观点

Higher oil prices have pushed goods inflation higher, however, there has been little to no second-round effects.

A more prolonged period of energy tensions could make it more likely that the inflationary effects we are not currently observing will spread .

They also explicitly warned that “upside risks to inflation have increased” in statement codified fashion and in Governor Macklem’s opening remarks.

The proposal also includes a 5-9% rise in public sector wages, while the government last week approved minimum wage increases of 11.2% in 2027 and 8% in 2028. This puts the CNB’s 5.7% wage-growth forecast at risk.

Ditto for inflation at 3% y/y whereas the BoC had forecast 2.7% for Q3.

do expect core inflation to rise further in the months ahead.

the prices paid component remains very firm at 71.1, indicating input costs, such as energy, commodities and semiconductors, continue to increase at a rapid pace.

A gradual resumption of oil supplies should reinforce the disinflationary trend evident in recent US data.

While there was an encouraging drop in the core inflation rate on Tuesday, signalling that second-round effects remain contained, this does not take away the pressure looking ahead.

We note that upcoming methodological revisions to the calculation of prices for digital goods and financial services could lower PCE inflation by 0.2 percentage points.

CommBank expects US inflation to remain above the Federal Reserve's 2% target as a result.

German headline inflation came in at 2.9% year-on-year in August, from 2.8% YoY in July.

but the upcoming CPI data due September 11 will also be key.

July CPI exceeded expectations sequentially and annually, across both the headline and trimmed mean measures.

Core inflation remained unchanged at 2.4% YoY

oil prices would stay higher for longer, pushing up headline inflation to above 3% and keeping it there at least until year-end.

However, strong statistical base effects in fuel prices may bring CPI inflation down towards the NBP's 2.5% target around the turn of the first and second quarters of 2027.

Inflation is expected to peak at lower levels, but remain above target in major economies with geopolitical tensions and climate patterns still posing risks to energy and food prices.

CommBank says a sustained increase in energy inflation could also spill over into underlying inflation, especially if demand remains strong.

Our analysis suggests construction activity continues to lead new dwelling purchase inflation with a meaningful lag (Figure 3), implying housing-related CPI pressures may remain sticky even as the housing approvals cycle cools.

services inflation slowed down for the second month in a row, to 2.8% YoY, from 2.9% YoY in July.

the current inflation picture remains structurally different from the inflation wave in 2022.

There were very little signs of knock-on or indirect effects of higher energy prices on the rest of the economy.

Average CPI inflation in EMs reached 6.1% y/y in July vs. 6.4% in June.

We expect inflation to remain elevated over the coming months, close to the upper limit of the National Bank of Poland's target range.

The Producer Price Index (PPI) growth accelerated to 9.7% YoY in July 2026 from 9.2% in June, with stronger growth in mining and manufacturing.

Euro Area: HICP inflation, unemployment rate, retail sales.

Largely driven by the 23% increase in the minimum wage and the conflict in Iran, we currently forecast inflation at 6.6% in 2026, above the target range.

Going forward, El Niño could push inflation higher in late 2026 and H1 2027 through higher electricity and food prices.

Inflation also increased in August, as expected, rising to 2.4% from 2.1% in July, largely because of higher energy prices.

From a quick glance at the result, you wouldn’t know there had been a war at all. The inflation rate of this basket has barely budged.

Quite the opposite. Food inflation is trending down – and it’s virtually zero. Here in Britain, the level of food prices is actually lower than it was three months ago.

We expect tariff effects on inflation to slowly ebb by year-end.

the recent rise in fuel prices and the risks of higher gas prices in the coming months call for caution, both in terms of growth and inflation.

Monday also brings August CPI inflation, which probably inched up to 3.1% YoY from 3.0% YoY in July.

However, energy prices are still considerably higher than they were before the conflict. This means inflation may decline more slowly and unevenly than previously expected.

We expect headline inflation in the Philippines to soften modestly to 6.0% YoY amid lower retail fuel prices.

Core inflation pressures, though, should remain elevated, with food inflation continuing to pick up.

Meanwhile, the market expects headline CPI inflation to accelerate to 3.2% YoY in August, from 2.8% in July.

Tokyo CPI excluding fresh food rose 1.8% year-on-year in August, accelerating for a third consecutive month and strengthening the case for a Bank of Japan increase, with September now in focus.

Tokyo CPI rose 1.9% YoY in August from 1.8% in July, in line with consensus.

Today’s remarks also indicate that Chairman Warsh is closely focusing on the headline PCE deflator as his preferred inflation metric

Expected price levels have fallen slightly in manufacturing (from 17.8 to 16.4), in the wholesale and retail trade (from 22.6 to 22.1) and in construction (from 9.4 to 8.4), whilst they have risen in the services sector (from 13.7 to 14.1), although the sector’s index remains well below its previous peak, reached last April.

Additionally, recent inflation data showed tentative signs that stronger AI-related demand may be contributing to price pressures.

Central banks are maintaining tightening bias, however, it does not look like the energy price shock is going to bring significantly higher interest rates.

The Bank of Canada (BoC) left its policy rate unchanged at 2.25%, in line with expectations.

Our base case remains that the Fed stays on hold through year-end, with labor and manufacturing data yet to make a compelling case for tightening policy.

it struck out reference to how “the current policy rate remains appropriate.” That omission speaks volumes when combined with the next point.

If growth continues to prove resilient, policymakers are likely to feel comfortable maintaining a restrictive stance.

If activity begins to slow more sharply, expectations for further tightening could diminish.