点

SAP weekly and daily, with the 186 and 220 strikes and the 20 November 2026 expiry marked; the shaded area is the platform's projected price range.

Selling a cash-secured put means agreeing to buy 100 shares at the strike if SAP is below it at expiry, in exchange for a premium collected today, with the cash set aside.

A big fall in SAP would do the opposite and push the put’s price up (Source: our estimate based on Saxo prices, as of 15 October 2026).

Risk: the EUR 387 is the whole upside, however far SAP rallies.

Upside above EUR 220 is given away until expiry.

After a 57% rise, a reasonable investor may expect the report to disappoint.

In our view the put may not suit that investor: EUR 387 is unlikely to compensate for buying into a falling share.

A holder who expects another 10% jump gives that jump away with the covered call.

Higher policy rates are therefore to be expected, though softening economic output will limit how high they go Producer prices set to accelerate Czech industrial producer prices surged 3.7% year-on-year in September and gained 1.2% month-on-month, with both figures coming in above market expectations.

Taking the latest data into account, we expect annual industrial producer price growth to peak above 6% in January, while agricultural producer price growth is set to climb above 12% by the middle of next year.

Nevertheless, household consumption growth this year is projected to be slower than in 2025.

Regarding fiscal policy, although the central bank is aware of the 2027 budget, as the NBH governor sits on the Fiscal Council that reviews and approves it, no public information will be available on this.

Turkey: Central bank expected to cut rates by 100bp Thursday brings Turkey's October interest rate decision.

He also noted that the first “field hearing” by one of five task forces assigned the task of opining on AI and its effects on productivity and jobs will be held in San Francisco on November 16 th .

Lutnick reportedly opposes significant cuts to the 25% tariff on imports of automobiles and 50% tariffs on imports of steel and aluminum and derivative products from Mexico.

President Sheinbaum has guided that the original list of 54 tariff and nontariff issues that the US brought up has been reduced to a still significant list of 12 items and clearly large tariffs remain on that list.

Canada will also release housing starts for the month of September (8:15amET).

US industrial output is expected to register a small gain in September’s reading (9:15amET).

September producer prices rose 1.3% on the month against 0.5% expected, the largest increase since March 2022, energy-led at 10.8%.

Retail sales beat at 0.8%, though petrol stations carried most of it and the control group added 0.1%.

VIX 16.46, 20-day realised volatility 9.37%, stable, the index 0.48% above its 50-day average.

Option-implied expected move for each report day against the average move after the last eight reports, with implied-volatility rank and last close, as of 16 October 2026.

Goldman Sachs came in at 0.1x its expected move, JPMorgan 0.3x, ASML 0.3x and TSMC 0.5x.

• Tail risk signal: SKEW rose 2.00% to 160.45, a new high above all 60 stored sessions, on a day the 30-day measure fell: far downside protection got dearer as index volatility got cheaper.

We therefore continue to expect annual average wage growth of around 9-10% in 2026, with the outcome likely to be closer to the upper end of this range.

We expect residential fixed investment to fall 5.2% q/q in Q3.

European Macro │16 October 2026 FX Daily Snapshot European Macro Weekly 16 October 2026 • Macro focus –Revisiting the UK’s growth outlook: UK GDP data for August delivered another upside surprise, with monthly growth of 0.1% M/M defying expectations of a contraction and lifting the 3m/3m rate to a solid 0.7%.

Annual growth has now exceeded 2% for the first time since the post-pandemic rebound, and we are tracking 2026 full- year growth at 1.5%, above the IMF's latest estimate.

Monthly growth of 0.1% M/M in August defied expectations of a slowdown (we had pencilled in a figure of -0.2% M/M) and, alongside upward revision to previous numbers, leaves the 3m/3m growth rate at a solid 0.7%.

The latest numbers certainly reinforce that narrative with annual growth exceeding 2% for the first time since the post-pandemic rebound period.

In terms of the growth outlook, we note that the IMF upgraded its 2026 figure to 1.3% earlier this week.

We are pencilling in a small contraction in the September monthly figure, but the Q3 growth rate as a whole still looks set to come in around 0.6-0.7% Q/Q.

We also see scope for a similar growth rate (~1.5%) in 2027 given stronger momentum into the new year and more credible hints of a productivity improvement.

Putting it all together, we see at least some circumstantial evidence that the diffusion of AI through the UK's services-orientated economy may be occurring relatively European Macro │16 October 2026 quickly.

We expect an uptick to 3.5% on the back of higher energy costs.

Wage growth is down at 3%, and James K reckons it could go even lower.

Right now, pricing suggests around a 30% chance of a rate hike, with the 9 December meeting seen as the most likely opportunity for such a move.

We expect both manufacturing and services PMIs to decline, although the composite index should remain above the 50-point threshold.

Mar - kets are pricing in almost a full rate hike by year-end, with the Bank’s next rate decision on October 28th Monday will also bring the BoC’s quarterly business and consumer surveys.

The 5-year Govern - ment of Canada bond yield ended the week flat but remained 15 basis points below its September peak.

Chipmaker TSMC offered a more cautious outlook, while the producer price index in the US rose 1.3% in September, its largest monthly increase in four and a half years and well above the 0.5% consensus forecast.

Our analysis of US stock and bond portfolios found that a conventional 60/40 portfolio had a maximum recovery period of 4.2 years from bear market drawdowns since 1945, compared with 6.2 years for an all-equity portfolio.

THE GLOBAL WEEK AHEAD October 16, 2026 Global Economics 2 It Will Only Make Canada Stronger Six years ago, an aging Madonna called Canada ‘boring.’ I can’t say I’ve ever been a fan of hers, but readers of a note like this one certainly wouldn’t complain about a lack of anything interesting happening on the northern side of Lake Ontario.