观点

Third, in case of market reaction (which is highly probable), the likely increase of risk premium on French public bonds would imply an increase of costs rather than benefits.

Markets are aware of the difficulties involved in fiscal adjustment under the current political circumstances, including difficult cohabitation between the government and the president and next year's parliamentary elections. In our view, however, the fiscal plans should provide some reassurance to financial markets. Concerns about next year's budget have been reflected, among other things, in elevated spreads, including long-term asset swaps.

First, without changes in the Treaty on the European Union, any form of public debt restructuring would be legally challenged by euro area partners.

Second, the non-respect by France of key founding principles surrounding the euro area and its monetary policy could lead the market to question future participation of France to the euro (implying the resurgence of the (Frexit) redenomination risk).

We project headline inflation to average 2.8% year-over-year and core inflation to average 2.4% year-over-year in 2026.

Foreign outflows eased to USD64mn in the week to 30 August from USD124mn previously, with selling moderating in both Saudi and Dubai.

Structural drivers including demographics, talent availability, digital infrastructure investment, Make in India and Production Linked Incentive (PLI) schemes continue to strengthen India’s position as an investment destination.

As per a Confederation of Indian Industry (CII) report over 160 Indian companies have collectively generated over USD40 billion of investment in tangible investments across the US.

Indian companies are pursuing growth in the US through acquisitions, partnerships and strategic investments, reinforcing the US’s position as a key destination for Indian outbound capital.

Brent futures rose from USD84/bbl on 25 August to USD89/bbl on 1 September as renewed fighting rebuild the Hormuz risk premium.

Oil prices started the week stronger following the first military strikes between the US and Iran in a month. ICE Brent briefly moved back above US$90/bbl in early morning Asia trading.

GCC CDS were broadly stable over the week, with only small moves across markets.

Abu Dhabi, Saudi Arabia and Bahrain fell on direct attack risk and thinner fiscal cover.

On 1 September, another tanker reported being hit by three projectiles while leaving the Strait.

Further ahead, in 2027–2028, a continued strengthening of domestic demand and an eventual pickup in external demand could lead to GDP growth of around 3.0%.

GDP growth slowed to 1.5% annualized in Q2 (down from 2.1% in Q1), with the headline dragged down by negative contributions from net trade and government. However, consumer spending and business investment grew 4.4% AR, the fastest pace since Q1 2023.

The UK economy grew by 0.4% q/q in Q2, a slight deceleration from the 0.6% seen in Q1. Growth was primarily supported by the services (+0.5%) and construction (+0.3%) sectors.

Our new Economic Overview depicts a recovering economy after a pause at the height of the Iran war.

Growth is expected to strengthen and broaden beyond the external sector that has thus far carried the economy forward.

After today’s batch of data, we are sticking with our forecast for average 2026 GDP growth at 0.9% for the Italian economy.

We expect India's GDP growth to ease modestly to 7.5% year-on-year, but the economy should continue to outperform most regional peers.

We expect Australian GDP growth to slow to 1.8% YoY in 2Q, reflecting ongoing weakness in the housing sector – including declining house prices – and softer residential investment.

According to the latest GDP figures released last Tuesday, the German economy grew even more strongly in the second quarter than previously assumed.

economic output has risen by an average of 0.35% in each of the last three quarters compared to the previous quarter.

Extrapolated over the year, this corresponds to a growth rate of 1.5%, which is significantly higher than the potential growth rate, generally estimated at less than 1%.

The S&P 500 fell 0.3% to 7,686 on Monday, its second straight decline, while the Dow dropped 0.7% to 53,186 and the Nasdaq 100 edged up 0.1%. Rising oil prices and Treasury yields pressured most sectors as renewed US-Iran tensions revived inflation concerns.

The Stoxx 600 fell 0.6% to 651, the Euro Stoxx 50 dropped 1.0% to 6,420 and Germany’s DAX lost 1.2% to 26,258 as higher oil prices and bond yields weighed on risk appetite.

Asian equities traded lower on Tuesday as oil above $90 and rising global bond yields revived inflation concerns.

The S&P 500 fell 0.3%, the Dow slipped less than 0.1% and the Nasdaq 100 dropped 0.7% on Friday as Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish Jackson Hole remarks lifted rate expectations and hit technology shares.

The S&P 500 fell 0.3%, the Dow slipped less than 0.1% and the Nasdaq 100 dropped 0.7% on Friday as Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish Jackson Hole remarks lifted rate expectations and hit technology shares.

Nvidia fell 4.6%, while Marvell Technology sank 10.3% despite beating estimates as its outlook failed to clear elevated AI expectations.

Equity markets gained after fresh earnings data reinforced confidence in the AI boom and helped restore investor sentiment.

US equities closed higher overnight, led by a strong rally in technology shares. Sentiment was partly lifted by strong results and guidance from Nvidia, which reinforced confidence in continued AI-related demand.

We believe resilient economic growth and robust earnings offer room for global equities to move up

employment moderated to 51.2 from 52.8, but remains clear of the 6M average of 49.6.

United States: nonfarm payrolls, unemployment, job openings, ISM PMIs, factory orders, trade, productivity.

The pace of payroll growth has slowed significantly in the wake of recent months’ downward revisions, but we do not interpret this as evidence of labor market slack. Payrolls are becoming a less meaningful gauge of labor market health as record retirements distort the picture.

As of the late, the move lower in the unemployment rate has been a labor force participation story. The tightness that we have been witnessing continues to be a supply story as retirements remain elevated and immigration stays exceptionally low.

A gain of 20k is expected with a downtick in the unemployment rate to 6.3%.

Next Friday, we expect employment to post a smaller 5,000 increase in August, while the unemployment rate holds steady.

Moreover, currently less than 25% of unemployed job seekers were permanently laid off (nearly half of those currently unemployed are new labor market entrants or re-entrants). And the share of employees working part-time for economic reasons has remained anchored despite softer payroll gains.

the recovery in hiring intentions, at a high since 2023, suggests that firms do not view this increase in production as temporary.

In the eurozone, long-end rates have felt the spillover from the US, which has helped push 10y EUR swap rates to close to 3.4%, their highest since autumn 2023

The benchmark German 10-year Bund yield rose more than four basis points to above 3.32%, a 15-year high.

That leaves front-end pricing of the EUR curve more anchored, but gives the long end the leeway to move more with the US for now, seeing some reprieve and getting pulled back from the peaks.

That reprieve could still prove to be temporary.

We believe they are as low as they will get this cycle. Long term rates are, in fact, rising. Upward pressure on global bond yields is impacting Canadian rates. We expect further mild increases through the end of 2027.

The softer ISM and JOLTS reports of Tuesday have left front-end yields still higher on the day, whereas 30y US Treasury bonds managed to edge back from the peak, thus flattening the curve.

investors should not underestimate the uncertainty that Bessent has introduced into the Treasury market.

All that said, we remain agnostic on the long end here, having been bearish all year.